PROBABILITIES

The NCAA Selection Committee has criteria for selecting teams as at-large invitees. We have computerized these criteria and provide a normalized list under the at-large column from 1.0 (greatest chance) to 0.0 (lowest chance). However, we do not know how the committee weighs each criteria nor what other factors the committee takes into account. Therefore we provide a list in order of teams the algorithm computes to have the best chances. At-large Rating is an indication (proportional to probability) of a teams chances for an at-large selection. Algorithm
Rank Team Name Conference AQ % At-Large At-Large W - L Rating Ranking EAST 3 Adelphi Northeast 10 0.00 0.16 1 0 0 6 American Internati Northeast 10 0.00 0.16 2 0 0 8 Assumption Northeast 10 0.00 0.16 3 0 0 10 Bentley Northeast 10 0.00 0.16 4 0 0 12 Bridgeport East Coast 0.00 0.74 5 0 0 27 D'Youville Allegheny Mt 0.00 0.51 6 0 0 38 Franklin Pierce Northeast 10 0.00 0.16 7 0 0 49 Le Moyne Northeast 10 0.00 0.16 8 0 0 62 Mercy East Coast 0.00 0.70 9 0 0 66 Molloy East Coast 0.00 0.54 10 0 0 69 New Haven Northeast 10 0.00 0.16 11 0 0 76 Pace Northeast 10 0.00 0.16 12 0 0 82 Roberts Wesleyan East Coast 0.00 0.37 13 0 0 85 S. New Hampshire Northeast 10 0.00 0.16 14 0 0 86 Saint Anselm Northeast 10 0.00 0.16 15 0 0 88 Saint Michael's Northeast 10 0.00 0.16 16 0 0 89 Saint Rose Northeast 10 0.00 0.16 17 0 0 95 Southern Connectic Northeast 10 0.00 0.16 18 0 0 97 St. Thomas Aquinas East Coast 0.00 0.16 19 0 0 98 Stonehill Northeast 10 0.00 0.16 20 0 0 103 University of DC East Coast 0.00 0.16 21 0 0 ATLANTIC 11 Bloomsburg PSAC 0.00 0.73 1 0 0 13 Caldwell CACC North 0.00 0.30 2 0 0 16 Chestnut Hill CACC South 0.00 0.85 3 0 0 26 Dominican CACC North 0.00 0.42 4 0 0 28 East Stroudsburg PSAC 0.00 0.75 5 0 0 29 Edinboro PSAC 0.00 0.42 6 0 0 33 Felician CACC North 0.00 0.92 7 0 0 40 Gannon PSAC 0.00 0.67 8 0 0 41 Georgian Court CACC North 0.00 0.53 9 0 0 43 Holy Family CACC South 0.00 0.14 10 0 0 44 Indiana (PA) PSAC 0.00 0.08 11 0 0 46 Kutztown PSAC 0.00 0.71 12 0 0 57 Lock Haven PSAC 0.00 0.57 13 0 0 63 Mercyhurst PSAC 0.00 0.56 14 0 0 64 Millersville PSAC 0.00 0.46 15 0 0 74 Nyack CACC North 0.00 0.71 16 0 0 78 Post CACC North 0.00 0.08 17 0 0 90 Seton Hill PSAC 0.00 0.70 18 0 0 92 Shippensburg PSAC 0.00 0.68 19 0 0 94 Slippery Rock PSAC 0.00 0.50 20 0 0 100 Thomas Jefferson CACC South 0.00 0.08 21 0 0 108 West Chester PSAC 0.00 0.73 22 0 0 112 Wilmington CACC South 0.00 0.08 23 0 0 SOUTH 1 Barton Carolinas 0.00 0.85 1 0 0 4 Alabama-Huntsville Gulf South 0.00 0.66 2 0 0 9 Belmont Abbey Carolinas 0.00 0.96 3 0 0 14 Catawba South Atlant 0.00 0.39 4 0 0 17 Chowan Carolinas 0.00 0.29 5 0 0 18 Coker South Atlant 0.00 0.44 6 0 0 22 Converse Carolinas 0.00 0.51 7 0 0 30 Embry-Riddle 0.00 0.04 8 0 0 31 Emmanuel (GA) Carolinas 0.00 0.04 