PROBABILITIES

The NCAA Selection Committee has criteria for selecting teams as at-large invitees. We have computerized these criteria and provide a normalized list under the at-large column from 1.0 (greatest chance) to 0.0 (lowest chance). However, we do not know how the committee weighs each criteria nor what other factors the committee takes into account. Therefore we provide a list in order of teams the algorithm computes to have the best chances. At-large Rating is an indication (proportional to probability) of a teams chances for an at-large selection. Rank Team Name Conference AQ % At-Large At-Large W - L Rating Ranking 2 Salisbury CAC 100.00 0.95 1 7 0 3 Ursinus Centennial 100.00 0.94 2 6 0 16 John Carroll OAC 100.00 0.84 3 3 1 25 RIT Liberty 100.00 0.81 4 4 0 26 DeSales MAC-Freedom 100.00 0.80 5 3 1 28 Cortland SUNYAC 100.00 0.79 6 2 1 35 Denison NCAC 100.00 0.76 7 4 0 36 Norwich GNAC 100.00 0.76 8 1 2 51 Washington & Lee ODAC 100.00 0.69 9 3 3 58 Illinois Wesleyan CCIW 100.00 0.67 10 4 2 64 Stockton CSAC 100.00 0.65 11 5 0 69 Tufts NESCAC 100.00 0.64 12 3 0 75 Elizabethtown Landmark 100.00 0.62 13 3 3 79 Stevenson MAC-Commonwe 100.00 0.61 14 1 3 83 St. John Fisher Empire 8 100.00 0.59 15 3 1 92 New England NECC 100.00 0.56 16 3 2 97 Hope MIAA 100.00 0.55 17 3 0 98 Concordia-Wisc. MLC 100.00 0.55 18 4 1 105 Western New Eng. CCC 100.00 0.52 19 3 1 108 Rhodes Southern 100.00 0.51 20 5 2 112 Piedmont USA South 100.00 0.49 21 4 2 117 Maritime Skyline 100.00 0.47 22 3 1 131 Grove City Presidents 100.00 0.41 23 1 2 132 Morrisville NEAC 100.00 0.41 24 0 2 138 Springfield NEWMAC 100.00 0.37 25 0 4 146 Keene State LEC 100.00 0.25 26 0 3 148 Transylvania Heartland 100.00 0.20 27 3 2 POOL 1 1 Union Liberty 0.00 1.00 1 3 1 5 Christ. Newport CAC 0.00 0.91 2 5 1 6 Brockport SUNYAC 0.00 0.90 3 2 1 7 St. Mary's CAC 0.00 0.89 4 5 1 8 Monmouth (IL) MLC 0.00 0.89 5 3 3 9 So. Virginia CAC 0.00 0.88 6 6 1 10 Geneseo SUNYAC 0.00 0.88 7 3 1 11 Rensselaer Liberty 0.00 0.87 8 4 1 12 Kean CSAC 0.00 0.87 9 3 0 13 Ithaca Liberty 0.00 0.85 10 2 2 14 U. of New England CCC 0.00 0.84 11 4 1 15 Trine MIAA 0.00 0.84 12 4 0 17 Stevens MAC-Freedom 0.00 0.83 13 3 2 18 Dickinson Centennial 0.00 0.83 14 3 2 19 Potsdam SUNYAC 0.00 0.82 15 2 1 20 York CAC 0.00 0.82 16 4 2 22 Hampden-Sydney ODAC 0.00 0.82 17 4 1 23 Williams NESCAC 0.00 0.81 18 3 0 24 Oswego SUNYAC 0.00 0.81 19 3 0 27 St. Lawrence Liberty 0.00 0.80 20 3 0 29 Carthage CCIW 0.00 0.79 21 4 1 30 Oberlin NCAC 0.00 0.78 22 2 1 31 King's MAC-Freedom 0.00 0.78 23 5 0 32 Clarkson