Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 Complete List of At-Large predictions below.
 The past four years predictions were 34 out of 36 or 94%.
 
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Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division II Championship Tournament

The Division II Men s Lacrosse Championship consists of an twelve-team, single-elimination tournament. Pairings are determined by regional alignments (North and South), with six teams being selected from each region. Teams must have a .500 or better record versus Division II opponents to be considered. There is no automatic qualification for the tournament. The prediction is based on the rankings of total record, in/region record, overall rpi, sos overall, sos in-region and record against teams with a winning record. See NCAA for more info. Primary Factors for Selecting Teams [1] Division II in region Won-loss record [2] Division II winning percentage [3] Division II strength of schedule [-] Division II head-to-head competition [-] Division II Common opponents Secondary Factors for Selecting Teams [4] Division II results vs teams with a winning record [5] In-region strength of schedule [6] In-region Ratings Percentage Index Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?

Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability NORTH RNK TEAMNAME TOURN SEL RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK REG TOTAL PROB W-L W-L RPI W-L SOS SOS W L T' W L T TOT REG TOT >.5 TOT REG [2] [1] [6] [4] [3] [5] 1 Adelphi 100.00 3 4 4 3 25 19 14 2 0 16 2 0 2 Le Moyne 100.00 4 3 3 4 22 1 15 2 0 15 2 0 3 Mercy 100.00 2 1 12 2 48 12 16 1 0 16 1 0 4 Mercyhurst 100.00 7 2 9 11 28 24 11 1 0 13 3 0 5 Merrimack 100.00 7 6 11 8 34 3 13 3 0 13 3 0 6 Seton Hill 100.00 12 5 10 14 26 16 11 2 0 12 4 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Alderson Broaddus 0.00 65 30 63 47 8 10 1 7 0 2 13 0 8 American Intl. 0.00 68 31 60 47 44 5 0 16 0 0 16 0 9 Assumption 0.00 30 12 31 41 45 20 7 6 0 8 7 0 10 Bentley 0.00 22 10 24 28 40 11 9 5 0 9 5 0 11 Chestnut Hill 0.00 17 8 35 23 63 18 11 5 0 11 5 0 12 Davis & Elkins 0.00 63 27 68 47 69 30 2 7 0 2 9 0 13 Dominican Coll. 0.00 61 28 65 47 66 22 3 12 0 3 12 0 14 Felician 0.00 68 31 70 47 70 26 0 10 0 0 13 0 15 Franklin Pierce 0.00 44 20 45 47 54 15 5 8 0 5 8 0 16 Georgian Court 0.00 28 11 41 21 61 28 10 6 0 10 8 0 17 Lake Erie 0.00 51 19 39 47 35 14 4 6 0 4 10 0 18 LIU Post 0.00 17 8 17 14 31 4 11 5 0 11 5 0 19 Molloy 0.00 39 15 36 30 47 9 7 8 0 7 8 0 20 NYIT 0.00 56 22 29 37 19 13 5 10 0 5 13 0 21 Pace 0.00 10 7 13 12 37 2 13 4 0 13 4 0 22 Post 0.00 64 29 67 