Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities
AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Women s Division I Championship Tournament
The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with
the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ).
The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability
goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games.
Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[1] Won-loss record
[2] Strength of schedule
[3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI)
[-] Head-to-head competition
[-] Results vs. common opponents
[4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams)
[5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%)
Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[6] Late-season performance (last six games)
[-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large).
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?
Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability
RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ
PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L
[3] [4] [2]
1 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 100.10 100.00 90 97 75 2 5
2 High Point Big South 100.10 100.00 36 53 9 1 4
3 Boston College Atlantic Coast 100.00 0.00 13 23 3 4 3
4 Brown Ivy League 100.00 0.00 19 37 19 4 3
5 Dartmouth Ivy League 100.00 0.00 4 4 16 5 0
6 Florida American 100.00 100.00 10 6 7 6 2
7 Georgetown Big East 100.00 100.00 38 46 41 4 3
8 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 100.00 100.00 51 17 88 3 1
9 James Madison Colonial 100.00 100.00 8 11 5 5 1
10 Johns Hopkins Big Ten 100.00 0.00 16 35 13 4 3
11 Lehigh Patriot League 100.00 0.00 27 25 37 6 2
12 Loyola Patriot League 100.00 100.00 1 2 1 5 0
13 Maryland Big Ten 100.00 0.00 17 29 6 3 3
14 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 100.00 0.00 11 12 15 4 1
15 Mercer Southern 100.00 100.00 76 39 111 5 2
16 Michigan Big Ten 100.00 0.00 2 13 2 5 1
17 North Carolina Atlantic Coast 100.00 100.00 5 1 20 7 0
18 Northwestern Big Ten 100.00 100.00 15 26 12 4 3
19 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast 100.00 0.00 7 5 22 6 0
20 Penn Ivy League 100.00 0.00 6 14 4 4 1
21 Penn State Big Ten 100.00 0.00 12 18 8 5 2
22 Princeton Ivy League 100.00 100.00 42 30 51 3 2
23 Richmond Atlantic 10 100.00 100.00 28 7 83 7 0
24 Southern California Pacific 12 100.00 100.00 3 3 14 6 0
25 Stony Brook America East 100.00 100.00 9 15 11 4 1
26 Syracuse Atlantic Coast 100.00 0.00 14 8 27 7 1
27 Virginia Atlantic Coast 100.00 0.00 18 44 23 5 3
28 Wagner Northeast 100.00 100.00 64 86 49 3 4
29 Akron Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 113 114 86 0 7
30 Albany America East 0.00 0.00 23 22 24 3 2
31 American Patriot League 0.00 0.00 57 9 115 7 0
32 Arizona State Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 53 50 70 5 3
33 Army Patriot League 0.00 0.00 30 10 85 7 0
34 Binghamton America East 0.00 0.00 69 91 53 3 5
35 Boston University Patriot League 0.00 0.00 58 42 56 3 3
36 Bryant Northeast 0.00 0.00 50 38 77 4 2
37 Bucknell Patriot League 0.00 0.00 99 94 99 3 5
38 Butler Big East 0.00 0.00 93 43 117 4 2
39 California Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 67 87 44 2 5
40 Campbell Big South 0.00 0.00 98 112 82 2 7
41 Canisius Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 91 95 59 1 5
42 Central Connecticut Northeast 0.00 0.00 116 108 95 0 6
43 Central Michigan Southern 0.00 0.00 56 57 40 2 3
44 Cincinnati American 0.00 0.00 77 76 74 3 4
45 Coastal Carolina Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 74 68 66 2 3
46 Colgate Patriot League 0.00 0.00 52 73 39 3 4
47 Colorado Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 25 20 26 3 2
48 Columbia Ivy League 0.00 0.00 101 115 50 0 7
49 Connecticut American 0.00 0.00 44 21 79 5 2
50 Cornell Ivy League 0.00 0.00 48 33 76 4 2
