Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last 7 years at-large accuracy: 53 out of 56 or 94%.
 
 

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division I Championship Tournament

The sum of a teams rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Mens Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at-large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probabilility goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins) [5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results against common opponents [-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI) [-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI) [-] Location of the contests Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Note that the SOS on Laxbytes computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = Selection Probability Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.
 Algorithm

The NCAA will reduce the number of AQ and At-large team invites
by up to 25% for all divisions for 2021

RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L [3] [4] [2] 1 Bryant NEC 100.00 100.00 13 28 19 9 3 2 Denver Big East 100.00 0.00 10 9 6 12 4 3 Drexel CAA 100.00 100.00 11 12 23 10 2 4 Duke ACC 100.00 0.00 2 1 2 12 2 5 Georgetown Big East 100.00 100.00 7 7 8 12 2 6 High Point SoCon 100.00 100.00 17 23 10 8 5 7 Lehigh Patriot 100.00 100.00 20 5 59 10 1 8 Loyola Patriot 100.00 0.00 14 14 5 9 5 9 Maryland B1G 100.00 100.00 6 6 37 12 0 10 Monmouth MAAC 100.00 100.00 16 26 51 8 2 11 Notre Dame ACC 100.00 0.00 4 4 9 7 3 12 Rutgers B1G 100.00 0.00 23 24 43 8 3 13 Syracuse ACC 100.00 0.00 5 8 3 7 5 14 UNC ACC 100.00 0.00 1 2 1 11 2 15 Vermont America East 100.00 100.00 15 33 11 9 4 16 Virginia ACC 100.00 0.00 3 3 4 10 4 17 Air Force SoCon 0.00 0.00 41 57 15 4 9 18 Albany America East 0.00 0.00 27 35 18 8 5 19 Army Patriot 0.00 0.00 9 11 12 7 4 20 Bellarmine SoCon 0.00 0.00 59 67 50 5 10 21 Binghamton America East 0.00 0.00 37 40 60 5 4 22 Boston U Patriot 0.00 0.00 55 37 64 6 5 23 Bucknell Patriot 0.00 0.00 50 52 48 2 6 24 Canisius MAAC 0.00 0.00 39 45 55 5 5 25 Cleveland St Independent 0.00 0.00 66 61 67 3 7 26 Colgate Patriot 0.00 0.00 47 58 39 3 7 27 Delaware CAA 0.00 0.00 18 22 29 10 3 28 Detroit Mercy MAAC 0.00 0.00 38 41 46 3 4 29 Fairfield CAA 0.00 0.00 61 68 58 2 9 30 Hartford America East 0.00 0.00 53 51 57 2 5 31 Hobart NEC 0.00 0.00 30 31 53 6 3 32 Hofstra CAA 0.00 0.00 36 43 30 8 6 33 Holy Cross Patriot 0.00 0.00 63 38 65 2 4 34 Jacksonville SoCon 0.00 0.00 35 46 28 7 7 35 JHU B1G 0.00 0.00 40 62 13 4 9 36 Lafayette Patriot 0.00 0.00 64 71 40 0 11 37 LIU NEC 0.00 0.00 52 47 63 6 5 38 Manhattan MAAC 0.00 0.00 25 42 26 5 5 39 Marquette Big East 0.00 0.00 43 53 31 4 8 40 Mercer SoCon 0.00 0.00 54 59 61 5 8 41 Merrimack NEC 0.00 0.00 42 44 62 5 5 42 Michigan B1G 0.00 0.00 48 63 27 3 9 43 Mt St Marys NEC 0.00 0.00 49 65 22 4 9 44 Navy Patriot 0.00 0.00 19 10 35 6 3 45 NJIT America East 0.00 0.00 56 72 33 1 10 46 OSU B1G 0.00 0.00 46 55 45 4 7 47 Providence Big East 0.00 0.00 44 60 17 4 9 48 PSU B1G 0.00 0.00 45 56 38 4 7 49 Quinnipiac MAAC 0.00 0.00 28 36 36 4 3 50 Richmond SoCon 0.00 0.00 31 34 20 7 6 51 Rob Morris Independent 0.00 0.00 29 29 24 7 6 52 Sacred Heart NEC 0.00 0.00 65 74 44 1 12 53 Siena MAAC 0.00 0.00 62 66 47 0 8 54 St Bonny MAAC 0.00 0.00 34 49 41 5 5 55 St Johns Big East 0.00 0.00 57 69 34 1 10 56 St Josephs NEC 0.00 0.00 21 27 16 9 4 57 Stony Brook America East 0.00 0.00 33 39 21 8 6 58 Towson CAA 0.00 0.00 24 48 7 6 8 59 UMass CAA 0.00 0.00 32 50 25 4 6 60 UMassLowell America East 0.00 0.00 58 64 49 1 8 61 UMBC America East 0.00 0.00 26 32 42 8 3 62 Utah Independent 0.00 0.00 51 54 56 4 7 63 Villanova Big East 0.00 0.00 22 30 14 7 5 64 VMI SoCon 0.00 0.00 67 73 66 1 10 65 Wagner NEC 0.00 0.00 60 70 54 1 9