PROBABILITIES

The NCAA Selection Committee has criteria for selecting teams as at-large invitees. We have computerized these criteria and provide a normalized list under the at-large column from 1.0 (greatest chance) to 0.0 (lowest chance). However, we do not know how the committee weighs each criteria nor what other factors the committee takes into account. Therefore we provide a list in order of teams the algorithm computes to have the best chances. At-large Rating is an indication (proportional to probability) of a teams chances for an at-large selection. Algorithm
Rank Team Name Conference AQ % At-Large At-Large W - L Rating Ranking 4 Albion MIAA 100.00 0.61 1 0 0 33 Brockport SUNYAC 100.00 0.00 2 0 0 41 Canton Independent 100.00 0.00 3 0 0 46 Catholic (DC) Landmark 100.00 0.25 4 0 0 61 College of New Jer NJAC 100.00 0.00 5 0 0 72 Denison North Coast 100.00 0.00 6 0 0 88 Endicott Comm. Coast 100.00 0.20 7 0 0 99 George Fox Northwest 100.00 0.70 8 0 0 100 Gettysburg Centennial 100.00 0.87 9 0 0 107 Hamline Midwest 100.00 0.52 10 0 0 122 Illinois Wesleyan CCIW 100.00 0.39 11 0 0 126 Johnson & Wales Great Northe 100.00 0.16 12 0 0 138 Lebanon Valley Commonwealth 100.00 0.50 13 0 0 157 Merchant Marine Skyline 100.00 0.00 14 0 0 158 Meredith USA South At 100.00 0.81 15 0 0 161 Middlebury NESCAC 100.00 0.56 16 0 0 162 Misericordia Freedom 100.00 0.00 17 0 0 168 Morrisville NEAC 100.00 0.00 18 0 0 174 Mount Union Ohio 100.00 0.34 19 0 0 179 New England Colleg North Atlant 100.00 0.00 20 0 0 186 Notre Dame (MD) CSAC 100.00 0.00 21 0 0 202 Plymouth State Little East 100.00 0.30 22 0 0 214 Rhodes SAA 100.00 0.28 23 0 0 240 Springfield NEWMAC 100.00 0.00 24 0 0 241 St. John Fisher Empire Eight 100.00 0.62 25 0 0 256 Transylvania Heartland 100.00 0.63 26 0 0 269 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 100.00 0.74 27 0 0 279 Westfield State MASCAC 100.00 0.46 28 0 0 280 Westminster (PA) President's 100.00 0.00 29 0 0 289 William Smith Liberty Leag 100.00 0.64 30 0 0 298 York Capital 100.00 0.30 31 0 0 POOL 1 2 Adrian MIAA 0.00 0.61 1 0 0 3 Albertus Magnus Great Northe 0.00 0.47 2 0 0 5 Albright Commonwealth 0.00 0.00 3 0 0 6 Alfred Empire Eight 0.00 0.66 4 0 0 7 Allegheny North Coast 0.00 0.00 5 0 0 8 Alma MIAA 0.00 0.58 6 0 0 9 Alvernia Commonwealth 0.00 0.68 7 0 0 10 Amherst NESCAC 0.00 0.00 8 0 0 11 Anderson Heartland 0.00 0.38 9 0 0 12 Anna Maria Great Northe 0.00 0.67 10 0 0 13 Arcadia Commonwealth 0.00 0.68 11 0 0 15 Augustana CCIW 0.00 0.68 12 0 0 16 Aurora NACC 0.00 0.55 13 0 0 17 Averett USA South At 0.00 0.79 14 0 0 18 Babson NEWMAC 0.00 0.00 15 0 0 19 Baldwin Wallace Ohio 0.00 0.76 16 0 0 20 Bard Liberty Leag 