# Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

``` AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
Last 7 years at-large accuracy: 53 out of 56 or 94%.

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Men s Division I Championship Tournament
For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide.
The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability.
The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences
are eligible for automatic qualification.  However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference
RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final  team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are
selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00.

Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams

[1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI*
[2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI)
[3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+
[4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins)
[5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
[-] Results against common opponents
[-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI)
[-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI)
[-] Location of the contests

Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
Note that the SOS on Laxbytes computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the
10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation.

WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?
Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability

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RNK TEAMNAME             CONFERENCE           TOURN      AQ
PROB      PROB   RPI QW SOS   W  L
[3] [4] [2]

1 Army                 Patriot              10.00    10.00   15  14  24  13  4
2 Duke                 ACC                  10.00     0.00    4   3   4  11  4
3 Georgetown           Big East             10.00    10.00   16  13  28  13  4
4 Johns Hopkins        Big Ten              10.00     0.00    8  15   1   8  7
5 Loyola               Patriot              10.00     0.00    7   8  10  11  4
6 Marist               MAAC                  0.00    10.00   26  28  39  10  6
7 Maryland             Big Ten              10.00     0.00   11   6  17  11  4
8 Notre Dame           ACC                  10.00     0.00    9  11   2   8  6
9 Penn                 Ivy                  10.00    10.00    3   4   5  11  3
10 Penn State           Big Ten              10.00    10.00    1   1  12  14  1
11 Richmond             SoCon                10.00    10.00   19  21  13  10  6
12 Robert Morris        Northeast            10.00    10.00   24  36  20   9  7
13 Syracuse             ACC                  10.00     0.00   10   9  15   9  4
14 Towson               CAA                  10.00    10.00    6  12  16  11  4
15 UMBC                 America East         10.00    10.00   51  53  52   6  8
16 Virginia             ACC                  10.00     0.00    2   2  11  13  3
17 Yale                 Ivy                  10.00     0.00    5   5   8  12  3
18 Air Force            SoCon                 0.00     0.00   23  22  30  10  5
19 Albany               America East          0.00     0.00   49  49  40   5  9
20 Bellarmine           SoCon                 0.00     0.00   63  65  64   3 10
21 Binghamton           America East          0.00     0.00   69  67  63   2 11
22 Boston U.            Patriot               0.00     0.00   27  27  42  11  6
23 Brown                Ivy                   0.00     0.00   32  34  19   7  9
24 Bryant               Northeast             0.00     0.00   62  69  59   3 11
25 Bucknell             Patriot               0.00     0.00   36  48  23   6  9
26 Canisius             MAAC                  0.00     0.00   54  52  53   8  8
27 Cleveland State      Independent           0.00     0.00   43  31  41   8  7
28 Colgate              Patriot               0.00     0.00   47  51  26   4  9
29 Cornell              Ivy                   0.00     0.00   12   7   3  10  5
30 Dartmouth            Ivy                   0.00     0.00   70  64  65   2 11
31 Delaware             CAA                   0.00     0.00   33  20  46  10  5
32 Denver               Big East              0.00     0.00   13  17  18  10  5
33 Detroit Mercy        MAAC                  0.00     0.00   48  43  62   8  7
34 Drexel               CAA                   0.00     0.00   28  44  29   7  8
35 Fairfield            CAA                   0.00     0.00   53  57  49   5  9
36 Furman               SoCon                 0.00     0.00   58  61  44   4 10
37 Hampton              Independent           0.00     0.00   73  29  73   6  5
38 Hartford             America East          0.00     0.00   64  68  66   4 11
39 Harvard              Ivy                   0.00     0.00   45  45  35   5  8
40 High Point           SoCon                 0.00     0.00   20  10  31  13  3
41 Hobart               Northeast             0.00     0.00   29  24  48  11  5
42 Hofstra              CAA                   0.00     0.00   44  54  34   6  9
43 Holy Cross           Patriot               0.00     0.00   35  38  45   7  7
44 Jacksonville         SoCon                 0.00     0.00   40  47  21   6  9
45 Lafayette            Patriot               0.00     0.00   60  66  60   4 11
46 Lehigh               Patriot               0.00     0.00   30  32  14   9  8
47 Manhattan            MAAC                  0.00     0.00   66  56  72   6  8
48 Marquette            Big East              0.00     0.00   38  39  36   6  8
49 Mercer               SoCon                 0.00     0.00   68  70  55   1 12
50 Michigan             Big Ten               0.00     0.00   37  41  25   4  9
51 Monmouth             MAAC                  0.00     0.00   61  60  70   4  8
52 Mount St. Mary's     Northeast             0.00     0.00   34  33  27   9  7
53 Navy                 Patriot               0.00     0.00   31  35  33   6  7
54 NJIT                 Independent           0.00     0.00   71  72  61   2 13
55 North Carolina       ACC                   0.00     0.00   18  16   6   8  7
56 Ohio State           Big Ten               0.00     0.00   14  18  32   8  4
57 Princeton            Ivy                   0.00     0.00   25  25  22   7  7
58 Providence           Big East              0.00     0.00   46  55  43   8  9
59 Quinnipiac           MAAC                  0.00     0.00   50  40  58   9  7
60 Rutgers              Big Ten               0.00     0.00   22  26   7   7  8
61 Sacred Heart         Northeast             0.00     0.00   39  37  47   9  6
62 Saint Joseph's       Northeast             0.00     0.00   52  46  54   7  7
63 Siena                MAAC                  0.00     0.00   56  50  69   6  7
64 St. Bonaventure      MAAC                  0.00     0.00   67  73  50   0 13
65 St. John's           Big East              0.00     0.00   57  63  57   4 10
66 Stony Brook          America East          0.00     0.00   41  30  56   9  6
67 UMass                CAA                   0.00     0.00   21  19  38  10  5
68 UMass Lowell         America East          0.00     0.00   59  62  68   5  9
69 Utah                 Independent           0.00     0.00   55  58  37   5 10
70 Vermont              America East          0.00     0.00   42  42  51   8  7
71 Villanova            Big East              0.00     0.00   17  23   9   8  7
72 VMI                  SoCon                 0.00     0.00   65  59  67   4  9
73 Wagner               Northeast             0.00     0.00   72  71  71   2 12

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