Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 Complete List of At-Large predictions below.
 The past four years predictions were 34 out of 36 or 94%.
 
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Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division II Championship Tournament

The Division II Men s Lacrosse Championship consists of an twelve-team, single-elimination tournament. Pairings are determined by regional alignments (North and South), with six teams being selected from each region. Teams must have a .500 or better record versus Division II opponents to be considered. There is no automatic qualification for the tournament. The prediction is based on the rankings of total record, in/region record, overall rpisos overall sos in-region and record against teams with a winning record. See NCAA for more info. Primary Factors for Selecting Teams [1] Division II in region Won-loss record [2] Division II winning percentage [3] Division II strength of schedule [-] Division II head-to-head competition [-] Division II Common opponents Secondary Factors for Selecting Teams [4] Division II results vs teams with a winning record [5] In-region strength of schedule [6] In-region Ratings Percentage Index Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability Algorithm

The NCAA will reduce the number of AQ and At-large team invites
by up to 25% for all divisions for 2021

NORTH RNK TEAMNAME TOURN SEL RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK REG TOTAL PROB W-L W-L RPI W-L SOS SOS W L T W L T TOT REG TOT >.5 TOT REG [2] [1] [6] [4] [3] [5] 1 Le Moyne 100.00 1 1 2 1 31 3 12 0 0 12 0 0 2 Mercy 100.00 5 5 6 4 12 2 9 1 0 9 1 0 3 Mercyhurst 100.00 4 3 4 5 19 14 10 1 0 12 1 0 4 Seton Hill 100.00 7 6 1 12 9 1 8 2 0 11 2 0 5 St Anselm 100.00 6 2 14 5 3 5 12 1 0 12 2 0 6 Adelphi 0.00 19 7 11 28 15 4 7 3 0 7 3 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 AIC 0.00 65 26 63 41 49 19 0 10 0 0 11 0 8 AldersonBroad 0.00 57 24 51 41 46 27 1 6 0 2 8 0 9 Assumption 0.00 55 21 44 41 36 13 2 7 0 2 7 0 10 Bentley 0.00 24 8 37 22 58 24 6 4 0 6 4 0 11 Caldwell 0.00 37 15 58 33 70 28 5 6 0 5 6 0 12 Chestnut Hill 0.00 10 3 12 7 35 21 10 1 0 10 2 0 13 Davenport 0.00 59 26 60 41 54 26 0 0 0 1 8 0 14 Davis&Elkins 0.00 45 23 54 41 67 23 1 5 0 3 5 0 15 Dominican 0.00 29 10 30 19 43 18 5 4 0 5 4 0 16 Felician 0.00 52 18 67 41 38 29 2 4 0 2 6 0 17 Frank Pierce 0.00 41 17 46 41 61 17 5 7 0 5 7 0 18 Georgian Ct 0.00 32 12 45 41 66 22 7 6 0 7 6 0 19 Lake Erie 0.00 43 19 29 31 20 6 3 7 0 5 8 0 20 Molloy 0.00 52 22 41 41 29 8 2 8 0 3 9 0 