PROBABILITIES
The NCAA Selection Committee has criteria for selecting teams as at-large invitees. We have computerized these
criteria and provide a normalized list under the at-large column from 1.0 (greatest chance) to 0.0 (lowest chance).
However, we do not know how the committee weighs each criteria nor what other factors the committee takes into
account. Therefore we provide a list in order of teams the algorithm computes to have the best chances.
At-large Rating is an indication (proportional to probability) of a teams chances for an at-large selection.
Rank Team Name Conference
AQ % At-Large At-Large W - L
Rating Ranking
EAST
1 Le Moyne Northeast 10 0.00 1.00 1 4 0
5 Saint Anselm Northeast 10 0.00 0.90 2 4 0
7 Mercy East Coast 0.00 0.88 3 4 1
10 Adelphi Northeast 10 0.00 0.86 4 3 1
19 Assumption Northeast 10 0.00 0.79 5 3 0
20 Roberts Wesleyan East Coast 0.00 0.78 6 4 1
26 New Haven Northeast 10 0.00 0.74 7 2 0
31 Bentley Northeast 10 0.00 0.70 8 2 1
40 Bridgeport East Coast 0.00 0.60 9 5 1
42 S. New Hampshire Northeast 10 0.00 0.57 10 2 1
43 American Internati Northeast 10 0.00 0.57 11 3 1
47 Stonehill Northeast 10 0.00 0.52 12 2 2
48 NYIT East Coast 0.00 0.50 13 3 2
53 St. Thomas Aquinas East Coast 0.00 0.48 14 5 2
55 Pace Northeast 10 0.00 0.47 15 1 1
61 Franklin Pierce Northeast 10 0.00 0.40 16 2 2
65 Saint Michael's Northeast 10 0.00 0.05 17 0 0
89 Molloy East Coast 0.00 0.00 18 2 3
97 Saint Rose Northeast 10 0.00 0.00 19 2 3
100 Southern Connectic Northeast 10 0.00 0.00 20 2 3
104 University of DC East Coast 0.00 0.00 21 0 3
ATLANTIC
8 East Stroudsburg PSAC 0.00 0.88 1 4 1
17 West Chester PSAC 0.00 0.80 2 2 0
23 Mercyhurst PSAC 0.00 0.76 3 3 1
27 Bloomsburg PSAC 0.00 0.74 4 4 1
28 Lock Haven PSAC 0.00 0.73 5 3 2
35 Seton Hill PSAC 0.00 0.65 6 3 3
36 Gannon PSAC 0.00 0.64 7 4 2
37 Shippensburg PSAC 0.00 0.63 8 3 3
38 Millersville PSAC 0.00 0.60 9 3 2
45 Indiana (PA) PSAC 0.00 0.53 10 2 2
51 Edinboro PSAC 0.00 0.49 11 2 2
52 Nyack CACC North 0.00 0.49 12 1 1
57 Felician CACC North 0.00 0.44 13 1 1
68 Caldwell CACC North 0.00 0.00 14 0 4
70 Chestnut Hill CACC South 0.00 0.00 15 0 4
77 Dominican CACC North 0.00 0.00 16 0 4
81 Georgian Court CACC North 0.00 0.00 17 1 6
82 Holy Family CACC South 0.00 0.00 18 0 3
83 Kutztown PSAC 0.00 0.00 19 2 3
95 Post CACC North 0.00 0.00 20 1 6
99 Slippery Rock PSAC 0.00 0.00 21 2 3
102 Thomas Jefferson CACC South 0.00 0.00 22 0 4
111 Wilmington CACC South 0.00 0.00 23 1 6
SOUTH
4 Tampa Sunshine 0.00 0.94 1 6 1
6 Queens South Atlant 0.00 0.89 2 5 0
9 Florida Tech Sunshine 0.00 0.87 3 6 2
11 Rollins Sunshine 0.00 0.85 4 6 1
13 Belmont Abbey Carolinas 0.00 0.81 5 7 2
15 Mount Olive Carolinas 0.00 0.81 6 7 0
18 Lee Gulf South 0.00 0.79 7 6 2
21 Embry-Riddle 0.00 0.78 8 5 2
