Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 Complete List of At-Large predictions below.
 The past four years predictions were 34 out of 36 or 94%.
 
 Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag. 
 
 
 

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division II Championship Tournament

The Division II Men s Lacrosse Championship consists of an twelve-team, single-elimination tournament. Pairings are determined by regional alignments (North and South), with six teams being selected from each region. Teams must have a .500 or better record versus Division II opponents to be considered. There is no automatic qualification for the tournament. The prediction is based on the rankings of total record, in/region record, overall rpisos overall sos in-region and record against teams with a winning record. See NCAA for more info. Primary Factors for Selecting Teams [1] Division II in region Won-loss record [2] Division II winning percentage [3] Division II strength of schedule [-] Division II head-to-head competition [-] Division II Common opponents Secondary Factors for Selecting Teams [4] Division II results vs teams with a winning record [5] In-region strength of schedule [6] In-region Ratings Percentage Index Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability Algorithm

The NCAA will reduce the number of AQ and At-large team invites
by up to 25% for all divisions for 2021

NORTH RNK TEAMNAME TOURN SEL RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK REG TOTAL PROB W-L W-L RPI W-L SOS SOS W L T W L T TOT REG TOT >.5 TOT REG [2] [1] [6] [4] [3] [5] 1 Le Moyne 100.00 1 1 1 1 10 1 14 0 0 15 0 0 2 Adelphi 0.00 19 7 11 28 14 4 7 3 0 7 3 0 3 AIC 0.00 65 26 63 41 43 19 0 10 0 0 11 0 4 AldersonBroad 0.00 57 24 51 41 48 27 1 6 0 2 8 0 5 Assumption 0.00 55 21 46 41 35 13 2 7 0 2 7 0 6 Bentley 0.00 24 8 36 22 57 23 6 4 0 6 4 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Caldwell 0.00 37 15 57 33 70 28 5 6 0 5 6 0 8 Chestnut Hill 0.00 5 2 13 4 32 21 10 1 0 10 2 0 9 Davenport 0.00 59 26 60 41 53 26 0 0 0 1 8 0 10 Davis&Elkins 0.00 45 23 54 41 67 24 1 5 0 3 5 0 11 Dominican 0.00 29 10 26 19 41 6 5 4 0 5 4 0 12 Felician 0.00 52 18 67 41 37 29 2 4 0 2 6 0 13 Frank Pierce 0.00 41 17 48 41 60 18 5 7 0 5 7 0 14 Georgian Ct 0.00 32 12 44 41 65 22 7 6 0 7 6 0 15 Lake Erie 0.00 43 19 29 31 24 8 3 7 0 5 8 0 16 Mercy 0.00 3 3 7 3 26 9 9 1 0 9 1 0 17 Mercyhurst 0.00 4 5 6 9 18 17 10 2 0 12 2 0 18 Molloy 0.00 52 22 42 41 29 7 2 8 0 3 9 0 19 Pace 0.00 36 13 20 28 1 10 6 6 0 6 7 0 20 Post 0.00 65 26 69 41 63 15 0 8 0 0 8 0 