9 0 0 32 Erskine Carolinas 0.00 0.79 10 0 0 35 Florida Southern Sunshine 0.00 0.04 11 0 0 36 Florida Tech Sunshine 0.00 0.04 12 0 0 48 Lander Gulf South 0.00 0.77 13 0 0 50 Lee Gulf South 0.00 0.76 14 0 0 51 Lees-McRae Carolinas 0.00 0.80 15 0 0 52 Lenoir-Rhyne South Atlant 0.00 0.71 16 0 0 54 Limestone Carolinas 0.00 0.58 17 0 0 55 Lincoln Memorial South Atlant 0.00 0.86 18 0 0 58 Lynn Sunshine 0.00 0.04 19 0 0 59 Mars Hill South Atlant 0.00 0.27 20 0 0 67 Montevallo Gulf South 0.00 0.69 21 0 0 68 Mount Olive Carolinas 0.00 0.14 22 0 0 70 Newberry South Atlant 0.00 0.69 23 0 0 71 North Greenville Carolinas 0.00 0.23 24 0 0 79 Queens South Atlant 0.00 0.63 25 0 0 84 Rollins Sunshine 0.00 0.04 26 0 0 87 Saint Leo Sunshine 0.00 0.04 27 0 0 93 Shorter Gulf South 0.00 0.23 28 0 0 96 Southern Wesleyan Carolinas 0.00 0.20 29 0 0 99 Tampa Sunshine 0.00 0.22 30 0 0 102 Tusculum South Atlant 0.00 0.54 31 0 0 113 Wingate South Atlant 0.00 0.80 32 0 0 114 Young Harris Gulf South 0.00 0.58 33 0 0 MIDWEST 2 Adams State Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.87 1 0 0 5 Alderson Broaddus Great Midwes 0.00 0.73 2 0 0 7 Ashland Great Lakes 0.00 0.49 3 0 0 15 Charleston Mountain Eas 0.00 0.82 4 0 0 19 Colo.-Colorado Spr Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.00 5 0 0 20 Colorado Mesa Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.41 6 0 0 21 Concordia-St. Paul Great Lakes 0.00 0.46 7 0 0 23 CSU-Pueblo Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.87 8 0 0 24 Davenport GLIAC 0.00 1.00 9 0 0 25 Davis & Elkins Great Midwes 0.00 0.47 10 0 0 34 Findlay Great Lakes 0.00 0.10 11 0 0 37 Fort Lewis Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.85 12 0 0 42 Grand Valley State Great Lakes 0.00 0.55 13 0 0 45 Indianapolis Great Lakes 0.00 0.38 14 0 0 47 Lake Erie Great Midwes 0.00 0.14 15 0 0 53 Lewis Great Lakes 0.00 0.40 16 0 0 56 Lindenwood Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.36 17 0 0 60 Maryville (MO) Great Lakes 0.00 0.62 18 0 0 61 McKendree Great Lakes 0.00 0.63 19 0 0 72 Northern Michigan Great Lakes 0.00 0.78 20 0 0 73 Notre Dame (OH) Mountain Eas 0.00 0.63 21 0 0 75 Oklahoma Baptist Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.52 22 0 0 80 Quincy 0.00 0.49 23 0 0 81 Regis (CO) Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.50 24 0 0 83 Rockhurst Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.49 25 0 0 91 Shepherd Mountain Eas 0.00 0.56 26 0 0 101 Tiffin Great Lakes 0.00 0.20 27 0 0 104 Upper Iowa Great Lakes 0.00 1.00 28 0 0 105 Ursuline Great Midwes 0.00 0.07 29 0 0 106 UVa-Wise Mountain Eas 0.00 0.00 30 0 0 107 Walsh Great Lakes 0.00 0.47 31 0 0 109 West Virginia Wesl Mountain Eas 0.00 0.63 32 0 0 110 Westminster Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.76 33 0 0 111 Wheeling Mountain Eas 0.00 0.00 34 0 0