PROBABILITIES
The NCAA Selection Committee has criteria for selecting teams as at-large invitees. We have computerized these
criteria and provide a normalized list under the at-large column from 1.0 (greatest chance) to 0.0 (lowest chance).
However, we do not know how the committee weighs each criteria nor what other factors the committee takes into
account. Therefore we provide a list in order of teams the algorithm computes to have the best chances.
At-large Rating is an indication (proportional to probability) of a teams chances for an at-large selection.
Rank Team Name Conference
AQ % At-Large At-Large W - L
Rating Ranking
2 Middlebury NESCAC 100.00 0.97 1 3 0
4 Mount Union Ohio 100.00 0.94 2 3 0
5 Endicott Comm. Coast 100.00 0.94 3 4 0
6 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 100.00 0.89 4 5 1
8 Albion MIAA 100.00 0.86 5 4 2
10 St. John Fisher Empire Eight 100.00 0.85 6 3 0
13 Catholic (DC) Landmark 100.00 0.84 7 3 0
15 Hamline Midwest 100.00 0.82 8 3 0
20 Gettysburg Centennial 100.00 0.80 9 4 1
31 Rhodes SAA 100.00 0.76 10 6 3
43 Brockport SUNYAC 100.00 0.73 11 2 1
45 College of New Jer NJAC 100.00 0.72 12 4 0
49 York Capital 100.00 0.72 13 4 1
53 William Smith Liberty Leag 100.00 0.71 14 3 2
54 Meredith USA South At 100.00 0.70 15 3 4
59 Westfield State MASCAC 100.00 0.69 16 4 1
66 Springfield NEWMAC 100.00 0.68 17 2 3
95 George Fox Northwest 100.00 0.63 18 2 1
98 Transylvania Heartland 100.00 0.62 19 3 2
106 Denison North Coast 100.00 0.60 20 1 3
108 Morrisville NEAC 100.00 0.59 21 2 2
121 Canton Independent 100.00 0.55 22 0 3
129 Illinois Wesleyan CCIW 100.00 0.53 23 2 5
147 Merchant Marine Skyline 100.00 0.48 24 1 1
158 Plymouth State Little East 100.00 0.45 25 1 5
159 Lebanon Valley Commonwealth 100.00 0.45 26 0 3
161 Johnson & Wales Great Northe 100.00 0.43 27 1 4
165 Notre Dame (MD) CSAC 100.00 0.42 28 1 2
169 Westminster (PA) President's 100.00 0.38 29 1 6
176 Misericordia Freedom 100.00 0.33 30 1 1
180 New England Colleg North Atlant 100.00 0.25 31 2 1
POOL 1
1 Franklin & Marshal Centennial 0.00 1.00 1 4 0
3 Tufts NESCAC 0.00 0.95 2 3 0
7 Ithaca Liberty Leag 0.00 0.87 3 5 0
9 Shenandoah Old Dominion 0.00 0.85 4 7 0
11 Geneseo SUNYAC 0.00 0.85 5 4 1
12 Fredonia SUNYAC 0.00 0.85 6 2 1
14 Connecticut Colleg NESCAC 0.00 0.83 7 3 1
16 Fort Lewis Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.81 8 2 0
17 Wheaton NEWMAC 0.00 0.80 9 4 1
18 North Central CCIW 0.00 0.80 10 5 0
19 Aurora Midwest 0.00 0.80 11 3 1
21 Simmons Great Northe 0.00 0.79 12 5 0
22 Swarthmore Centennial 0.00 0.79 13 4 1
23 Haverford Centennial 0.00 0.78 14 3 2
24 Chicago CCIW 0.00 0.77 15 3 0
