PROBABILITIES

The NCAA Selection Committee has criteria for selecting teams as at-large invitees. We have computerized these criteria and provide a normalized list under the at-large column from 1.0 (greatest chance) to 0.0 (lowest chance). However, we do not know how the committee weighs each criteria nor what other factors the committee takes into account. Therefore we provide a list in order of teams the algorithm computes to have the best chances. At-large Rating is an indication (proportional to probability) of a teams chances for an at-large selection. Rank Team Name Conference AQ % At-Large At-Large W - L Rating Ranking NORTH 4 Le Moyne NE10 0.00 0.98 1 15 2 6 Adelphi NE10 0.00 0.93 2 16 2 10 Mercyhurst GMAC 0.00 0.87 3 13 3 11 Merrimack NE10 0.00 0.86 4 13 3 12 Seton Hill GMAC 0.00 0.85 5 12 4 14 Mercy East Coast 0.00 0.84 6 16 1 16 Pace NE10 0.00 0.82 7 13 4 17 LIU Post East Coast 0.00 0.79 8 11 5 26 Bentley NE10 0.00 0.66 9 9 5 28 Wilmington DE CACC 0.00 0.62 10 8 7 29 St. Thomas Aquin East Coast 0.00 0.58 11 7 7 30 Saint Anselm NE10 0.00 0.57 12 7 7 31 Chestnut Hill CACC 0.00 0.56 13 11 5 32 Assumption NE10 0.00 0.53 14 8 7 34 Georgian Court CACC 0.00 0.47 15 10 8 38 Hampton Independent 0.00 0.23 16 6 5 40 Alderson Broaddus GMAC 0.00 0.00 17 2 13 41 American Intl. NE10 0.00 0.00 18 0 16 45 Davis & Elkins GMAC 0.00 0.00 19 2 9 46 Dominican Coll. CACC 0.00 0.00 20 3 12 49 Felician CACC 0.00 0.00 21 0 13 50 Franklin Pierce NE10 0.00 0.00 22 5 8 51 Lake Erie GMAC 0.00 0.00 23 4 10 55 Molloy East Coast 0.00 0.00 24 7 8 59 NYIT East Coast 0.00 0.00 25 5 13 61 Post CACC 0.00 0.00 26 2 12 62 Roberts Wesleyan East Coast 0.00 0.00 27 7 8 63 Saint Michael's NE10 0.00 0.00 28 4 11 64 Saint Rose NE10 0.00 0.00 29 5 9 66 So. New Hampshire NE10 0.00 0.00 30 4 10 67 U. of DC East Coast 0.00 0.00 31 4 9 69 Walsh GMAC 0.00 0.00 32 4 10 70 Wheeling Jesuit GMAC 0.00 0.00 33 3 11 SOUTH 1 Limestone Carolinas 0.00 1.00 1 18 0 2 Belmont Abbey Carolinas 0.00 0.99 2 14 3 3 Queens U. Charl. South Atlant 0.00 0.98 3 13 4 5 Rockhurst GLVC 0.00 0.95 4 11 4 7 Tampa Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.92 5 14 5 8 Wingate South Atlant 0.00 0.89 6 13 3 9 Indianapolis GLVC 0.00 0.87 7 14 2 13 Catawba South Atlant 0.00 0.84 8 9 6 15 Rollins Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.84 9 10 5 18 Mount Olive Carolinas 0.00 0.78 10 12 4 19 Lynn Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.76 11 11 4 20 Colorado Mesa RMAC 0.00 0.76 12 10 8 21 Saint Leo Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.75 13 10 7 22 Florida Tech Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.75 14 7 5 23 Florida Southern Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.71 15 8 7 24 Lenoir-Rhyne South Atlant 0.00 0.68 16 8 8 25 Lindenwood Independent 0.00 0.67 17 10 5 27 Westminster UT RMAC 0.00 0.63 18 11 6 33 CSU Pueblo RMAC 0.00 0.47 19 7 7 35 Tusculum South Atlant 0.00 0.45 20 7 7 36 Newberry South Atlant 0.00 0.44 21 10 6 37 Maryville GLVC 0.00 0.42 22 8 6 38 Hampton Independent 0.00 0.23 23 6 5 39 Adams State RMAC 0.00 0.00 24 3 10 42 Barton Carolinas 0.00 0.00 25 5 12 43 Chowan Carolinas 0.00 0.00 26 2 14 44 Coker South Atlant 0.00 0.00 27 5 8 47 Embry-Riddle Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.00 28 7 9 48 Emmanuel GA Carolinas 0.00 0.00 29 4 12 52 Lees-McRae Carolinas 0.00 0.00 30 4 10 53 Lincoln Memorial South Atlant 0.00 0.00 31 4 10 54 Mars Hill South Atlant 0.00 0.00 32 3 12 56 Montevallo GLVC 0.00 0.00 33 6 9 57 NDNU Independent 0.00 0.00 34 1 9 58 North Greenville Carolinas 0.00 0.00 35 8 9 60 Palm Beach Atlanti Sunshine Sta 0.00 0.00 36 6 10 65 Shorter GLVC 0.00 0.00 37 0 13 68 UAH GLVC 0.00 0.00 38 4 8