0.00 0.00 17 0 0 21 Bates NESCAC 0.00 0.00 18 0 0 22 Bay Path NECC 0.00 0.00 19 0 0 23 Becker NECC 0.00 0.78 20 0 0 24 Beloit Midwest 0.00 0.84 21 0 0 25 Benedictine NACC 0.00 0.70 22 0 0 26 Berry SAA 0.00 0.66 23 0 0 27 Bethany President's 0.00 0.28 24 0 0 28 Birmingham-Souther SAA 0.00 0.53 25 0 0 29 Bowdoin NESCAC 0.00 0.00 26 0 0 30 Brevard USA South At 0.00 0.50 27 0 0 31 Bridgewater Old Dominion 0.00 0.74 28 0 0 32 Bridgewater State MASCAC 0.00 0.00 29 0 0 34 Bryn Athyn NEAC 0.00 0.17 30 0 0 35 Bryn Mawr Centennial 0.00 0.87 31 0 0 36 Buffalo State SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 32 0 0 37 Cabrini CSAC 0.00 0.00 33 0 0 38 Cairn CSAC 0.00 0.00 34 0 0 40 Calvin MIAA 0.00 0.58 35 0 0 42 Capital Ohio 0.00 0.79 36 0 0 43 Carroll CCIW 0.00 0.65 37 0 0 44 Carthage CCIW 0.00 0.64 38 0 0 45 Castleton North Atlant 0.00 0.30 39 0 0 47 Cazenovia NEAC 0.00 0.00 40 0 0 48 Cedar Crest CSAC 0.00 0.67 41 0 0 49 Centenary CSAC 0.00 0.00 42 0 0 50 Centre SAA 0.00 0.33 43 0 0 52 Chatham President's 0.00 0.00 44 0 0 53 Chicago CCIW 0.00 0.23 45 0 0 54 Christopher Newpor Capital 0.00 0.26 46 0 0 56 Clark NEWMAC 0.00 0.00 47 0 0 57 Clarkson Liberty Leag 0.00 0.00 48 0 0 58 Coast Guard NEWMAC 0.00 0.00 49 0 0 59 Colby NESCAC 0.00 0.00 50 0 0 60 Colby-Sawyer North Atlant 0.00 0.16 51 0 0 63 Concordia-Chicago NACC 0.00 0.00 52 0 0 64 Concordia-Wisconsi NACC 0.00 0.00 53 0 0 65 Connecticut Colleg NESCAC 0.00 0.00 54 0 0 66 Cornell (IA) Midwest 0.00 0.00 55 0 0 67 Cortland SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 56 0 0 68 Curry Comm. Coast 0.00 0.71 57 0 0 70 Dean NECC 0.00 0.30 58 0 0 71 Delaware Valley Freedom 0.00 0.00 59 0 0 73 DePauw North Coast 0.00 0.00 60 0 0 74 DeSales Freedom 0.00 0.21 61 0 0 75 Dickinson Centennial 0.00 0.87 62 0 0 76 Drew Landmark 0.00 0.68 63 0 0 77 Earlham Heartland 0.00 0.56 64 0 0 78 Eastern Freedom 0.00 0.00 65 0 0 79 Eastern Connecticu Little East 0.00 0.30 66 0 0 80 Eastern Mennonite Old Dominion 0.00 0.26 67 0 0 81 Edgewood NACC 0.00 0.00 68 0 0 82 Elizabethtown Landmark 0.00 0.78 69 0 0 83 Elmhurst CCIW 0.00 0.55 70 0 0 84 Elmira Empire Eight 0.00 0.60 71 0 0 85 Elms NECC 0.00 0.79 72 0 0 86 Emerson NEWMAC 0.00 0.00 73 0 0 87 Emmanuel Great Northe 0.00 0.67 74 0 0 89 Farmingdale State Skyline 0.00 0.45 75 0 0 90 FDU-Florham Freedom 0.00 0.00 76 0 0 91 Ferrum Old Dominion 0.00 0.44 77 0 0 92 Fitchburg State MASCAC 0.00 0.79 78 0 0 93 Framingham State MASCAC 0.00 0.00 79 0 0 95 Franklin Heartland 0.00 0.78 80 0 0 96 Franklin & Marshal Centennial 0.00 0.59 81 0 0 97 Fredonia SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 82 0 0 98 Geneseo SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 