Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Women s Division I Championship Tournament
The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with
the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ).
The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability
goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games.
 
Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
 
 [1] Won-loss record
 [2] Strength of schedule
 [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI)
 [-] Head-to-head competition
 [-] Results vs. common opponents
 [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams)
 [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%)
 
Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
 
 [6] Late-season performance (last six games)
 [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large).
 
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
 
Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability
 
 
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 Algorithm

 
 The NCAA will reduce the number of AQ and At-large team invites 
 by up to 25% for all divisions for 2021
 RNK TEAMNAME             CONFERENCE         TOURN     AQ
                                             PROB     PROB    RPI QW  SOS  W  L
                                                              [3] [4] [2]
 
   1 Boston C             Atlantic Coast    100.00     0.00    2   2   2  18  3
   2 Denver               Big East            0.00   100.00   11   7  24  16  2
   3 Fairfield            Metro Atlantic      0.00   100.00   14   8  37  13  2
   4 Florida              American            0.00   100.00    8   5   7  18  3
   5 High Point           Big South           0.00   100.00   38  66  35  10  8
   6 Jacksonville         Atlantic Sun        0.00   100.00   17  10  47  12  2
   7 JMU                  Colonial            0.00   100.00   16  16  15  12  5
   8 Loyola               Patriot League      0.00   100.00   10   9  26  11  3
   9 Mercer               Southern            0.00   100.00   45  71  29   7  8
  10 Northwestern         Big Ten             0.00   100.00    5   4  25  15  1
  11 Robert Morris        MAC                 0.00   100.00   39  14  79  14  3
  12 Stanford             Pacific 12          0.00   100.00    9  12  41  11  1
  13 Stony Brook          America East        0.00   100.00    6   6  10  16  3
  14 Umass                Atlantic 10         0.00   100.00   12  15  22  15  3
  15 UNC                  Atlantic Coast      0.00   100.00    1   1   3  20  1
  16 Wagner               Northeast           0.00   100.00   35  51  40  10  5
  17 Akron                MAC                 0.00     0.00   96  84 102   7  8
  18 Albany               America East        0.00     0.00   26  32  13  11  7
  19 American             Patriot League      0.00     0.00   83  81  70   1  7
  20 Army                 Patriot League      0.00     0.00   53  49  90   5  4
  21 ASU                  Pacific 12          0.00     0.00   34  41  21  10  6
  22 Binghamton           America East        0.00     0.00   86  64 101   3  5
  23 Boston U             Patriot League      0.00     0.00   68  62  94   4  6
  24 Bryant               Northeast           0.00     0.00   60  67  62   7  6
  25 Bucknell             Patriot League      0.00     0.00   76  63  91   3  6
  26 Butler               Big East            0.00     0.00   99 111  66   1 11
  27 California           Pacific 12          0.00     0.00   94 119  45   2 16
  28 Campbell             Big South           0.00     0.00   67  73  88   8  7
  29 Canisius             Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   63  85  56   2  8
  30 Central CT           Northeast           0.00     0.00  104 117  71   0 13
  31 Central MI           MAC                 0.00     0.00   61  65  84   8  6
  32 Cincinnati           American            0.00     0.00   52  83  32   7 10
  33 Colgate              Patriot League      0.00     0.00   70  56 100   5  5
  34 Colorado             Pacific 12          0.00     0.00   27  57  20   8  7
  35 Cst Carolina         Southern            0.00     0.00   42  68  39  10  7
  36 Davidson             Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   32  35  55  11  4
  37 Delaware             Colonial            0.00     0.00  100  69  99   1  5
  38 Delaware St          Southern            0.00     0.00  111 106 111   1  9
  39 Detroit Mercy        MAC                 0.00     0.00  102  98 104   2  8
  40 Drexel               Colonial            0.00     0.00    7  13  30  13  3
  41 Duke                 Atlantic Coast      0.00     0.00   15  31   8  11  8
  42 Duquesne             Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   62  58  89   4  5
  43 E Carolina           American            0.00     0.00   57 107  23   4 12
  44 Elon                 Colonial            0.00     0.00   19  17  67   9  2
  45 Fresno State         MPSF                0.00     0.00   93 114  53   2 12
  46 Furman               Southern            0.00     0.00   46  39  75  12  4
  47 GardWebb             Big South           0.00     0.00   97 101  96   4  9
  48 Georgetown           Big East            0.00     0.00   59  78  28   6 10