21 Pace 0.00 36 13 20 28 1 10 6 6 0 6 7 0 22 Post 0.00 65 26 70 41 63 15 0 8 0 0 8 0 23 Roberts Wes 0.00 25 8 22 41 39 16 6 4 0 7 5 0 24 SNHU 0.00 34 13 39 41 55 9 6 6 0 6 6 0 25 St Michaels 0.00 51 20 59 33 65 25 3 8 0 3 8 0 26 St Rose 0.00 59 25 43 41 16 7 1 8 0 1 8 0 27 St Thom Aqui 0.00 65 26 57 41 34 20 0 6 0 0 6 0 28 Walsh 0.00 43 16 26 41 4 11 4 5 0 5 8 0 29 Wilmington DE 0.00 29 10 25 19 37 12 5 4 0 5 4 0 SOUTH RNK TEAMNAME TOURN SEL RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK REG TOTAL PROB W-L W-L RPI W-L SOS SOS W L T W L T TOT REG TOT >.5 TOT REG [2] [1] [6] [4] [3] [5] 1 Indianapolis 100.00 10 5 8 7 13 3 9 2 0 10 2 0 2 Lenoir-Rhyne 100.00 3 2 3 3 14 5 13 1 0 13 1 0 3 Mt Olive 100.00 7 3 10 7 25 2 11 2 0 11 2 0 4 Tampa 100.00 1 1 7 1 28 9 10 0 0 10 0 0 5 Wingate 100.00 7 3 5 7 11 1 11 2 0 11 2 0 6 Adams St 0.00 65 36 61 41 21 29 0 7 0 0 8 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Anderson SC 0.00 50 30 40 39 32 6 4 10 0 4 10 0 8 Barton 0.00 22 15 31 36 5 35 7 5 0 8 5 0 9 Belmont Abbey 0.00 16 10 13 11 24 4 10 4 0 10 4 0 10 Catawba 0.00 37 22 27 25 26 14 5 6 0 5 6 0 11 Chowan 0.00 63 34 65 41 57 13 1 11 0 1 11 0 12 Coker 0.00 39 24 38 39 42 10 6 8 0 6 8 0 13 Colorado Mesa 0.00 12 6 21 14 7 39 8 2 0 9 2 0 14 CSU Pueblo 0.00 45 20 53 41 21 40 3 3 0 3 5 0 15 Emmanuel GA 0.00 48 25 52 41 6 34 4 6 0 4 8 0 16 Florida So 0.00 55 32 48 41 41 26 2 7 0 2 7 0 17 Florida Tech 0.00 45 27 28 33 17 18 3 5 0 3 5 0 18 Frostburg St 0.00 14 36 9 14 18 16 0 0 0 6 2 0 19 Lander 0.00 31 17 50 28 69 37 6 5 0 6 5 0 20 Lees-McRae 0.00 63 34 66 41 59 23 1 11 0 1 11 0 21 Lewis 0.00 41 28 42 38 53 22 3 7 0 5 7 0 22 Limestone 0.00 16 10 16 14 27 8 10 4 0 10 4 0 23 Lincoln Mem 0.00 65 36 56 41 30 28 0 9 0 0 9 0 24 Lindenwood 0.00 13 8 15 13 33 7 9 3 0 10 3 0 25 Lynn 0.00 14 8 19 22 44 25 6 2 0 6 2 0 26 Mars Hill 0.00 54 31 55 41 60 24 3 10 0 3 10 0 27 Maryville 0.00 32 22 33 25 48 20 5 6 0 7 6 0 28 Montevallo 0.00 16 10 34 14 64 19 10 4 0 10 4 0 29 N Greenville 0.00 34 20 36 37 47 11 7 7 0 7 7 0 30 Newberry 0.00 25 15 23 22 40 17 7 5 0 7 5 0 31 PBAU 0.00 59 33 62 41 56 30 1 8 0 1 8 0 32 Queens 0.00 21 14 17 18 23 12 7 4 0 7 4 0 33 Quincy 0.00 65 36 64 41 51 21 0 9 0 0 10 0 34 Rockhurst 0.00 22 17 24 25 45 15 6 5 0 8 5 0 35 Rollins 0.00 19 13 35 41 62 33 7 3 0 7 3 0 36 Shorter 0.00 58 36 68 41 8 32 0 10 0 2 10 0 37 St Leo 0.00 49 28 47 41 50 27 3 7 0 3 7 0 38 Tusculum 0.00 25 17 32 41 52 31 6 5 0 7 5 0 39 UAH 0.00 39 26 49 31 10 36 5 8 0 6 8 0 40 WestminsterUT 0.00 25 7 18 19 2 38 7 2 0 7 5 0 41 Wheeling 0.00 62 36 69 41 68 41 0 1 0 1 10 0