Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities
AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Women s Division I Championship Tournament
The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with
the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ).
The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability
goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games.
Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[1] Won-loss record
[2] Strength of schedule
[3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI)
[-] Head-to-head competition
[-] Results vs. common opponents
[4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams)
[5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%)
Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[6] Late-season performance (last six games)
[-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large).
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?
Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability
Algorithm
RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ
PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L
[3] [4] [2]