  49 GMU                  Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   90 118  44   1 14
  50 GWU                  Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   77  76  87   5  7
  51 Hartford             America East        0.00     0.00  109 102 107   0  9
  52 Hofstra              Colonial            0.00     0.00   13  42  12   6  7
  53 Holy Cross           Patriot League      0.00     0.00   95  52 109   2  4
  54 Iona                 Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00  105 110  86   0 11
  55 JHU                  Big Ten             0.00     0.00   48  59  54   8  7
  56 Kennesaw St          Atlantic Sun        0.00     0.00   79 103  60   4 10
  57 Kent State           MAC                 0.00     0.00   98 108  95   5 10
  58 La Salle             Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   71  86  65   5  9
  59 Lafayette            Patriot League      0.00     0.00  108  79 103   0  6
  60 Lehigh               Patriot League      0.00     0.00   25  33  38   9  4
  61 Liberty              Atlantic Sun        0.00     0.00   49  70  34  10  9
  62 LIU                  Northeast           0.00     0.00   56  53  68   9  5
  63 Longwood             Big South           0.00     0.00  106 115  92   3 12
  64 Louisville           Atlantic Coast      0.00     0.00   28  46   5   5 11
  65 Manhattan            Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   85  96  61   3  9
  66 Marist               Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   43  54  51   3  5
  67 Marquette            Big East            0.00     0.00   69  80  74   6  8
  68 Maryland             Big Ten             0.00     0.00   37  43  27  10  7
  69 Merrimack            Northeast           0.00     0.00  103 113  85   2 11
  70 Michigan             Big Ten             0.00     0.00   87  99  82   3  9
  71 Monmouth NJ          Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   54  47  72   8  5
  72 Mt St Marys          Northeast           0.00     0.00   21  26  31  13  3
  73 Navy                 Patriot League      0.00     0.00   36  40  63   7  4
  74 Niagara              Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   24  38  49   8  4
  75 Notre Dame           Atlantic Coast      0.00     0.00    4  11   4  11  7
  76 ODU                  American            0.00     0.00   91 116  42   3 14
  77 Oregon               Pacific 12          0.00     0.00   82  91  77   3  8
  78 OSU                  Big Ten             0.00     0.00   72  87  69   4  9
  79 Presbyterian         Big South           0.00     0.00  110 109 110   4 10
  80 PSU                  Big Ten             0.00     0.00   74  88  58   4  9
  81 Quinnipiac           Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   64  72  59   5  7
  82 Radford              Big South           0.00     0.00   80 112  64   6 12
  83 Richmond             Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   41  28  97  10  2
  84 Rutgers              Big Ten             0.00     0.00   47  61  18   7  9
  85 Sacred Heart         Northeast           0.00     0.00   78  77  80   6  7
  86 SDSU                 MPSF                0.00     0.00   73 100  52   5  9
  87 Siena                Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   20  29  43  11  3
  88 St Bonny             Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   89 105  81   2 10
  89 St Francis           Northeast           0.00     0.00   84  94  76   4  8
  90 St Josephs           Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   30  48  19  10  7
  91 Stetson              Atlantic Sun        0.00     0.00   75  92  57   1  8
  92 Syracuse             Atlantic Coast      0.00     0.00    3   3   1  17  4
  93 Temple               American            0.00     0.00   18  19   9  13  6
  94 Towson               Colonial            0.00     0.00   29  44  17   9  9
  95 UC Davis             MPSF                0.00     0.00   51  36  78  12  4
  96 Uconn                Big East            0.00     0.00   33  45  33  12  7
  97 Umass-L              America East        0.00     0.00   88  82  83   4  8
  98 UMBC                 America East        0.00     0.00   50  50  50   6  6
  99 UNH                  America East        0.00     0.00   92  75  98   4  7
 100 USC                  Pacific 12          0.00     0.00   40  55  36   9  7
 101 VA Tech              Atlantic Coast      0.00     0.00   44  74  14   4 11
 102 Vanderbilt           American            0.00     0.00   22  37  11  12  7
 103 VCU                  Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   65  97  48   7  9
 104 Vermont              America East        0.00     0.00   58  60  73   6  6
 105 Villanova            Big East            0.00     0.00   55  93  16   6 11
 106 Virginia             Atlantic Coast      0.00     0.00   23  34   6   9  9
 107 W&M                  Colonial            0.00     0.00   66  95  46   3  9
 108 Winthrop             Big South           0.00     0.00   81  89  93   7  8
 109 Wofford              Southern            0.00     0.00  107 104 108   2  9
 110 Youngstown St        MAC                 0.00     0.00  101  90 105   2  7