PROBABILITIES

The NCAA Selection Committee has criteria for selecting teams as at-large invitees. We have computerized these criteria and provide a normalized list under the at-large column from 1.0 (greatest chance) to 0.0 (lowest chance). However, we do not know how the committee weighs each criteria nor what other factors the committee takes into account. Therefore we provide a list in order of teams the algorithm computes to have the best chances. At-large Rating is an indication (proportional to probability) of a teams chances for an at-large selection. Algorithm
Rank Team Name Conference AQ % At-Large At-Large W - L Rating Ranking NORTH 3 Adelphi NE10 0.00 0.61 1 0 0 4 AIC NE10 0.00 0.24 2 0 0 5 AldersonBroad GMAC 0.00 0.88 3 0 0 7 Assumption NE10 0.00 0.20 4 0 0 10 Bentley NE10 0.00 0.25 5 0 0 11 Caldwell 0.00 0.26 6 0 0 13 Chestnut Hill CACC 0.00 0.96 7 0 0 18 Davenport GMAC 0.00 0.66 8 0 0 19 Davis&Elkins GMAC 0.00 0.63 9 0 0 20 Dominican CACC 0.00 0.72 10 0 0 23 Felician CACC 0.00 0.23 11 0 0 26 Frank Pierce NE10 0.00 0.23 12 0 0 28 Georgian Ct CACC 0.00 0.76 13 0 0 30 Lake Erie GMAC 0.00 1.00 14 0 0 32 Le Moyne NE10 0.00 0.18 15 0 0 41 Mercy East Coast 0.00 0.22 16 0 0 42 Mercyhurst GMAC 0.00 0.49 17 0 0 43 Molloy East Coast 0.00 0.25 18 0 0 48 NYIT East Coast 0.00 0.18 19 0 0 49 Pace NE10 0.00 0.18 20 0 0 51 Post CACC 0.00 0.18 21 0 0 54 Roberts Wes East Coast 0.00 0.63 22 0 0 57 Seton Hill GMAC 0.00 0.18 23 0 0 59 SNHU NE10 0.00 0.18 24 0 0 60 St Anselm NE10 0.00 0.52 25 0 0 62 St Michaels NE10 0.00 0.18 26 0 0 63 St Rose NE10 0.00 0.18 27 0 0 64 St Thom Aqui East Coast 0.00 0.18 28 0 0 68 UDC East Coast 0.00 0.18 29 0 0 69 Walsh GMAC 0.00 0.50 30 0 0 71 Wilmington DE CACC 0.00 0.41 31 0 0 SOUTH 1 Lincoln Mem South Atlant 0.00 0.76 1 0 0 2 Adams St RMAC 0.00 0.59 2 0 0 6 Anderson SC South Atlant 0.00 0.05 3 0 0 8 Barton Carolinas 0.00 0.68 4 0 0 9 Belmont Abbey Carolinas 0.00 0.67 5 0 0 12 Catawba South Atlant 0.00 0.65 6 0 0 14 Chowan Carolinas 0.00 0.26 7 0 0 15 Coker South Atlant 0.00 0.26 8 0 0 16 Colorado Mesa RMAC 0.00 0.46 9 0 0 17 CSU Pueblo RMAC 0.00 0.76 10 0 0 21 Emmanuel GA Carolinas 0.00 0.00 11 0 0 22 ERAU Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.32 12 0 0 24 Florida So Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.08 13 0 0 25 Florida Tech Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.05 14 0 0 27 Frostburg St East Coast 0.00 0.08 15 0 0 29 Indianapolis GLVC 0.00 0.63 16 0 0 31 Lander GLVC 0.00 0.62 17 0 0 33 Lees-McRae Carolinas 0.00 0.87 18 0 0 34 Lenoir-Rhyne South Atlant 0.00 0.67 19 0 0 35 Lewis GLVC 0.00 0.63 20 0 0 36 Limestone South Atlant 0.00 0.20 21 0 0 37 Lindenwood GLVC 0.00 0.62 22 0 0 38 Lynn Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.50 23 0 0 39 Mars Hill South Atlant 0.00 0.70 24 0 0 40 Maryville GLVC 0.00 0.61 25 0 0 44 Montevallo GLVC 0.00 0.58 26 0 0 45 Mt Olive Carolinas 0.00 0.59 27 0 0 46 N Greenville Carolinas 0.00 0.17 28 0 0 47 Newberry South Atlant 0.00 0.83 29 0 0 50 PBAU Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.00 30 0 0 52 Queens South Atlant 0.00 0.17 31 0 0 53 Quincy GLVC 0.00 0.62 32 0 0 55 Rockhurst GLVC 0.00 0.62 33 0 0 56 Rollins Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.00 34 0 0 58 Shorter GLVC 0.00 0.46 35 0 0 61 St Leo Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.00 36 0 0 65 Tampa Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.02 37 0 0 66 Tusculum South Atlant 0.00 0.81 38 0 0 67 UAH GLVC 0.00 0.00 39 0 0 70 WestminsterUT RMAC 0.00 0.88 40 0 0 72 Wingate South Atlant 0.00 0.43 41 0 0 73 Young Harris GLVC 0.00 0.00 42 0 0