Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last 7 years at-large accuracy: 53 out of 56 or 94%.
 
 
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Men s Division I Championship Tournament
The sum of a teams rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Mens
Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for
automatic qualification.  However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will
compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected
at-large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probabilility goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for
 Selecting At-Large Teams
 
 [1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI*
 [2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI)
 [3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+
 [4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins)
 [5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
 [-] Head-to-head competition
 [-] Results against common opponents
 [-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI)
 [-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI)
 [-] Location of the contests
 
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
Note that the SOS on Laxbytes computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the
10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation.
Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = Selection Probability
 
 
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 Algorithm

 
 The NCAA will reduce the number of AQ and At-large team invites 
 by up to 25% for all divisions for 2021
 RNK TEAMNAME             CONFERENCE           TOURN      AQ
                                               PROB      PROB   RPI QW SOS   W  L
                                                               [3] [4] [2]
 
   1 Virginia             ACC                 100.00     0.00    2   1   1  14  4
   2 Air Force            SoCon                 0.00     0.00   41  58  15   4  9
   3 Albany               America East          0.00     0.00   26  36  21   8  5
   4 Army                 Patriot               0.00     0.00    9  12  13   7  4
   5 Bellarmine           SoCon                 0.00     0.00   59  67  50   5 10
   6 Binghamton           America East          0.00     0.00   37  39  60   5  4
   7 Boston U             Patriot               0.00     0.00   55  37  64   6  5
   8 Bryant               NEC                   0.00   100.00   14  31  14   9  4
   9 Bucknell             Patriot               0.00     0.00   52  57  52   2  6
  10 Canisius             MAAC                  0.00     0.00   39  45  58   5  5
  11 Cleveland St         Independent           0.00     0.00   66  62  67   3  7
  12 Colgate              Patriot               0.00     0.00   47  63  44   3  7
  13 Delaware             CAA                   0.00     0.00   19  23  32  10  3
  14 Denver               Big East              0.00     0.00   13   9   8  12  5
  15 Detroit Mercy        MAAC                  0.00     0.00   38  40  46   3  4
  16 Drexel               CAA                   0.00   100.00   12  14  20  10  3
  17 Duke                 ACC                   0.00     0.00    3   2   3  14  3
  18 Fairfield            CAA                   0.00     0.00   61  68  59   2  9
  19 Georgetown           Big East              0.00   100.00    7   6   7  13  3
  20 Hartford             America East          0.00     0.00   53  53  56   2  5
  21 High Point           SoCon                 0.00   100.00   17  24   9   8  6
  22 Hobart               NEC                   0.00     0.00   31  28  57   6  3
  23 Hofstra              CAA                   0.00     0.00   36  43  33   8  6
  24 Holy Cross           Patriot               0.00     0.00   62  38  65   2  4
  25 Jacksonville         SoCon                 0.00     0.00   35  46  30   7  7
  26 JHU                  B1G                   0.00     0.00   40  55  16   4  9
  27 Lafayette            Patriot               0.00     0.00   65  71  48   0 11
  28 Lehigh               Patriot               0.00   100.00   23   7  39  10  2
  29 LIU                  NEC                   0.00     0.00   51  47  63   6  5
  30 Loyola               Patriot               0.00     0.00   10  11   6  10  6
  31 Manhattan            MAAC                  0.00     0.00   27  41  29   5  5
  32 Marquette            Big East              0.00     0.00   44  54  35   4  8
  33 Maryland             B1G                   0.00   100.00    5   4  12  15  1
  34 Mercer               SoCon                 0.00     0.00   54  60  61   5  8
  35 Merrimack            NEC                   0.00     0.00   42  44  62   5  5
  36 Michigan             B1G                   0.00     0.00   48  59  28   3  9
  37 Monmouth             MAAC                  0.00   100.00   18  26  31   8  3
  38 Mt St Marys          NEC                   0.00     0.00   49  64  22   4  9
  39 Navy                 Patriot               0.00     0.00   20  10  37   6  3
  40 NJIT                 America East          0.00     0.00   56  72  36   1 10
  41 Notre Dame           ACC                   0.00     0.00    4   5   5   8  4
  42 OSU                  B1G                   0.00     0.00   45  50  47   4  7
  43 Providence           Big East              0.00     0.00   46  61  25   4  9
  44 PSU                  B1G                   0.00     0.00   43  51  43   4  7
  45 Quinnipiac           MAAC                  0.00     0.00   30  35  40   4  3
  46 Richmond             SoCon                 0.00     0.00   28  32  17   7  6
  47 Rob Morris           Independent           0.00     0.00   29  29  24   7  6
  48 Rutgers              B1G                   0.00     0.00   15  15  26   9  4
  49 Sacred Heart         NEC                   0.00     0.00   64  74  42   1 12
  50 Siena                MAAC                  0.00     0.00   63  66  49   0  8
  51 St Bonny             MAAC                  0.00     0.00   34  49  45   5  5
  52 St Johns             Big East              0.00     0.00   57  69  38   1 10
  53 St Josephs           NEC                   0.00     0.00   21  27  18   9  4
  54 Stony Brook          America East          0.00     0.00   33  42  23   8  6
  55 Syracuse             ACC                   0.00     0.00    6   8   4   7  6
  56 Towson               CAA                   0.00     0.00   22  48  10   6  8
  57 UMass                CAA                   0.00     0.00   32  52  27   4  6
  58 UMassLowell          America East          0.00     0.00   58  65  51   1  8
  59 UMBC                 America East          0.00     0.00   24  33  41   8  3
  60 UNC                  ACC                   0.00     0.00    1   3   2  13  3
  61 Utah                 Independent           0.00     0.00   50  56  54   4  7
  62 Vermont              America East          0.00   100.00   16  34  11   9  5
  63 Villanova            Big East              0.00     0.00   25  30  19   7  5
  64 VMI                  SoCon                 0.00     0.00   67  73  66   1 10
  65 Wagner               NEC                   0.00     0.00   60  70  55   1  9