25 St. Mary's (MD) Capital 0.00 0.77 16 5 2
28 DePauw North Coast 0.00 0.77 17 4 2
29 Wesleyan (CT) NESCAC 0.00 0.76 18 4 0
30 Salve Regina Comm. Coast 0.00 0.76 19 2 1
32 Stevens Empire Eight 0.00 0.76 20 3 2
33 Marymount Capital 0.00 0.76 21 7 0
34 Mary Washington Capital 0.00 0.75 22 5 2
35 RIT Liberty Leag 0.00 0.75 23 2 1
36 Cabrini CSAC 0.00 0.75 24 2 1
37 Juniata Landmark 0.00 0.75 25 4 2
38 Trinity (CT) NESCAC 0.00 0.74 26 2 1
39 Colby NESCAC 0.00 0.74 27 4 1
40 Vassar Liberty Leag 0.00 0.74 28 4 0
41 Kenyon North Coast 0.00 0.74 29 4 2
42 Rensselaer Liberty Leag 0.00 0.74 30 3 0
44 Moravian Landmark 0.00 0.73 31 4 2
46 Regis (MA) NECC 0.00 0.72 32 3 0
47 Willamette Northwest 0.00 0.72 33 2 1
48 Marywood CSAC 0.00 0.72 34 4 1
50 Utica Empire Eight 0.00 0.72 35 4 0
51 Drew Landmark 0.00 0.71 36 3 1
52 Allegheny North Coast 0.00 0.71 37 3 1
55 Amherst NESCAC 0.00 0.70 38 3 1
56 Arcadia Commonwealth 0.00 0.70 39 3 3
57 Salisbury Capital 0.00 0.70 40 3 2
58 Manhattanville Freedom 0.00 0.70 41 4 1
60 Cornell (IA) Midwest 0.00 0.69 42 2 2
61 Ferrum Old Dominion 0.00 0.69 43 4 0
62 Bryn Mawr Centennial 0.00 0.69 44 6 0
63 Messiah Commonwealth 0.00 0.68 45 4 2
64 Bard Liberty Leag 0.00 0.68 46 3 0
67 Maine-Farmington North Atlant 0.00 0.68 47 1 1
68 Kalamazoo MIAA 0.00 0.67 48 3 2
69 Widener Commonwealth 0.00 0.67 49 3 2
70 Lynchburg Old Dominion 0.00 0.67 50 3 2
71 Loras Midwest 0.00 0.67 51 3 1
72 Saint Joseph's (ME Great Northe 0.00 0.67 52 3 1
73 Clarkson Liberty Leag 0.00 0.67 53 2 2
74 Kean NJAC 0.00 0.67 54 3 1
75 Mass. Maritime MASCAC 0.00 0.66 55 3 1
76 Carroll CCIW 0.00 0.66 56 4 2
77 Birmingham-Souther SAA 0.00 0.66 57 4 4
78 Elizabethtown Landmark 0.00 0.66 58 4 2
79 Capital Ohio 0.00 0.65 59 3 2
80 Oberlin North Coast 0.00 0.65 60 4 2
81 Concordia-Chicago Midwest 0.00 0.65 61 5 0
82 Southern Virginia Capital 0.00 0.65 62 5 0
83 Earlham Heartland 0.00 0.64 63 4 1
84 Lasell Great Northe 0.00 0.64 64 2 0
85 Carthage CCIW 0.00 0.64 65 4 3
86 Ramapo NJAC 0.00 0.64 66 2 2
87 Saint Vincent President's 0.00 0.64 67 3 0
88 Union Liberty Leag 0.00 0.63 68 2 2
89 Western Connecticu Little East 0.00 0.63 69 2 1
90 Heidelberg Ohio 0.00 0.63 70 4 0
92 Plattsburgh State SUNYAC 0.00 0.63 71 4 0
94 Pfeiffer USA South At 0.00 0.63 72 2 2
96 Dickinson Centennial 0.00 0.62 73 3 3
97 DeSales Freedom 0.00 0.62 74 3 3
99 John Carroll Ohio 0.00 0.62 75 4 2
100 Bowdoin NESCAC 0.00 0.62 76 2 1
101 Albright Commonwealth 0.00 0.62 77 4 3
102 U. of New England Comm. Coast 0.00 0.62 78 2 2
103 St. Lawrence Liberty Leag 0.00 0.61 79 1 1
104 Rochester Liberty Leag 0.00 0.61 80 2 1
105 Ohio Northern Ohio 0.00 0.61 81 3 2