Liberty 0.00 0.78 24 2 1 33 Endicott CCC 0.00 0.78 25 2 2 34 Franklin & Marshal Centennial 0.00 0.77 26 3 1 37 U. of Northwestern MLC 0.00 0.76 27 3 0 38 Nazareth Empire 8 0.00 0.76 28 3 2 39 Mass. Maritime NEWMAC 0.00 0.74 29 1 1 40 Wooster NCAC 0.00 0.74 30 2 2 41 Alfred Empire 8 0.00 0.73 31 3 2 42 Randolph-Macon ODAC 0.00 0.73 32 6 0 43 Widener MAC-Commonwe 0.00 0.73 33 4 1 44 Marian MLC 0.00 0.72 34 1 1 45 Pfeiffer USA South 0.00 0.72 35 2 2 46 Guilford ODAC 0.00 0.72 36 5 2 47 Skidmore Liberty 0.00 0.71 37 2 2 48 Kenyon NCAC 0.00 0.70 38 5 0 49 Gettysburg Centennial 0.00 0.70 39 5 1 50 Wentworth CCC 0.00 0.69 40 3 1 52 Bridgewater ODAC 0.00 0.69 41 2 2 53 Calvin MIAA 0.00 0.68 42 3 1 54 Scranton Landmark 0.00 0.68 43 3 3 55 Benedictine (IL) MLC 0.00 0.68 44 4 1 56 Babson NEWMAC 0.00 0.68 45 3 2 59 Montclair State CSAC 0.00 0.67 46 3 2 60 MSOE MLC 0.00 0.67 47 3 1 61 Roger Williams CCC 0.00 0.67 48 3 2 62 UMass Boston LEC 0.00 0.66 49 4 0 63 Maine Maritime NAC 0.00 0.65 50 3 1 65 Virginia Wesleyan ODAC 0.00 0.65 51 4 1 66 Hiram NCAC 0.00 0.65 52 4 1 67 Swarthmore Centennial 0.00 0.65 53 3 2 68 Eastern Conn. LEC 0.00 0.65 54 2 0 70 Salve Regina CCC 0.00 0.63 55 4 1 71 Keuka NEAC 0.00 0.63 56 2 0 72 Hilbert NEAC 0.00 0.63 57 3 1 73 Regis GNAC 0.00 0.63 58 1 1 74 Western Conn. LEC 0.00 0.63 59 5 1 77 Muhlenberg Centennial 0.00 0.61 60 4 0 78 Methodist USA South 0.00 0.61 61 3 3 82 Albion MIAA 0.00 0.60 62 4 2 84 Plattsburgh SUNYAC 0.00 0.59 63 2 1 85 Misericordia MAC-Freedom 0.00 0.59 64 3 1 86 Goucher Landmark 0.00 0.59 65 3 3 87 Middlebury NESCAC 0.00 0.58 66 2 0 88 Farmingdale St. Skyline 0.00 0.58 67 6 0 89 Greensboro USA South 0.00 0.57 68 4 3 90 Trinity NESCAC 0.00 0.57 69 2 1 91 Baldwin Wallace OAC 0.00 0.56 70 2 2 93 Adrian MIAA 0.00 0.56 71 3 1 94 Hamilton NESCAC 0.00 0.55 72 2 1 95 Hendrix Southern 0.00 0.55 73 3 3 96 Ohio Northern OAC 0.00 0.55 74 4 2 99 Dean College NECC 0.00 0.54 75 1 1 100 Delaware Valley MAC-Freedom 0.00 0.53 76 3 3 101 So. Maine LEC 0.00 0.53 77 1 1 102 MIT NEWMAC 0.00 0.53 78 3 1 103 Birmingham-Souther Southern 0.00 0.53 79 4 4 104 Thiel Presidents 0.00 0.52 80 3 3 106 No. Central (IL) CCIW 0.00 0.52 81 3 1 107 Albertus Magnus GNAC 0.00 0.51 82 1 1 109 Arcadia MAC-Commonwe 0.00 0.50 83 4 2 110 Otterbein OAC 0.00 0.50 84 3 2 111 St. Joseph's (ME) GNAC 0.00 0.49 85 3 1 113 Shenandoah ODAC 0.00 0.49 86 3 2 114 Mount Union OAC 0.00 0.49 87 4 2 115 Dubuque CCIW 0.00 0.48 88 2 2 116 Wesleyan NESCAC 0.00 0.48 89 2 1 118 Wittenberg NCAC 0.00 0.46 90 2 2 119 Ferrum ODAC 0.00 