83 0 0 101 Gordon Comm. Coast 0.00 0.20 84 0 0 102 Goucher Landmark 0.00 0.68 85 0 0 103 Greensboro USA South At 0.00 0.52 86 0 0 104 Guilford Old Dominion 0.00 0.69 87 0 0 105 Gwynedd-Mercy CSAC 0.00 0.00 88 0 0 106 Hamilton NESCAC 0.00 0.00 89 0 0 108 Hanover Heartland 0.00 0.33 90 0 0 109 Hartwick Empire Eight 0.00 0.60 91 0 0 110 Haverford Centennial 0.00 0.71 92 0 0 111 Heidelberg Ohio 0.00 0.60 93 0 0 112 Hendrix SAA 0.00 0.67 94 0 0 113 Hilbert Allegheny Mt 0.00 0.00 95 0 0 114 Hiram North Coast 0.00 0.79 96 0 0 116 Hood Commonwealth 0.00 0.54 97 0 0 117 Hope MIAA 0.00 0.63 98 0 0 118 Houghton Empire Eight 0.00 0.82 99 0 0 119 Huntingdon USA South At 0.00 0.55 100 0 0 120 Husson North Atlant 0.00 0.54 101 0 0 121 Illinois Tech NACC 0.00 0.85 102 0 0 123 Immaculata CSAC 0.00 0.68 103 0 0 124 Ithaca Liberty Leag 0.00 0.00 104 0 0 125 John Carroll Ohio 0.00 0.62 105 0 0 127 Juniata Landmark 0.00 0.41 106 0 0 128 Kalamazoo MIAA 0.00 0.59 107 0 0 129 Kean NJAC 0.00 0.94 108 0 0 130 Keene State Little East 0.00 0.79 109 0 0 131 Kenyon North Coast 0.00 0.00 110 0 0 132 Keuka NEAC 0.00 0.61 111 0 0 133 Keystone CSAC 0.00 0.34 112 0 0 134 King's Freedom 0.00 0.67 113 0 0 135 La Roche Allegheny Mt 0.00 0.00 114 0 0 136 Lancaster Bible NEAC 0.00 0.45 115 0 0 137 Lasell Great Northe 0.00 0.67 116 0 0 139 Linfield Northwest 0.00 0.59 117 0 0 140 Loras Midwest 0.00 0.74 118 0 0 141 Lycoming Commonwealth 0.00 0.68 119 0 0 142 Lynchburg Old Dominion 0.00 0.55 120 0 0 143 Maine Maritime North Atlant 0.00 0.71 121 0 0 144 Maine-Farmington North Atlant 0.00 0.00 122 0 0 145 Manhattanville Freedom 0.00 0.00 123 0 0 146 Marian (WI) NACC 0.00 0.00 124 0 0 147 Marietta Ohio 0.00 0.53 125 0 0 148 Maritime Skyline 0.00 0.00 126 0 0 149 Mary Washington Capital 0.00 0.54 127 0 0 150 Marymount Capital 0.00 0.00 128 0 0 151 Marywood CSAC 0.00 0.00 129 0 0 152 Mass. Maritime MASCAC 0.00 0.99 130 0 0 153 Mass.-Dartmouth Little East 0.00 0.46 131 0 0 154 McDaniel Centennial 0.00 0.58 132 0 0 155 MCLA MASCAC 0.00 0.00 133 0 0 156 Medaille Allegheny Mt 0.00 0.00 134 0 0 159 Messiah Commonwealth 0.00 0.30 135 0 0 160 Methodist USA South At 0.00 0.58 136 0 0 163 MIT NEWMAC 0.00 0.00 137 0 0 164 Mitchell NECC 0.00 0.00 138 0 0 165 Monmouth (IL) Midwest 0.00 0.00 139 0 0 166 Montclair State NJAC 0.00 0.00 140 0 0 167 Moravian Landmark 0.00 0.50 141 0 0 169 Mount Aloysius Allegheny Mt 0.00 0.45 142 0 0 170 Mount Holyoke NEWMAC 0.00 0.20 143 0 0 171 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 0.00 0.00 144 0 0 172 Mount Saint Vincen Skyline 0.00 0.00 145 0 0 173 Mount St. Joseph Heartland 0.00 0.38 146 0 0 175 Muhlenberg