109 Coast Guard NEWMAC 0.00 0.59 82 3 2
110 Linfield Northwest 0.00 0.58 83 2 1
111 Otterbein Ohio 0.00 0.57 84 4 2
112 Bridgewater Old Dominion 0.00 0.57 85 3 3
113 Wooster North Coast 0.00 0.57 86 2 2
114 Stockton NJAC 0.00 0.57 87 4 0
115 Montclair State NJAC 0.00 0.56 88 2 2
116 Oswego SUNYAC 0.00 0.56 89 2 2
117 Greensboro USA South At 0.00 0.56 90 3 1
118 Fitchburg State MASCAC 0.00 0.55 91 3 1
119 Piedmont USA South At 0.00 0.55 92 3 3
120 Stevenson Commonwealth 0.00 0.55 93 2 2
122 Calvin MIAA 0.00 0.55 94 2 0
123 Mass.-Dartmouth Little East 0.00 0.55 95 2 2
124 Gwynedd-Mercy CSAC 0.00 0.54 96 3 2
126 Puget Sound Northwest 0.00 0.53 97 2 1
127 Emerson NEWMAC 0.00 0.53 98 2 1
128 Maritime Skyline 0.00 0.53 99 4 1
130 William Peace USA South At 0.00 0.52 100 2 2
131 Wesley Capital 0.00 0.52 101 4 1
132 Colby-Sawyer North Atlant 0.00 0.52 102 2 2
133 Roanoke Old Dominion 0.00 0.51 103 3 2
134 Muskingum Ohio 0.00 0.51 104 3 3
135 SUNY Poly NEAC 0.00 0.51 105 2 1
136 Goucher Landmark 0.00 0.51 106 4 2
137 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 0.00 0.50 107 4 3
138 Guilford Old Dominion 0.00 0.50 108 6 1
139 Marietta Ohio 0.00 0.50 109 5 1
140 Frostburg State Mountain Eas 0.00 0.50 110 2 2
141 Oneonta SUNYAC 0.00 0.50 111 3 2
142 Oglethorpe SAA 0.00 0.49 112 4 2
143 Mount Holyoke NEWMAC 0.00 0.49 113 2 2
144 Beloit Midwest 0.00 0.49 114 3 2
145 Benedictine Midwest 0.00 0.49 115 3 3
146 Potsdam SUNYAC 0.00 0.48 116 3 2
148 Anna Maria Great Northe 0.00 0.48 117 2 1
149 Eastern Connecticu Little East 0.00 0.47 118 2 2
150 Hanover Heartland 0.00 0.47 119 3 2
151 Framingham State MASCAC 0.00 0.47 120 2 2
152 Hendrix SAA 0.00 0.47 121 3 3
153 Eastern Freedom 0.00 0.47 122 2 1
154 Chatham President's 0.00 0.46 123 2 1
155 Houghton Empire Eight 0.00 0.46 124 3 2
156 Alma MIAA 0.00 0.46 125 2 2
157 Montevallo Gulf South 0.00 0.45 126 4 4
160 Felician CACC North 0.00 0.44 127 1 1
162 Emmanuel Great Northe 0.00 0.43 128 1 0
163 Clark NEWMAC 0.00 0.43 129 3 2
164 Saint Joseph Great Northe 0.00 0.42 130 2 1
166 Mount St. Joseph Heartland 0.00 0.39 131 1 0
167 Cedar Crest CSAC 0.00 0.39 132 1 1
168 Albertus Magnus Great Northe 0.00 0.38 133 1 1
170 Eastern Mennonite Old Dominion 0.00 0.38 134 1 1
171 Keuka NEAC 0.00 0.36 135 1 0
172 Waynesburg President's 0.00 0.36 136 1 1
173 Wells NEAC 0.00 0.36 137 1 1
174 Adrian MIAA 0.00 0.35 138 2 2
175 Smith NEWMAC 0.00 0.35 139 2 2
177 Hope MIAA 0.00 0.32 140 2 2
178 Purchase Skyline 0.00 0.31 141 1 0
179 Medaille NEAC 0.00 0.31 142 2 2
181 Alfred Empire Eight 0.00 0.00 143 0 2
182 Alvernia Commonwealth 0.00 0.00 144 2 3
183 Anderson Heartland 0.00 0.00 145 0 3