0.46 91 3 3 121 Emerson NEWMAC 0.00 0.45 92 2 2 122 Wilmington (OH) OAC 0.00 0.45 93 3 0 123 Anna Maria GNAC 0.00 0.44 94 3 2 124 SUNY Poly NEAC 0.00 0.44 95 2 2 125 Saint Joseph (CT) GNAC 0.00 0.44 96 2 1 126 Drew Landmark 0.00 0.44 97 3 2 127 Rivier GNAC 0.00 0.44 98 2 2 128 Amherst NESCAC 0.00 0.43 99 2 1 129 Kalamazoo MIAA 0.00 0.42 100 4 1 130 Mt. St. Vincent Skyline 0.00 0.42 101 3 0 133 Connecticut Col. NESCAC 0.00 0.40 102 1 1 134 Cornell College MLC 0.00 0.40 103 1 1 136 Vassar Liberty 0.00 0.39 104 2 2 137 Oglethorpe Southern 0.00 0.38 105 5 4 139 Salem State LEC 0.00 0.37 106 2 1 140 Houghton Empire 8 0.00 0.37 107 2 2 141 Alvernia MAC-Commonwe 0.00 0.37 108 2 2 142 Marietta OAC 0.00 0.35 109 3 3 143 Saint Vincent Presidents 0.00 0.33 110 3 1 144 Elmira Empire 8 0.00 0.32 111 2 2 145 Wheaton NEWMAC 0.00 0.29 112 3 2 147 Purchase Skyline 0.00 0.22 113 1 0 150 Albright MAC-Commonwe 0.00 0.00 114 2 3 151 Alfred State NEAC 0.00 0.00 115 0 2 152 Allegheny NCAC 0.00 0.00 116 1 3 153 Alma MIAA 0.00 0.00 117 1 3 154 Anderson Heartland 0.00 0.00 118 1 4 155 Augustana CCIW 0.00 0.00 119 1 5 156 Aurora MLC 0.00 0.00 120 2 4 157 Averett USA South 0.00 0.00 121 0 6 158 Bard Liberty 0.00 0.00 122 1 2 159 Bates NESCAC 0.00 0.00 123 1 4 160 Becker NECC 0.00 0.00 124 0 3 161 Beloit MLC 0.00 0.00 125 1 2 162 Berry Southern 0.00 0.00 126 0 4 163 Bethany Presidents 0.00 0.00 127 0 3 164 Bowdoin NESCAC 0.00 0.00 128 0 2 165 Bryn Athyn CSAC 0.00 0.00 129 0 4 166 Canton NAC 0.00 0.00 130 1 2 167 Capital OAC 0.00 0.00 131 1 4 168 Carroll CCIW 0.00 0.00 132 1 3 169 Castleton LEC 0.00 0.00 133 0 3 170 Catholic Landmark 0.00 0.00 134 3 4 171 Cazenovia NEAC 0.00 0.00 135 0 2 173 Centenary (NJ) CSAC 0.00 0.00 136 0 4 174 Centre Southern 0.00 0.00 137 2 3 175 Chatham Presidents 0.00 0.00 138 2 4 176 Clark NEWMAC 0.00 0.00 139 0 4 177 Coast Guard NEWMAC 0.00 0.00 140 2 4 178 Cobleskill NEAC 0.00 0.00 141 0 1 179 Colby NESCAC 0.00 0.00 142 0 2 180 Concordia-Chic. MLC 0.00 0.00 143 0 2 181 Curry CCC 0.00 0.00 144 0 3 183 Delhi NAC 0.00 0.00 145 2 3 184 DePauw NCAC 0.00 0.00 146 1 4 185 Earlham Heartland 0.00 0.00 147 0 3 186 Eastern MAC-Freedom 0.00 0.00 148 2 4 187 Elmhurst CCIW 0.00 0.00 149 1 5 188 Emmanuel (MA) GNAC 0.00 0.00 150 0 3 189 FDU-Florham MAC-Freedom 0.00 0.00 151 1 3 190 Franciscan Presidents 0.00 0.00 152 0 3 191 Gordon CCC 0.00 0.00 153 2 3 192 Hanover Heartland 0.00 0.00 154 2 4 193 Hartwick Empire 8 0.00 0.00 155 0 2 194 Haverford Centennial 0.00 0.00 156 0 5 195 Heidelberg OAC 0.00 0.00 157 1 3 196 Hood