Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division I Championship Tournament

The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large). Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.
 Algorithm

The NCAA will reduce the number of AQ and At-large team invites
by up to 25% for all divisions for 2021

RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L [3] [4] [2] 1 Boston C Atlantic Coast 100.00 0.00 3 3 3 13 3 2 Denver Big East 100.00 100.00 13 9 45 15 1 3 Drexel Colonial 100.00 0.00 4 7 23 13 2 4 Duke Atlantic Coast 100.00 0.00 23 31 17 9 7 5 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 100.00 100.00 14 10 41 13 1 6 Florida American 100.00 100.00 10 4 11 16 2 7 High Point Big South 100.00 100.00 38 60 28 10 7 8 Hofstra Colonial 100.00 0.00 11 43 10 6 6 9 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 100.00 100.00 17 12 80 11 1 10 JHU Big Ten 100.00 0.00 45 56 63 8 6 11 JMU Colonial 100.00 100.00 15 16 21 11 4 12 Loyola Patriot League 100.00 100.00 9 14 33 10 2 13 Maryland Big Ten 100.00 0.00 37 46 37 9 6 14 Mercer Southern 100.00 100.00 44 67 32 7 7 15 Mt St Marys Northeast 100.00 0.00 16 17 31 13 2 16 Northwestern Big Ten 100.00 100.00 6 6 49 13 0 17 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast 100.00 0.00 7 15 5 9 6 18 Robert Morris MAC 100.00 100.00 39 13 96 14 2 19 Rutgers Big Ten 100.00 0.00 53 72 38 6 8 20 Stanford Pacific 12 100.00 100.00 8 8 64 11 0 21 Stony Brook America East 100.00 100.00 5 5 16 14 2 22 Syracuse Atlantic Coast 100.00 0.00 2 2 1 14 3 23 Temple American 100.00 0.00 18 34 12 12 5 24 Towson Colonial 100.00 0.00 22 44 6 9 8 25 Uconn Big East 100.00 0.00 30 36 25 12 6 26 Umass Atlantic 10 100.00 100.00 12 11 27 15 2 27 UNC Atlantic Coast 100.00 100.00 1 1 2 18 0 28 Vanderbilt American 100.00 0.00 21 33 13 12 6 29 Virginia Atlantic Coast 100.00 0.00 29 38 8 8 8 30 Wagner Northeast 0.00 100.00 36 55 34 10 5 31 Akron MAC 0.00 0.00 96 84 100 7 8 32 Albany America East 0.00 0.00 27 30 9 11 7 33 American Patriot League 0.00 0.00 82 82 68 1 7 34 Army Patriot League 0.00 0.00 55 48 91 5 4 35 ASU Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 34 39 19 10 6 36 Binghamton America East 0.00 0.00 87 64 103 3 5 37 Boston U Patriot League 0.00 0.00 69 62 92 4 6 38 Bryant Northeast 0.00 0.00 59 68 58 7 6 39 Bucknell Patriot League 0.00 0.00 76 63 90 3 6 40 Butler Big East 0.00 0.00 97 111 59 1 11 41 California Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 94 119 40 2 16 42 Campbell Big South 0.00 0.00 67 73 84 8 7 43 Canisius Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 63 85 53 2 8 44 Central CT Northeast 0.00 0.00 104 117 69 0 13 45 Central MI MAC 0.00 0.00 61 65 83 8 6 46 Cincinnati American 0.00 0.00 50 91 26 7 10 47 Colgate Patriot League 0.00 0.00 72 59 101 5 5 48 Colorado Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 26 49 15 8 7 49 Cst Carolina Southern 0.00 0.00 42 66 35 10 7 50 Davidson Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 33 37 54 11 4 51 Delaware Colonial 0.00 0.00 102 69 99 1 5 52 Delaware St Southern 0.00 0.00 111 106 111 1 9 53 Detroit Mercy MAC 0.00 0.00 101 98 102 2 8 54 Duquesne Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 62 50 88 4 5 55 E Carolina American 0.00 0.00 57 108 24 4 12 56 Elon Colonial 0.00 0.00 20 18 66 9 2 57 Fresno State MPSF 0.00 0.00 93 114 50 2 12 58 Furman Southern 0.00 0.00 46 41 74 12 4 59 GardWebb Big South 0.00 0.00 99 101 95 4 9 60 Georgetown Big East 0.00 0.00 56 78 22 6 10 61 GMU Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 91 118 42 1 14 62 GWU Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 78 76 87 5 7 63 Hartford America East 0.00 0.00 109 102 106 0 9 64 Holy Cross Patriot League 0.00 0.00 95 51 108 2 4 65 Iona Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 105 110 85 0 11 66 Kennesaw St Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 79 103 56 4 10 67 Kent State MAC 0.00 0.00 98 107 94 5 10 68 La Salle Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 70 83 62 5 9 69 Lafayette Patriot League 0.00 0.00 108 79 105 0 6 70 Lehigh Patriot League 0.00 0.00 25 32 29 9 4 71 Liberty Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 47 70 20 10 9 72 LIU Northeast 0.00 0.00 58 57 67 9 5 73 Longwood Big South 0.00 0.00 106 115 93 3 12 74 Louisville Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 32 52 4 5 11 75 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 85 95 60 3 9 76 Marist Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 40 58 46 3 5 77 Marquette Big East 0.00 0.00 68 80 71 6 8 78 Merrimack Northeast 0.00 0.00 103 113 86 2 11 79 Michigan Big Ten 0.00 0.00 86 100 75 3 9 80 Monmouth NJ Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 54 47 72 8 5 81 Navy Patriot League 0.00 0.00 35 42 61 7 4 82 Niagara Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 24 40 44 8 4 83 ODU American 0.00 0.00 90 116 36 3 14 84 Oregon Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 83 86 77 3 8 85 OSU Big Ten 0.00 0.00 73 92 70 4 9 86 Presbyterian Big South 0.00 0.00 110 109 110 4 10 87 PSU Big Ten 0.00 0.00 71 93 52 4 9 88 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 64 71 57 5 7 89 Radford Big South 0.00 0.00 81 112 65 6 12 90 Richmond Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 43 27 97 10 2 91 Sacred Heart Northeast 0.00 0.00 77 77 82 6 7 92 SDSU MPSF 0.00 0.00 75 99 51 5 9 93 Siena Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 19 28 39 11 3 94 St Bonny Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 89 104 79 2 10 95 St Francis Northeast 0.00 0.00 84 94 76 4 8 96 St Josephs Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 28 45 14 10 7 97 Stetson Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 74 87 55 1 8 98 UC Davis MPSF 0.00 0.00 51 35 78 12 4 99 Umass-L America East 0.00 0.00 88 81 81 4 8 100 UMBC America East 0.00 0.00 48 53 47 6 6 101 UNH America East 0.00 0.00 92 75 98 4 7 102 USC Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 41 54 30 9 7 103 VA Tech Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 49 74 18 4 11 104 VCU Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 65 96 48 7 9 105 Vermont America East 0.00 0.00 60 61 73 6 6 106 Villanova Big East 0.00 0.00 52 90 7 6 11 107 W&M Colonial 0.00 0.00 66 97 43 3 9 108 Winthrop Big South 0.00 0.00 80 88 89 7 8 109 Wofford Southern 0.00 0.00 107 105 109 2 9 110 Youngstown St MAC 0.00 0.00 100 89 104 2 7