Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities
AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
Last 7 years at-large accuracy: 53 out of 56 or 94%.
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Men s Division I Championship Tournament
For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide.
The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability.
The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences
are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference
RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are
selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00.
Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI*
[2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI)
[3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+
[4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins)
[5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
[-] Head-to-head competition
[-] Results against common opponents
[-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI)
[-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI)
[-] Location of the contests
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
Note that the SOS on Laxbytes computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the
10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation.
WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?
Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability
RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ
PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L
[3] [4] [2]
1 Army Patriot 10.00 10.00 15 14 24 13 4
2 Duke ACC 10.00 0.00 4 3 4 11 4
3 Georgetown Big East 10.00 10.00 16 13 28 13 4
4 Johns Hopkins Big Ten 10.00 0.00 8 15 1 8 7
5 Loyola Patriot 10.00 0.00 7 8 10 11 4
6 Marist MAAC 0.00 10.00 26 28 39 10 6
7 Maryland Big Ten 10.00 0.00 11 6 17 11 4
8 Notre Dame ACC 10.00 0.00 9 11 2 8 6
9 Penn Ivy 10.00 10.00 3 4 5 11 3
10 Penn State Big Ten 10.00 10.00 1 1 12 14 1
11 Richmond SoCon 10.00 10.00 19 21 13 10 6
12 Robert Morris Northeast 10.00 10.00 24 36 20 9 7
13 Syracuse ACC 10.00 0.00 10 9 15 9 4
14 Towson CAA 10.00 10.00 6 12 16 11 4
15 UMBC America East 10.00 10.00 51 53 52 6 8
16 Virginia ACC 10.00 0.00 2 2 11 13 3
17 Yale Ivy 10.00 0.00 5 5 8 12 3
18 Air Force SoCon 0.00 0.00 23 22 30 10 5
19 Albany America East 0.00 0.00 49 49 40 5 9
20 Bellarmine SoCon 0.00 0.00 63 65 64 3 10
21 Binghamton America East 0.00 0.00 69 67 63 2 11
22 Boston U. Patriot 0.00 0.00 27 27 42 11 6
23 Brown Ivy 0.00 0.00 32 34 19 7 9
24 Bryant Northeast 0.00 0.00 62 69 59 3 11
25 Bucknell Patriot 0.00 0.00 36 48 23 6 9
26 Canisius MAAC 0.00 0.00 54 52 53 8 8
27 Cleveland State Independent 0.00 0.00 43 31 41 8 7
28 Colgate Patriot 0.00 0.00 47 51 26 4 9
29 Cornell Ivy 0.00 0.00 12 7 3 10 5
30 Dartmouth Ivy 0.00 0.00 70 64 65 2 11
31 Delaware CAA 0.00 0.00 33 20 46 10 5
32 Denver Big East 0.00 0.00 13 17 18 10 5
33 Detroit Mercy MAAC 0.00 0.00 48 43 62 8 7
34 Drexel CAA 0.00 0.00 28 44 29 7 8
35 Fairfield CAA 0.00 0.00 53 57 49 5 9
36 Furman SoCon 0.00 0.00 58 61 44 4 10
37 Hampton Independent 0.00 0.00 73 29 73 6 5
38 Hartford America East 0.00 0.00 64 68 66 4 11
39 Harvard Ivy 0.00 0.00 45 45 35 5 8
40 High Point SoCon 0.00 0.00 20 10 31 13 3
41 Hobart Northeast 0.00 0.00 29 24 48 11 5
42 Hofstra CAA 0.00 0.00 44 54 34 6 9
43 Holy Cross Patriot 0.00 0.00 35 38 45 7 7
44 Jacksonville SoCon 0.00 0.00 40 47 21 6 9
45 Lafayette Patriot 0.00 0.00 60 66 60 4 11
46 Lehigh Patriot 0.00 0.00 30 32 14 9 8
47 Manhattan MAAC 0.00 0.00 66 56 72 6 8
48 Marquette Big East 0.00 0.00 38 39 36 6 8
49 Mercer SoCon 0.00 0.00 68 70 55 1 12
50 Michigan Big Ten 0.00 0.00 37 41 25 4 9
51 Monmouth MAAC 0.00 0.00 61 60 70 4 8
52 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 0.00 0.00 34 33 27 9 7
53 Navy Patriot 0.00 0.00 31 35 33 6 7
54 NJIT Independent 0.00 0.00 71 72 61 2 13
55 North Carolina ACC 0.00 0.00 18 16 6 8 7
56 Ohio State Big Ten 0.00 0.00 14 18 32 8 4
57 Princeton Ivy 0.00 0.00 25 25 22 7 7
58 Providence Big East 0.00 0.00 46 55 43 8 9
59 Quinnipiac MAAC 0.00 0.00 50 40 58 9 7
60 Rutgers Big Ten 0.00 0.00 22 26 7 7 8
61 Sacred Heart Northeast 0.00 0.00 39 37 47 9 6
62 Saint Joseph's Northeast 0.00 0.00 52 46 54 7 7
63 Siena MAAC 0.00 0.00 56 50 69 6 7
64 St. Bonaventure MAAC 0.00 0.00 67 73 50 0 13
65 St. John's Big East 0.00 0.00 57 63 57 4 10
66 Stony Brook America East 0.00 0.00 41 30 56 9 6
67 UMass CAA 0.00 0.00 21 19 38 10 5
68 UMass Lowell America East 0.00 0.00 59 62 68 5 9
69 Utah Independent 0.00 0.00 55 58 37 5 10
70 Vermont America East 0.00 0.00 42 42 51 8 7
71 Villanova Big East 0.00 0.00 17 23 9 8 7
72 VMI SoCon 0.00 0.00 65 59 67 4 9
73 Wagner Northeast 0.00 0.00 72 71 71 2 12