MAC-Commonwe 0.00 0.00 158 1 2 197 Huntingdon USA South 0.00 0.00 159 3 6 198 Husson NAC 0.00 0.00 160 0 5 199 Illinois Tech MLC 0.00 0.00 161 0 1 201 JWU-Providence GNAC 0.00 0.00 162 1 3 202 Keystone CSAC 0.00 0.00 163 0 2 203 LaGrange USA South 0.00 0.00 164 2 5 204 Lasell GNAC 0.00 0.00 165 1 2 205 Lebanon Valley MAC-Commonwe 0.00 0.00 166 1 4 206 Lycoming MAC-Commonwe 0.00 0.00 167 2 3 207 Lynchburg ODAC 0.00 0.00 168 2 3 208 Manhattanville MAC-Freedom 0.00 0.00 169 1 3 209 Mary Washington CAC 0.00 0.00 170 3 4 212 McDaniel Centennial 0.00 0.00 171 2 3 213 MCLA NAC 0.00 0.00 172 0 3 214 Medaille NEAC 0.00 0.00 173 1 3 215 Merchant Marine Skyline 0.00 0.00 174 0 2 216 Messiah MAC-Commonwe 0.00 0.00 175 0 4 217 Mitchell NECC 0.00 0.00 176 1 4 218 Moravian Landmark 0.00 0.00 177 2 3 219 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 0.00 0.00 178 1 4 220 Mount St. Joseph Heartland 0.00 0.00 179 0 2 221 Muskingum OAC 0.00 0.00 180 0 3 222 New Paltz SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 181 1 2 223 Nichols CCC 0.00 0.00 182 1 4 226 NVU-Lyndon NAC 0.00 0.00 183 0 1 227 Ohio Wesleyan NCAC 0.00 0.00 184 2 3 228 Oneonta SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 185 1 2 229 Plymouth State LEC 0.00 0.00 186 1 2 230 Randolph ODAC 0.00 0.00 187 2 5 231 Roanoke ODAC 0.00 0.00 188 2 3 232 Rosemont CSAC 0.00 0.00 189 0 5 233 Sage Empire 8 0.00 0.00 190 1 4 234 Sewanee Southern 0.00 0.00 191 1 5 235 St. Joseph's (LI) Skyline 0.00 0.00 192 1 2 236 Susquehanna Landmark 0.00 0.00 193 1 6 237 Thomas NAC 0.00 0.00 194 0 1 238 UMass Dartmouth LEC 0.00 0.00 195 1 3 239 Utica Empire 8 0.00 0.00 196 0 4 240 Wabash NCAC 0.00 0.00 197 0 2 241 Washington & Jeffe Presidents 0.00 0.00 198 1 3 242 Washington Coll. Centennial 0.00 0.00 199 0 5 243 Wells NEAC 0.00 0.00 200 0 1 244 Westminster (PA) Presidents 0.00 0.00 201 1 5 245 Wilkes MAC-Freedom 0.00 0.00 202 1 2 246 William Peace USA South 0.00 0.00 203 2 3 POOL 2 4 Cabrini AEC 0.00 0.91 1 3 1 21 Whittier Independent 0.00 0.82 2 2 0 57 Neumann AEC 0.00 0.68 3 5 1 76 Colorado College SCAC 0.00 0.62 4 5 0 80 Southwestern SCAC 0.00 0.60 5 4 0 81 Gwynedd Mercy AEC 0.00 0.60 6 3 3 120 Wesley AEC 0.00 0.45 7 2 1 135 La Roche Independent 0.00 0.39 8 2 2 149 JWU-Denver SCAC 0.00 0.10 9 0 4 172 Centenary (LA) SCAC 0.00 0.00 10 0 6 182 Dallas SCAC 0.00 0.00 11 1 2 200 Immaculata AEC 0.00 0.00 12 1 2 210 Marymount AEC 0.00 0.00 13 1 5 211 Marywood AEC 0.00 0.00 14 2 5 224 No. Central (MN) Independent 0.00 0.00 15 0 1 225 Northland Independent 0.00 0.00 16 0 6