Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 Complete List of At-Large predictions below.
 The past years predictions were 45 out of 55 or 86%.
 
 Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag. 
 
 
 

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division II Championship Tournament

The format for the NCAA Division II Women s Lacrosse Championship is a sixteen-team, single-elimination tournament. Teams must play a minimum of 10 games in-region and have at least a .500 record, and regular-season games tied after regulation must be decided in overtime. Each region (EastAtlantic, South and Midwest) will have six teams, and teams will be paired within region. The prediction is based on the rankings of region record, division record, record against teams with a 50% winning record and sos in-region. See NCAA for more info. Primary Factors for Selecting Teams [1] In-region Division II won-lost results [2] Overall division II won-lost results [3] Strength of schedule in-region [-] Division II Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Results vs. teams with records above .500 [-] Performance indicator (not defined by NCAA) Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability Algorithm

The NCAA will reduce the number of AQ and At-large team invites
by up to 25% for all divisions for 2021

EAST Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Bentley 100.00 1 1 0 26 11 0 0 11 0 0 2 Mercy 100.00 4 11 0 1 8 2 0 12 2 0 3 Roberts Wes 100.00 3 4 0 3 8 1 0 13 1 0 4 Adelphi 0.00 7 31 0 16 9 4 0 9 4 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 AIC 0.00 16 85 0 67 2 9 0 2 9 0 6 Assumption 0.00 6 29 0 45 7 3 0 7 3 0 7 Bridgeport 0.00 15 82 0 62 1 4 0 1 4 0 8 D'Youville 0.00 19 85 0 93 0 6 0 2 9 0 9 Frank Pierce 0.00 8 33 0 89 6 3 0 6 3 0 10 Le Moyne 0.00 2 4 0 22 13 1 0 13 1 0 11 Molloy 0.00 11 50 0 32 3 4 0 4 5 0 12 New Haven 0.00 10 48 0 17 6 7 0 6 7 0 13 Pace 0.00 9 37 0 59 7 4 0 7 4 0 14 S Connecticut 0.00 14 77 0 68 2 6 0 2 6 0 15 SNHU 0.00 17 88 0 34 2 10 0 2 10 0 16 St Anselm 0.00 5 22 0 69 6 2 0 6 2 0 17 St Michaels 0.00 19 93 0 53 0 10 0 1 10 0 18 St Rose 0.00 18 96 0 42 1 11 0 1 11 0 19 St Thomas Aqui 0.00 13 50 0 58 2 5 0 4 5 0 20 Stonehill 0.00 12 62 0 80 3 5 0 3 5 0 ATLANTIC Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 ESU 100.00 5 22 0 6 8 3 0 9 3 0 2 Seton Hill 100.00 3 14 0 10 11 2 0 11 2 0 3 West Chester 100.00 1 1 0 13 12 0 0 13 0 0 4 Bloomsburg 0.00 10 40 0 20 6 6 0 8 6 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Caldwell 0.00 14 82 0 66 2 5 0 2 8 0 6 Chestnut Hill 0.00 18 99 0 56 0 6 0 0 6 0 7 Dominican 0.00 18 99 0 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 Edinboro 0.00 18 67 0 63 0 1 0 1 2 0 9 Felician 0.00 18 99 0 78 0 5 0 0 5 0 10 Gannon 0.00 18 93 0 61 0 9 0 1 10 0 11 Georgian Ct 0.00 1 11 0 19 11 0 0 12 2 0 12 Holy Family 0.00 15 80 0 99 2 6 0 2 7 0 13 Indiana PA 0.00 9 45 0 27 6 5 0 6 6 0 14 Kutztown 0.00 17 97 0 30 1 10 0 1 12 0 15 Lock Haven 0.00 11 63 0 48 4 6 0 4 7 0 16 Mercyhurst 0.00 6 27 0 29 8 4 0 10 4 0 17 Millersville 0.00 16 75 0 38 2 8 0 3 8 0 18 Nyack 0.00 18 99 0 55 0 3 0 0 3 0 19 Post 0.00 8 39 0 101 6 4 0 6 4 0 20 Shippensburg 0.00 12 60 0 25 4 7 0 5 8 0 21 Slippery Rock 0.00 12 54 0 57 4 7 0 5 7 0 22 TJU 0.00 4 21 0 84 9 