Centennial 0.00 0.87 147 0 0 176 Muskingum Ohio 0.00 0.48 148 0 0 177 Nazareth Empire Eight 0.00 0.47 149 0 0 178 Neumann CSAC 0.00 0.00 150 0 0 180 New Paltz SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 151 0 0 181 Nichols Comm. Coast 0.00 0.71 152 0 0 182 No. Carolina Wesle USA South At 0.00 0.00 153 0 0 183 North Central CCIW 0.00 0.81 154 0 0 184 Northern Vermont-L North Atlant 0.00 0.54 155 0 0 185 Norwich Great Northe 0.00 0.50 156 0 0 187 Oberlin North Coast 0.00 0.00 157 0 0 189 Oglethorpe SAA 0.00 0.61 158 0 0 190 Ohio Northern Ohio 0.00 0.69 159 0 0 191 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 0.00 0.37 160 0 0 192 Old Westbury Skyline 0.00 0.00 161 0 0 193 Olivet MIAA 0.00 0.00 162 0 0 194 Oneonta SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 163 0 0 195 Oswego SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 164 0 0 196 Otterbein Ohio 0.00 0.34 165 0 0 197 Pacific (OR) Northwest 0.00 0.00 166 0 0 198 Penn State-Abingto NEAC 0.00 0.00 167 0 0 199 Pfeiffer USA South At 0.00 0.49 168 0 0 200 Piedmont USA South At 0.00 0.47 169 0 0 201 Plattsburgh State SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 170 0 0 204 Potsdam SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 171 0 0 205 Puget Sound Northwest 0.00 0.66 172 0 0 206 Purchase Skyline 0.00 0.00 173 0 0 207 Ramapo NJAC 0.00 0.81 174 0 0 208 Randolph Old Dominion 0.00 0.71 175 0 0 209 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 0.00 0.61 176 0 0 211 Regis (MA) NECC 0.00 0.00 177 0 0 212 Rensselaer Liberty Leag 0.00 0.00 178 0 0 213 Rhode Island Colle Little East 0.00 0.00 179 0 0 215 RIT Liberty Leag 0.00 0.00 180 0 0 216 Rivier Great Northe 0.00 0.67 181 0 0 217 Roanoke Old Dominion 0.00 0.85 182 0 0 218 Rochester Liberty Leag 0.00 1.00 183 0 0 219 Roger Williams Comm. Coast 0.00 0.71 184 0 0 220 Rosemont CSAC 0.00 0.17 185 0 0 221 Rowan NJAC 0.00 0.31 186 0 0 222 Rutgers-Camden NJAC 0.00 0.62 187 0 0 223 Sage Empire Eight 0.00 0.00 188 0 0 224 Saint Joseph Great Northe 0.00 0.00 189 0 0 225 Saint Joseph's (ME Great Northe 0.00 0.00 190 0 0 226 Saint Vincent President's 0.00 0.00 191 0 0 227 Salem 0.00 0.80 192 0 0 228 Salem State MASCAC 0.00 0.30 193 0 0 229 Salisbury Capital 0.00 0.48 194 0 0 230 Salve Regina Comm. Coast 0.00 0.32 195 0 0 231 Scranton Landmark 0.00 0.21 196 0 0 232 Sewanee SAA 0.00 0.86 197 0 0 233 Shenandoah Old Dominion 0.00 0.45 198 0 0 234 Simmons Great Northe 0.00 0.73 199 0 0 235 Skidmore Liberty Leag 0.00 0.00 200 0 0 236 Smith NEWMAC 0.00 0.00 201 0 0 237 Southern Maine Little East 0.00 0.79 202 0 0 238 Southern Virginia Capital 0.00 0.72 203 0 0 242 St. Joseph's (NY) Skyline 0.00 