184 Augsburg Midwest 0.00 0.00 146 1 2
185 Augustana CCIW 0.00 0.00 147 2 3
186 Averett USA South At 0.00 0.00 148 1 5
187 Babson NEWMAC 0.00 0.00 149 2 3
188 Baldwin Wallace Ohio 0.00 0.00 150 2 4
189 Bates NESCAC 0.00 0.00 151 2 3
190 Bay Path NECC 0.00 0.00 152 0 2
191 Becker NECC 0.00 0.00 153 0 0
192 Berry SAA 0.00 0.00 154 2 8
193 Bethany President's 0.00 0.00 155 0 3
194 Brevard USA South At 0.00 0.00 156 0 4
195 Bridgewater State MASCAC 0.00 0.00 157 2 3
196 Bryn Athyn NEAC 0.00 0.00 158 0 1
197 Buffalo State SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 159 1 2
199 Castleton North Atlant 0.00 0.00 160 1 4
200 Cazenovia NEAC 0.00 0.00 161 0 1
201 Centenary CSAC 0.00 0.00 162 0 3
202 Centre SAA 0.00 0.00 163 3 5
204 Christopher Newpor Capital 0.00 0.00 164 3 4
205 Concordia-Wisconsi Midwest 0.00 0.00 165 0 3
206 Cortland SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 166 1 2
207 Curry Comm. Coast 0.00 0.00 167 1 3
209 Dean NECC 0.00 0.00 168 0 1
210 Delaware Valley Freedom 0.00 0.00 169 1 3
211 Elmhurst CCIW 0.00 0.00 170 0 4
212 Elmira Empire Eight 0.00 0.00 171 1 4
213 Elms NECC 0.00 0.00 172 0 2
214 Farmingdale State Skyline 0.00 0.00 173 2 3
215 FDU-Florham Freedom 0.00 0.00 174 2 3
217 Franklin Heartland 0.00 0.00 175 0 3
218 Gordon Comm. Coast 0.00 0.00 176 0 5
219 Hamilton NESCAC 0.00 0.00 177 0 2
220 Hartwick Empire Eight 0.00 0.00 178 1 2
221 Hilbert NEAC 0.00 0.00 179 0 2
222 Hiram North Coast 0.00 0.00 180 1 6
224 Hood Commonwealth 0.00 0.00 181 3 4
225 Huntingdon USA South At 0.00 0.00 182 3 4
226 Husson North Atlant 0.00 0.00 183 0 3
227 Illinois Tech Midwest 0.00 0.00 184 0 2
228 Immaculata CSAC 0.00 0.00 185 1 4
229 Johnson & Wales (C SCAC 0.00 0.00 186 1 3
230 Keene State Little East 0.00 0.00 187 1 2
231 Keystone CSAC 0.00 0.00 188 0 3
232 King's Freedom 0.00 0.00 189 1 4
233 Lancaster Bible NEAC 0.00 0.00 190 0 4
234 Lycoming Commonwealth 0.00 0.00 191 1 3
235 Lyndon State North Atlant 0.00 0.00 192 0 0
236 Maine Maritime North Atlant 0.00 0.00 193 0 2
237 Marian (WI) Midwest 0.00 0.00 194 0 3
238 McDaniel Centennial 0.00 0.00 195 1 3
239 MCLA MASCAC 0.00 0.00 196 0 0
240 Methodist USA South At 0.00 0.00 197 2 3
241 MIT NEWMAC 0.00 0.00 198 2 3
242 Mitchell NECC 0.00 0.00 199 0 2
243 Monmouth (IL) Midwest 0.00 0.00 200 1 2
244 Mount Aloysius 0.00 0.00 201 1 4
245 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 0.00 0.00 202 1 3
246 Mount Saint Vincen Skyline 0.00 0.00 203 1 2
247 Muhlenberg Centennial 0.00 0.00 204 0 1
248 Nazareth Empire Eight 0.00 0.00 205 2 4
249 Neumann CSAC 0.00 0.00 206 0 4
250 New Paltz SUNYAC 0.00 0.00 207 2 3
251 Nichols Comm. Coast 0.00 0.00 208 0 2