47 67 23 2 12 0 2 12 0 23 Roberts Wesleyan 0.00 39 17 30 41 41 17 6 8 0 7 8 0 24 Saint Anselm 0.00 33 13 27 41 39 7 7 7 0 7 7 0 25 Saint Michael's 0.00 57 26 50 47 49 25 3 10 0 4 11 0 26 Saint Rose 0.00 47 21 40 45 43 8 5 9 0 5 9 0 27 So. New Hampshire 0.00 51 24 37 47 32 6 4 10 0 4 10 0 28 St. Thomas Aquin 0.00 33 18 59 47 14 31 5 7 0 7 7 0 29 U. of DC 0.00 49 23 57 47 64 21 4 9 0 4 9 0 30 Walsh 0.00 51 16 51 41 56 32 4 5 0 4 10 0 31 Wheeling Jesuit 0.00 60 25 55 31 59 29 3 8 0 3 11 0 32 Wilmington DE 0.00 30 13 62 47 14 27 5 5 0 8 7 0 SOUTH RNK TEAMNAME TOURN SEL RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK RNK REG TOTAL PROB W-L W-L RPI W-L SOS SOS W L T W L T TOT REG TOT >.5 TOT REG [2] [1] [6] [4] [3] [5] 1 Belmont Abbey 100.00 6 4 2 5 16 1 14 3 0 14 3 0 2 Limestone 100.00 1 1 1 1 17 21 16 0 0 18 0 0 3 Queens U. Charl. 100.00 10 6 8 10 1 20 12 4 0 13 4 0 4 Rockhurst 100.00 15 8 16 14 1 12 9 4 0 11 4 0 5 Tampa 100.00 14 5 6 8 18 5 13 3 0 14 5 0 6 Wingate 100.00 7 2 7 7 27 23 13 2 0 13 3 0 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7 Adams State 0.00 59 35 61 47 13 30 1 9 0 3 10 0 8 Barton 0.00 50 32 53 31 62 18 3 12 0 5 12 0 9 Catawba 0.00 24 17 20 25 1 8 7 6 0 9 6 0 10 Chowan 0.00 66 33 64 47 1 34 2 10 0 2 14 0 11 Coker 0.00 44 25 44 47 51 19 5 8 0 5 8 0 12 Colorado Mesa 0.00 28 15 32 24 9 13 9 7 0 10 8 0 13 CSU Pueblo 0.00 33 26 54 47 24 38 4 7 0 7 7 0 14 Embry-Riddle 0.00 42 27 47 38 9 31 5 9 0 7 9 0 15 Emmanuel GA 0.00 58 29 52 47 1 37 4 10 0 4 12 0 16 Florida Southern 0.00 30 18 21 26 20 2 8 7 0 8 7 0 17 Florida Tech 0.00 26 16 25 28 11 16 6 5 0 7 5 0 18 Indianapolis 0.00 5 3 5 5 29 32 10 2 0 14 2 0 19 Lees-McRae 0.00 51 36 56 31 1 27 0 10 0 4 10 0 20 Lenoir-Rhyne 0.00 33 19 22 27 21 3 7 7 0 8 8 0 21 Lincoln Memorial 0.00 51 29 49 45 50 9 4 10 0 4 10 0 22 Lindenwood 0.00 19 10 23 21 42 15 8 4 0 10 5 0 23 Lynn 0.00 15 8 15 12 33 22 9 4 0 11 4 0 24 Mars Hill 0.00 61 34 58 47 60 36 2 11 0 3 12 0 25 Maryville 0.00 27 21 33 31 58 33 5 6 0 8 6 0 26 Montevallo 0.00 43 24 46 38 57 10 6 9 0 6 9 0 27 Mount Olive 0.00 12 7 14 14 36 14 11 4 0 12 4 0 28 NDNU 0.00 67 36 69 47 68 35 0 9 0 1 9 0 29 Newberry 0.00 23 13 43 31 65 29 8 6 0 10 6 0 30 North Greenville 0.00 38 22 28 47 38 6 7 9 0 8 9 0 31 Palm Beach Atlantic 0.00 46 27 42 47 46 28 5 9 0 6 10 0 32 Rollins 0.00 19 12 19 14 12 17 9 5 0 10 5 0 33 Saint Leo 0.00 25 13 18 19 23 7 8 6 0 10 7 0 34 Shorter 0.00 68 36 66 47 7 25 0 11 0 0 13 0 35 Tusculum 0.00 33 19 34 38 53 11 7 7 0 7 7 0 36 UAH 0.00 48 31 48 47 30 26 3 8 0 4 8 0 37 Westminster UT 0.00 21 11 26 20 52 4 11 6 0 11 6 0 38 Young Harris 0.00 41 23 38 31 55 24 5 7 0 6 7 0