51 Davidson Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 46 71 28 2 4
52 Delaware Colonial 0.00 0.00 54 69 36 2 3
53 Delaware State Southern 0.00 0.00 115 102 113 1 5
54 Denver Big East 0.00 0.00 29 16 60 7 1
55 Detroit Mercy Southern 0.00 0.00 103 111 81 1 7
56 Drexel Colonial 0.00 0.00 43 34 78 5 2
57 Duke Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 40 27 52 6 3
58 Duquesne Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 79 58 87 3 3
59 East Carolina American 0.00 0.00 61 59 84 5 3
60 Elon Colonial 0.00 0.00 70 45 93 3 2
61 Fresno State MPSF 0.00 0.00 104 98 97 2 5
62 Furman Southern 0.00 0.00 68 77 65 3 4
63 Gardner-Webb Big South 0.00 0.00 82 51 110 6 3
64 George Mason Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 35 52 34 4 3
65 George Washington Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 105 116 55 0 7
66 Hartford America East 0.00 0.00 110 117 73 0 7
67 Harvard Ivy League 0.00 0.00 41 65 35 3 3
68 Hofstra Colonial 0.00 0.00 32 28 31 4 3
69 Holy Cross Patriot League 0.00 0.00 84 54 112 5 3
70 Howard Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 117 105 102 0 5
71 Iona Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 89 81 94 3 4
72 Kennesaw State Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 75 72 72 3 4
73 Kent State Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 108 109 67 0 6
74 La Salle Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 85 82 89 3 4
75 Lafayette Patriot League 0.00 0.00 73 63 92 4 3
76 Liberty Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 59 66 57 3 3
77 Long Island Northeast 0.00 0.00 86 103 47 1 5
78 Longwood Big South 0.00 0.00 60 92 42 3 5
79 Louisville Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 20 47 21 5 4
80 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 92 83 100 3 4
81 Marist Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 66 88 46 2 4
82 Marquette Big East 0.00 0.00 45 60 62 6 4
83 Massachusetts-Lowell America East 0.00 0.00 88 93 71 2 5
84 Merrimack Northeast 0.00 0.00 112 107 98 1 6
85 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 37 36 64 6 2
86 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 0.00 0.00 55 19 107 6 1
87 Navy Patriot League 0.00 0.00 49 70 30 2 4
88 New Hampshire America East 0.00 0.00 95 74 69 1 4
89 Niagara Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 78 78 80 3 4
90 Ohio State Big Ten 0.00 0.00 31 48 29 5 4
91 Old Dominion Big East 0.00 0.00 107 106 109 3 6
92 Oregon Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 87 99 68 2 5
93 Presbyterian Big South 0.00 0.00 106 100 101 2 5
94 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 94 84 103 3 4
95 Radford Big South 0.00 0.00 102 113 90 2 7
96 Robert Morris Northeast 0.00 0.00 71 40 108 5 2
97 Rutgers Big Ten 0.00 0.00 34 55 32 5 4
98 Sacred Heart Northeast 0.00 0.00 114 104 105 1 5
99 Saint Francis Northeast 0.00 0.00 100 64 116 4 3
100 Saint Joseph's Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 47 61 54 4 3
101 San Diego State MPSF 0.00 0.00 24 31 25 3 2
102 Siena Metro Atlantic 0.00 0.00 62 79 48 3 4
103 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 109 41 118 5 2
104 Stanford Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 22 62 10 3 4
105 Stetson Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 111 90 106 1 4
106 Temple American 0.00 0.00 80 75 96 5 4
107 Towson Colonial 0.00 0.00 33 56 18 2 4
108 UC Davis MPSF 0.00 0.00 63 67 63 3 3
109 UMBC America East 0.00 0.00 65 89 38 2 4
110 Vanderbilt American 0.00 0.00 21 49 17 4 4
111 Vermont America East 0.00 0.00 81 80 91 4 4
112 Villanova Big East 0.00 0.00 72 96 58 3 5
113 Virginia Commonwealt Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 97 85 104 3 4
114 Virginia Tech Atlantic Coast 0.00 0.00 26 24 33 7 3
115 William & Mary Colonial 0.00 0.00 83 101 61 2 5
116 Winthrop Big South 0.00 0.00 118 118 114 0 7
117 Wofford Southern 0.00 0.00 96 110 43 0 6
118 Yale Ivy League 0.00 0.00 39 32 45 3 2