0.00 204 0 0 243 St. Lawrence Liberty Leag 0.00 0.00 205 0 0 244 St. Mary's (IN) 0.00 0.61 206 0 0 245 St. Mary's (MD) Capital 0.00 0.00 207 0 0 246 Stevens Empire Eight 0.00 0.00 208 0 0 247 Stevenson Commonwealth 0.00 0.79 209 0 0 248 Stockton NJAC 0.00 0.44 210 0 0 249 SUNY Poly NEAC 0.00 0.00 211 0 0 250 Susquehanna Landmark 0.00 0.38 212 0 0 251 Swarthmore Centennial 0.00 0.39 213 0 0 252 Sweet Briar Old Dominion 0.00 0.75 214 0 0 253 Thiel President's 0.00 0.00 215 0 0 254 Thomas North Atlant 0.00 0.00 216 0 0 255 Thomas More Heartland 0.00 0.00 217 0 0 257 Trine MIAA 0.00 0.59 218 0 0 258 Trinity (CT) NESCAC 0.00 0.00 219 0 0 259 Tufts NESCAC 0.00 0.00 220 0 0 260 U. of New England Comm. Coast 0.00 0.00 221 0 0 261 Union Liberty Leag 0.00 0.00 222 0 0 262 Ursinus Centennial 0.00 0.56 223 0 0 263 Utica Empire Eight 0.00 0.62 224 0 0 264 Vassar Liberty Leag 0.00 0.00 225 0 0 265 Virginia Wesleyan Old Dominion 0.00 0.26 226 0 0 266 Warren Wilson 0.00 0.00 227 0 0 267 Wartburg Midwest 0.00 0.62 228 0 0 268 Washington & Jeffe President's 0.00 0.00 229 0 0 270 Washington College Centennial 0.00 0.00 230 0 0 271 Waynesburg President's 0.00 0.00 231 0 0 272 Wellesley NEWMAC 0.00 0.00 232 0 0 273 Wells NEAC 0.00 0.00 233 0 0 274 Wentworth Tech Comm. Coast 0.00 0.71 234 0 0 275 Wesley Capital 0.00 0.17 235 0 0 276 Wesleyan (CT) NESCAC 0.00 0.00 236 0 0 277 Western Connecticu Little East 0.00 0.30 237 0 0 278 Western New Englan Comm. Coast 0.00 0.20 238 0 0 281 Wheaton NEWMAC 0.00 0.00 239 0 0 282 Whitman Northwest 0.00 0.52 240 0 0 284 Whitworth Northwest 0.00 0.70 241 0 0 285 Widener Commonwealth 0.00 0.74 242 0 0 286 Wilkes Freedom 0.00 0.17 243 0 0 287 Willamette Northwest 0.00 0.59 244 0 0 288 William Peace USA South At 0.00 0.28 245 0 0 290 Williams NESCAC 0.00 0.00 246 0 0 291 Wilson NEAC 0.00 0.45 247 0 0 292 Wisconsin-Eau Clai 0.00 0.00 248 0 0 293 Wisconsin-La Cross 0.00 0.44 249 0 0 295 Wittenberg North Coast 0.00 0.62 250 0 0 296 Wooster North Coast 0.00 0.00 251 0 0 297 Worcester State MASCAC 0.00 0.79 252 0 0 POOL2 1 Northwestern (MN) Independent 0.00 0.96 1 0 0 14 Augsburg 0.00 0.71 2 0 0 39 California Luthera SCIAC 0.00 0.00 3 0 0 51 Chapman SCIAC 0.00 0.00 4 0 0 55 Claremont-Mudd-Scr SCIAC 0.00 0.00 5 0 0 62 Colorado College Independent 0.00 0.54 6 0 0 69 Dallas Independent 0.00 0.67 7 0 0 94 Franciscan Independent 0.00 0.00 8 0 0 115 Hollins Independent 0.00 0.42 9 0 0 188 Occidental SCIAC 0.00 0.00 10 0 0 203 Pomona-Pitzer SCIAC 0.00 0.00 11 0 0 210 Redlands SCIAC 0.00 0.00 12 0 0 239 Southwestern Independent 0.00 0.44 13 0 0 283 Whittier SCIAC 0.00 0.00 14 0 0 294 Wisconsin-RiverFal Independent 0.00 0.00 15 0 0