21 Roberts Wes 0.00 25 8 23 41 42 16 6 4 0 7 5 0 22 Seton Hill 0.00 10 6 4 13 9 2 8 3 0 11 3 0 23 SNHU 0.00 34 13 39 41 56 11 6 6 0 6 6 0 24 St Anselm 0.00 8 4 9 6 1 3 13 2 0 13 3 0 25 St Michaels 0.00 51 20 59 33 66 25 3 8 0 3 8 0 26 St Rose 0.00 59 25 40 41 15 5 1 8 0 1 8 0 27 St Thom Aqui 0.00 65 26 55 41 31 20 0 6 0 0 6 0 28 Walsh 0.00 43 16 31 41 5 14 4 5 0 5 8 0 29 Wilmington DE 0.00 29 10 24 19 39 12 5 4 0 5 4 0 SOUTH RNK TEAMNAME TOURN SEL RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK REG TOTAL PROB W-L W-L RPI W-L SOS SOS W L T W L T TOT REG TOT >.5 TOT REG [2] [1] [6] [4] [3] [5] 1 Lenoir-Rhyne 100.00 6 2 3 4 11 1 14 2 0 14 3 0 2 Adams St 0.00 65 36 62 41 19 28 0 7 0 0 8 0 3 Anderson SC 0.00 50 30 41 39 33 7 4 10 0 4 10 0 4 Barton 0.00 22 15 30 36 4 36 7 5 0 8 5 0 5 Belmont Abbey 0.00 16 10 14 7 25 5 10 4 0 10 4 0 6 Catawba 0.00 37 22 28 25 28 17 5 6 0 5 6 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Chowan 0.00 63 34 64 41 58 13 1 11 0 1 11 0 8 Coker 0.00 39 24 38 39 45 10 6 8 0 6 8 0 9 Colorado Mesa 0.00 7 3 21 14 7 40 8 2 0 9 2 0 10 CSU Pueblo 0.00 45 20 53 41 19 39 3 3 0 3 5 0 11 Emmanuel GA 0.00 48 25 52 41 6 34 4 6 0 4 8 0 12 Florida So 0.00 55 32 47 41 36 26 2 7 0 2 7 0 13 Florida Tech 0.00 45 27 22 33 16 15 3 5 0 3 5 0 14 Frostburg St 0.00 14 36 12 14 22 14 0 0 0 6 2 0 15 Indianapolis 0.00 12 7 8 9 17 4 9 3 0 10 3 0 16 Lander 0.00 31 17 50 28 69 37 6 5 0 6 5 0 17 Lees-McRae 0.00 63 34 66 41 59 24 1 11 0 1 11 0 18 Lewis 0.00 41 28 43 38 54 22 3 7 0 5 7 0 19 Limestone 0.00 16 10 16 14 30 9 10 4 0 10 4 0 20 Lincoln Mem 0.00 65 36 58 41 34 29 0 9 0 0 9 0 21 Lindenwood 0.00 12 7 15 12 38 8 9 3 0 10 3 0 22 Lynn 0.00 14 7 17 22 40 23 6 2 0 6 2 0 23 Mars Hill 0.00 54 31 56 41 61 25 3 10 0 3 10 0 24 Maryville 0.00 32 22 35 25 50 20 5 6 0 7 6 0 25 Montevallo 0.00 16 10 33 14 64 16 10 4 0 10 4 0 26 Mt Olive 0.00 10 5 10 9 23 3 11 3 0 11 3 0 27 N Greenville 0.00 34 20 37 37 47 11 7 7 0 7 7 0 28 Newberry 0.00 25 15 25 22 44 19 7 5 0 7 5 0 29 PBAU 0.00 59 33 61 41 55 30 1 8 0 1 8 0 30 Queens 0.00 21 14 18 18 27 12 7 4 0 7 4 0 31 Quincy 0.00 65 36 65 41 51 21 0 9 0 0 10 0 32 Rockhurst 0.00 22 17 27 25 49 18 6 5 0 8 5 0 33 Rollins 0.00 19 13 32 41 62 32 7 3 0 7 3 0 34 Shorter 0.00 58 36 68 41 8 31 0 10 0 2 10 0 35 St Leo 0.00 49 28 45 41 46 27 3 7 0 3 7 0 36 Tampa 0.00 1 1 2 1 21 6 12 0 0 12 0 0 37 Tusculum 0.00 25 17 34 41 52 33 6 5 0 7 5 0 38 UAH 0.00 39 26 49 31 12 35 5 8 0 6 8 0 39 WestminsterUT 0.00 25 6 19 19 3 38 7 2 0 7 5 0 40 Wheeling 0.00 62 36 70 41 68 41 0 1 0 1 10 0 41 Wingate 0.00 9 3 5 7 13 2 12 3 0 12 3 0