22 Florida Southern Sunshine 0.00 0.78 9 6 3
24 Limestone Carolinas 0.00 0.76 10 6 2
29 Lynn Sunshine 0.00 0.72 11 4 3
30 Saint Leo Sunshine 0.00 0.70 12 4 3
32 Lenoir-Rhyne South Atlant 0.00 0.70 13 4 2
39 Alabama-Huntsville Gulf South 0.00 0.60 14 5 2
46 Mars Hill South Atlant 0.00 0.53 15 4 4
56 Montevallo Gulf South 0.00 0.45 16 4 4
58 Tusculum South Atlant 0.00 0.42 17 3 3
62 Barton Carolinas 0.00 0.37 18 4 4
69 Catawba South Atlant 0.00 0.00 19 1 4
71 Chowan Carolinas 0.00 0.00 20 1 6
72 Coker South Atlant 0.00 0.00 21 2 3
74 Converse Carolinas 0.00 0.00 22 0 6
78 Emmanuel (GA) Carolinas 0.00 0.00 23 0 6
79 Erskine Carolinas 0.00 0.00 24 0 8
85 Lander Gulf South 0.00 0.00 25 4 5
86 Lees-McRae Carolinas 0.00 0.00 26 2 4
88 Lincoln Memorial South Atlant 0.00 0.00 27 2 3
90 Newberry South Atlant 0.00 0.00 28 4 5
91 North Greenville Carolinas 0.00 0.00 29 3 6
98 Shorter Gulf South 0.00 0.00 30 0 5
101 Southern Wesleyan Carolinas 0.00 0.00 31 2 4
112 Wingate South Atlant 0.00 0.00 32 3 5
113 Young Harris Gulf South 0.00 0.00 33 3 5
MIDWEST
2 Indianapolis Great Lakes 0.00 0.96 1 7 1
3 Lindenwood Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.95 2 9 1
12 Grand Valley State Great Lakes 0.00 0.84 3 3 1
14 Fort Lewis Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.81 4 2 0
16 Concordia-St. Paul Great Lakes 0.00 0.81 5 5 2
25 Davenport GLIAC 0.00 0.74 6 4 1
33 Colorado Mesa Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.67 7 2 1
41 McKendree Great Lakes 0.00 0.59 8 4 3
44 Regis (CO) Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.56 9 2 2
49 Maryville (MO) Great Lakes 0.00 0.50 10 3 2
54 Shepherd Mountain Eas 0.00 0.48 11 3 2
59 Alderson Broaddus Great Midwes 0.00 0.42 12 2 2
60 Rockhurst Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.40 13 4 4
63 Charleston Mountain Eas 0.00 0.35 14 2 2
66 Adams State Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.00 15 0 3
67 Ashland Great Lakes 0.00 0.00 16 2 4
73 Colo.-Colorado Spr Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.00 17 3 4
75 CSU-Pueblo Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.00 18 1 4
76 Davis & Elkins Great Midwes 0.00 0.00 19 1 3
80 Findlay Great Lakes 0.00 0.00 20 2 3
84 Lake Erie Great Midwes 0.00 0.00 21 0 0
87 Lewis Great Lakes 0.00 0.00 22 2 6
92 Northern Michigan Great Lakes 0.00 0.00 23 2 3
93 Notre Dame (OH) Mountain Eas 0.00 0.00 24 2 3
94 Oklahoma Baptist Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.00 25 0 5
96 Quincy 0.00 0.00 26 3 4
103 Tiffin Great Lakes 0.00 0.00 27 1 4
105 Upper Iowa Great Lakes 0.00 0.00 28 0 1
106 Ursuline Great Midwes 0.00 0.00 29 0 2
107 UVa-Wise Mountain Eas 0.00 0.00 30 2 5
108 Walsh Great Lakes 0.00 0.00 31 2 3
109 West Virginia Wesl Mountain Eas 0.00 0.00 32 0 4
110 Westminster Rocky Mounta 0.00 0.00 33 0 1