252 No. Carolina Wesle USA South At 0.00 0.00 209 1 6
254 Norwich Great Northe 0.00 0.00 210 0 4
255 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 0.00 0.00 211 2 3
256 Old Westbury Skyline 0.00 0.00 212 0 0
257 Olivet MIAA 0.00 0.00 213 0 0
258 Pacific (OR) Northwest 0.00 0.00 214 1 3
259 Penn State-Abingto NEAC 0.00 0.00 215 0 2
260 Randolph Old Dominion 0.00 0.00 216 1 3
262 Rhode Island Colle Little East 0.00 0.00 217 0 3
263 Rivier Great Northe 0.00 0.00 218 0 2
264 Roger Williams Comm. Coast 0.00 0.00 219 2 3
265 Rosemont CSAC 0.00 0.00 220 0 2
266 Rowan NJAC 0.00 0.00 221 2 3
267 Rutgers-Camden NJAC 0.00 0.00 222 0 2
268 Sage Empire Eight 0.00 0.00 223 0 3
269 Salem 0.00 0.00 224 1 7
270 Salem State MASCAC 0.00 0.00 225 1 3
271 Scranton Landmark 0.00 0.00 226 2 4
272 Sewanee SAA 0.00 0.00 227 4 5
273 Skidmore Liberty Leag 0.00 0.00 228 0 5
274 Southern Maine Little East 0.00 0.00 229 1 2
275 Southern Vermont NECC 0.00 0.00 230 0 0
276 St. Joseph's (NY) Skyline 0.00 0.00 231 0 3
277 St. Mary's (IN) 0.00 0.00 232 2 3
278 Susquehanna Landmark 0.00 0.00 233 3 4
279 Sweet Briar Old Dominion 0.00 0.00 234 1 7
280 Thiel President's 0.00 0.00 235 1 5
281 Thomas North Atlant 0.00 0.00 236 0 2
282 Thomas More Heartland 0.00 0.00 237 0 4
283 Trine MIAA 0.00 0.00 238 1 6
284 Ursinus Centennial 0.00 0.00 239 0 5
285 Virginia Wesleyan Old Dominion 0.00 0.00 240 1 6
286 Wartburg Midwest 0.00 0.00 241 0 2
287 Washington & Jeffe President's 0.00 0.00 242 3 4
288 Washington College Centennial 0.00 0.00 243 2 3
289 Wellesley NEWMAC 0.00 0.00 244 1 3
290 Wentworth Tech Comm. Coast 0.00 0.00 245 0 4
291 Western New Englan Comm. Coast 0.00 0.00 246 1 3
292 Whitman Northwest 0.00 0.00 247 0 4
294 Whitworth Northwest 0.00 0.00 248 1 2
295 Wilkes Freedom 0.00 0.00 249 2 5
POOL2
16 Fort Lewis Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.81 1 2 0
26 Colorado College Independent 0.00 0.77 2 3 2
27 Pomona-Pitzer SCIAC 0.00 0.77 3 7 0
65 Claremont-Mudd-Scr SCIAC 0.00 0.68 4 5 1
91 Occidental SCIAC 0.00 0.63 5 5 3
93 D'Youville Independent 0.00 0.63 6 2 1
107 Wisconsin-RiverFal Independent 0.00 0.59 7 3 1
125 Southwestern Independent 0.00 0.53 8 4 3
140 Frostburg State Mountain Eas 0.00 0.50 9 2 2
157 Montevallo Gulf South 0.00 0.45 10 4 4
160 Felician CACC North 0.00 0.44 11 1 1
198 California Luthera SCIAC 0.00 0.00 12 0 6
203 Chapman SCIAC 0.00 0.00 13 3 4
208 Dallas Independent 0.00 0.00 14 1 4
216 Franciscan Independent 0.00 0.00 15 0 4
223 Hollins Independent 0.00 0.00 16 0 2
253 Northwestern (MN) Independent 0.00 0.00 17 0 4
261 Redlands SCIAC 0.00 0.00 18 2 4
293 Whittier SCIAC 0.00 0.00 19 1 5