2 0 10 3 0 23 WilmingtonDE 0.00 6 42 0 95 6 3 0 6 5 0 SOUTH Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Limestone 100.00 4 14 0 7 10 2 0 11 2 0 2 Mt Olive 100.00 2 6 0 14 12 1 0 12 1 0 3 Queens 100.00 1 6 0 5 10 0 0 12 1 0 4 Barton 0.00 11 33 0 96 5 3 0 6 3 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Belmont Abbey 0.00 9 24 0 15 11 4 0 11 4 0 6 Catawba 0.00 29 99 0 97 0 4 0 0 5 0 7 Chowan 0.00 22 77 0 103 2 6 0 2 6 0 8 Coker 0.00 23 75 0 74 2 7 0 3 8 0 9 Converse 0.00 29 99 0 104 0 9 0 0 9 0 10 Emmanuel GA 0.00 29 99 0 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 ERAU 0.00 29 99 0 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 Erskine 0.00 26 89 0 90 1 6 0 1 6 0 13 Florida So 0.00 3 10 0 79 6 1 0 7 1 0 14 Florida Tech 0.00 26 77 0 91 1 6 0 2 6 0 15 Lander 0.00 17 72 0 71 3 6 0 3 7 0 16 Lee 0.00 6 31 0 60 7 2 0 9 4 0 17 Lees-McRae 0.00 17 52 0 76 2 4 0 3 4 0 18 Lenoir-Rhyne 0.00 12 54 0 36 5 5 0 5 7 0 19 Lincoln Mem 0.00 17 74 0 47 2 4 0 2 5 0 20 Lynn 0.00 26 80 0 92 1 6 0 2 7 0 21 Mars Hill 0.00 23 82 0 49 2 7 0 2 8 0 22 Montevallo 0.00 12 33 0 98 4 4 0 8 4 0 23 N Greenville 0.00 15 52 0 23 6 8 0 6 8 0 24 Newberry 0.00 14 58 0 77 4 5 0 4 6 0 25 Rollins 0.00 4 11 0 46 5 1 0 6 1 0 26 S Wesleyan 0.00 17 67 0 83 4 8 0 4 8 0 27 Shorter 0.00 29 99 0 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 St Leo 0.00 16 45 0 54 3 5 0 5 5 0 29 Tampa 0.00 10 20 0 51 5 2 0 7 2 0 30 Tusculum 0.00 25 89 0 102 1 5 0 1 6 0 31 UAH 0.00 8 17 0 70 6 2 0 12 3 0 32 Wingate 0.00 7 19 0 21 10 3 0 11 3 0 33 Young Harris 0.00 21 67 0 4 3 7 0 4 8 0 MIDWEST Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Indianapolis 100.00 3 6 0 8 11 1 0 12 1 0 2 Lindenwood 100.00 1 1 0 12 12 0 0 12 0 0 3 Regis CO 100.00 2 6 0 2 12 1 0 12 1 0 4 Adams State 0.00 26 99 0 85 0 8 0 0 8 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 AldersonBroad 0.00 15 63 0 87 4 5 0 4 7 0 6 Ashland 0.00 26 97 0 73 0 12 0 1 12 0 7 Charleston 0.00 20 65 0 37 4 7 0 5 9 0 8 Colorado Mesa 0.00 11 38 0 35 7 5 0 8 5 0 9 Colorado-CS 0.00 7 26 0 64 7 3 0 8 3 0 10 Concordia-SP 0.00 23 72 0 52 3 7 0 3 7 0 11 CSU Pueblo 0.00 20 67 0 72 4 7 0 4 8 0 12 Davenport 0.00 8 24 0 88 9 4 0 11 4 0 13 Davis&Elkins 0.00 9 49 0 65 5 3 0 5 6 0 14 Findlay 0.00 14 45 0 43 6 6 0 6 6 0 15 Fort Lewis 0.00 16 54 0 41 5 7 0 5 7 0 16 GVSU 0.00 4 14 0 9 10 1 0 11 2 0 17 Lake Erie 0.00 26 99 0 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 Lewis 0.00 18 60 0 105 4 6 0 5 8 0 19 Maryville 0.00 25 93 0 50 1 10 0 1 10 0 20 McKendree 0.00 9 29 0 40 5 3 0 7 3 0 21 MO Western 0.00 18 54 0 75 4 6 0 5 7 0 22 N Michigan 0.00 13 44 0 33 7 6 0 7 6 0 23 Notre Dame OH 0.00 4 17 0 18 10 1 0 12 3 0 24 Oklahoma Bap 0.00 26 99 0 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 25 Quincy 0.00 26 92 0 44 0 7 0 1 9 0 26 Rockhurst 0.00 12 42 0 28 5 4 0 6 5 0 27 Shepherd 0.00 26 58 0 81 0 0 0 4 6 0 28 Tiffin 0.00 16 65 0 11 5 7 0 5 9 0 29 Upper Iowa 0.00 26 99 0 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 30 Ursuline 0.00 24 85 0 100 2 9 0 2 9 0 31 UVA Wise 0.00 26 40 0 24 0 0 0 8 6 0 32 Walsh 0.00 6 36 0 39 8 3 0 9 5 0 33 Westminster UT 0.00 22 67 0 94 3 6 0 3 6 0 34 Wheeling 0.00 26 99 0 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 35 WV Wesleyan 0.00 26 99 0 86 0 8 0 0 10 0