Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 Complete List of At-Large predictions below.
 The past years predictions were 45 out of 55 or 86%.
 
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Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division II Championship Tournament

The format for the NCAA Division II Women s Lacrosse Championship is a sixteen-team, single-elimination tournament. Teams must play a minimum of 10 games in-region and have at least a .500 record, and regular-season games tied after regulation must be decided in overtime. Each region (North and South) will have six teams, and teams will be paired within region. The prediction is based on the rankings of region record, division record, record against teams with a 50% winning record and sos in-region. See NCAA for more info. Primary Factors for Selecting Teams [1] In-region Division II won-lost results [2] Overall division II won-lost results [3] Strength of schedule in-region [-] Division II Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Results vs. teams with records above .500 [-] Performance indicator (not defined by NCAA) Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. ? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?

Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability Algorithm
EAST Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] ATLANTIC Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Bloomsburg 100.00 5 23 0 30 7 7 0 0 0 0 2 Chestnut Hill 100.00 1 1 0 37 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 East Stroudsburg 100.00 5 23 0 26 2 2 0 0 0 0 4 Felician 100.00 1 1 0 24 1 0 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Caldwell 0.00 17 75 0 40 0 1 0 0 0 0 6 Dominican 0.00 17 75 0 16 0 1 0 0 0 0 7 Edinboro 0.00 5 57 0 52 5 5 0 0 0 0 8 Gannon 0.00 5 23 0 43 2 2 0 0 0 0 9 Georgian Court 0.00 4 15 0 81 5 3 0 0 0 0 10 Holy Family 0.00 17 75 0 72 0 1 0 0 0 0 11 Indiana (PA) 0.00 17 75 0 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 Kutztown 0.00 5 23 0 34 8 8 0 0 0 0 13 Lock Haven 0.00 5 23 0 62 2 2 0 0 0 0 14 Mercyhurst 0.00 5 23 0 65 2 2 0 0 0 0 15 Millersville 0.00 16 57 0 30 8 10 0 0 0 0 16 Nyack 0.00 1 1 0 66 1 0 0 0 0 0 17 Post 0.00 17 75 0 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 Seton Hill 0.00 5 23 0 36 1 1 0 0 0 0 19 Shippensburg 0.00 5 23 0 41 4 4 0 0 0 0 20 Slippery Rock 0.00 5 23 0 77 6 6 0 0 0 0 21 Thomas Jefferson 0.00 17 75 0 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 West Chester 0.00 5 23 0 30 7 7 0 0 0 0 23 Wilmington 0.00 17 75 0 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 SOUTH Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Barton 100.00 7 23 0 5 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 Belmont Abbey 100.00 1 5 0 11 4 1 0 0 0 0 3 Lincoln Memorial 100.00 5 15 0 15 7 5 0 0 0 0 4 Wingate 100.00 16 23 0 3 7 8 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Alabama-Huntsville 0.00 18 6 0 49 2 3 0 0 0 0 6 Catawba 0.00 22 73 0 18 1 3 0 0 0 0 7 Chowan 0.00 7 57 0 75 5 5 0 0 0 0 8 Coker 0.00 18 23 0 73 2 3 0 0 0 0 9 Converse 0.00 17 65 0 9 5 7 0 0 0 0 10 Embry-Riddle 0.00 24 75 0 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 Emmanuel (GA) 0.00 24 75 0 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 Erskine 0.00 7 21 0 19 4 4 0 0 0 0 13 Florida Southern 0.00 24 75 0 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 14 Florida Tech 0.00 24 75 0 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 Lander 0.00 7 23 0 21 2 2 0 0 0 0 16 Lee 0.00 6 23 0 23 5 4 0 0 0 0 17 Lees-McRae 0.00 3 8 0 38 2 1 0 0 0 0 18 Lenoir-Rhyne 0.00 7 18 0 39 3 3 0 0 0 0 19 Limestone 0.00 7 60 0 13 8 8 0 0 0 0 20 Lynn 0.00 24 75 0 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 Mars Hill 0.00 18 68 0 53 2 3 0 0 0 0 22 Montevallo 0.00 7 15 0 45 5 5 0 0 0 0 23 Mount Olive 0.00 22 73 0 69 1 3 0 0 0 0 24 Newberry 0.00 2 11 0 56 9 4 0 0 0 0 25 North Greenville 0.00 21 68 0 58 1 2 0 0 0 0 26 Queens 0.00 3 8 0 71 2 1 0 0 0 0 27 Rollins 0.00 24 75 0 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 Saint Leo 0.00 24 75 0 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 29 Shorter 0.00 24 75 0 46 0 1 0 0 0 0 30 Southern Wesleyan 0.00 24 75 0 51 0 1 0 0 0 0 31 Tampa 0.00 24 75 0 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 32 Tusculum 0.00 7 62 0 20 3 3 0 0 0 0 33 Young Harris 0.00 7 20 0 61 6 6 0 0 0 0 MIDWEST Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Adams State 100.00 4 21 0 6 5 4 0 0 0 0 2 CSU-Pueblo 100.00 8 13 0 12 3 3 0 0 0 0 3 Davenport 100.00 2 6 0 1 11 4 0 0 0 0 4 Upper Iowa 100.00 1 1 0 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Alderson Broaddus 0.00 8 23 0 27 3 3 0 0 0 0 6 Ashland 0.00 26 66 0 2 5 9 0 0 0 0 7 Charleston 0.00 3 13 0 28 3 2 0 0 0 0 8 Colo.-Colorado Sprin 0.00 31 75 0 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 Colorado Mesa 0.00 7 54 0 55 8 7 0 0 0 0 10 Concordia-St. Paul 0.00 27 68 0 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 11 Davis & Elkins 0.00 8 23 0 79 4 4 0 0 0 0 12 Findlay 0.00 30 72 0 67 1 3 0 0 0 0 13 Fort Lewis 0.00 4 23 0 7 5 4 0 0 0 0 14 Grand Valley State 0.00 8 23 0 63 2 2 0 0 0 0 15 Indianapolis 0.00 24 23 0 78 2 3 0 0 0 0 16 Lake Erie 0.00 27 68 0 68 1 2 0 0 0 0 17 Lewis 0.00 6 55 0 57 7 6 0 0 0 0 18 Lindenwood 0.00 22 56 0 44 6 7 0 0 0 0 19 Maryville (MO) 0.00 8 23 0 50 5 5 0 0 0 0 20 McKendree 0.00 8 12 0 60 3 3 0 0 0 0 21 Northern Michigan 0.00 8 23 0 17 2 2 0 0 0 0 22 Notre Dame (OH) 0.00 8 18 0 54 3 3 0 0 0 0 23 Oklahoma Baptist 0.00 8 23 0 70 1 1 0 0 0 0 24 Quincy 0.00 8 23 0 76 2 2 0 0 0 0 25 Regis (CO) 0.00 8 60 0 29 4 4 0 0 0 0 26 Rockhurst 0.00 23 62 0 10 5 7 0 0 0 0 27 Shepherd 0.00 31 23 0 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 28 Tiffin 0.00 24 64 0 64 2 3 0 0 0 0 29 Ursuline 0.00 29 66 0 82 4 9 0 0 0 0 30 UVa-Wise 0.00 31 75 0 83 0 0 0 0 0 0 31 Walsh 0.00 8 23 0 80 1 1 0 0 0 0 32 West Virginia Wesley 0.00 8 23 0 47 1 1 0 0 0 0 33 Westminster 0.00 8 23 0 22 1 1 0 0 0 0 34 Wheeling 0.00 31 75 0 83 0 0 0 0 0 0