PROBABILITIES
The NCAA Selection Committee has criteria for selecting teams as at-large invitees. We have computerized these
criteria and provide a normalized list under the at-large column from 1.0 (greatest chance) to 0.0 (lowest chance).
However, we do not know how the committee weighs each criteria nor what other factors the committee takes into
account. Therefore we provide a list in order of teams the algorithm computes to have the best chances.
At-large Rating is an indication (proportional to probability) of a teams chances for an at-large selection.
Rank Team Name Conference
AQ % At-Large At-Large W - L
Rating Ranking
1 Loyola Patriot Leag 100.00 AQ 5 0
3 Southern Californi Pacific 12 100.00 AQ 6 0
6 James Madison Colonial 100.00 AQ 5 1
7 North Carolina Atlantic Coa 100.00 AQ 7 0
9 Florida American 100.00 AQ 6 2
10 Stony Brook America East 100.00 AQ 4 1
15 Northwestern Big Ten 100.00 AQ 4 3
29 Richmond Atlantic 10 100.00 AQ 7 0
37 Georgetown Big East 100.00 AQ 4 3
38 Princeton Ivy League 100.00 AQ 3 2
44 High Point Big South 100.00 AQ 1 4
48 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 100.00 AQ 3 1
54 Wagner Northeast 100.00 AQ 3 4
58 Mercer Southern 100.00 AQ 5 2
67 Fairfield Metro Atlant 100.00 AQ 2 5
2 Michigan Big Ten 0.00 0.96 1 5 1
4 Dartmouth Ivy League 0.00 0.95 2 5 0
5 Penn Ivy League 0.00 0.94 3 4 1
8 Notre Dame Atlantic Coa 0.00 0.92 4 6 0
11 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 0.00 0.89 5 4 1
12 Penn State Big Ten 0.00 0.89 6 5 2
13 Syracuse Atlantic Coa 0.00 0.86 7 7 1
14 Boston College Atlantic Coa 0.00 0.83 8 4 3
16 Johns Hopkins Big Ten 0.00 0.79 9 4 3
17 Virginia Atlantic Coa 0.00 0.79 10 5 3
18 Lehigh Patriot Leag 0.00 0.77 11 6 2
19 Maryland Big Ten 0.00 0.77 12 3 3
20 Brown Ivy League 0.00 0.77 13 4 3
21 Albany America East 0.00 0.76 14 3 2
22 San Diego State MPSF 0.00 0.76 15 3 2
23 Virginia Tech Atlantic Coa 0.00 0.76 16 7 3
24 Colorado Pacific 12 0.00 0.75 17 3 2
25 Louisville Atlantic Coa 0.00 0.73 18 5 4
26 Vanderbilt American 0.00 0.73 19 4 4
27 Denver Big East 0.00 0.72 20 7 1
28 Hofstra Colonial 0.00 0.69 21 4 3
30 George Mason Atlantic 10 0.00 0.68 22 4 3
31 Ohio State Big Ten 0.00 0.67 23 5 4
32 Army Patriot Leag 0.00 0.67 24 7 0
33 Monmouth Metro Atlant 0.00 0.66 25 6 2
34 Duke Atlantic Coa 0.00 0.65 26 6 3
35 Rutgers Big Ten 0.00 0.65 27 5 4
36 Yale Ivy League 0.00 0.65 28 3 2
39 Harvard Ivy League 0.00 0.61 29 3 3
40 Drexel Colonial 0.00 0.59 30 5 2
41 Connecticut American 0.00 0.58 31 5 2
42 Marquette Big East 0.00 0.58 32 6 4
43 Saint Joseph's Atlantic 10 0.00 0.58 33 4 3
45 Cornell Ivy League 0.00 0.56 34 4 2
46 Bryant Northeast 0.00 0.55 35 4 2
47 Arizona State Pacific 12 0.00 0.55 36 5 3
49 Boston University Patriot Leag 0.00 0.50 37 3 3
50 American Patriot Leag 0.00 0.50 38 7 0
51 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 0.00 0.50 39 6 1
52 Liberty Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.50 40 3 3
53 East Carolina American 0.00 0.48 41 5 3
55 UC Davis MPSF 0.00 0.47 42 3 3
56 Elon Colonial 0.00 0.42 43 3 2
57 Robert Morris Northeast 0.00 0.42 44 5 2
59 Lafayette Patriot Leag 0.00 0.39 45 4 3
60 Gardner-Webb Big South 0.00 0.36 46 6 3
61 Duquesne Atlantic 10 0.00 0.35 47 3 3
62 Holy Cross Patriot Leag 0.00 0.33 48 5 3
63 Temple American 0.00 0.33 49 5 4
64 Vermont America East 0.00 0.33 50 4 4
65 Butler Big East 0.00 0.31 51 4 2
66 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 0.00 0.28 52 5 2
68 Saint Francis Northeast 0.00 0.24 53 4 3
69 Akron Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 54 0 7
70 Binghamton America East 0.00 0.00 55 3 5
71 Bucknell Patriot Leag 0.00 0.00 56 3 5
72 California Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 57 2 5
73 Campbell Big South 0.00 0.00 58 2 7
74 Canisius Metro Atlant 0.00 0.00 59 1 5
75 Central Connecticu Northeast 0.00 0.00 60 0 6
76 Central Michigan Southern 0.00 0.00 61 2 3
77 Cincinnati American 0.00 0.00 62 3 4
78 Coastal Carolina Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 63 2 3
79 Colgate Patriot Leag 0.00 0.00 64 3 4
80 Columbia Ivy League 0.00 0.00 65 0 7
81 Davidson Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 66 2 4
82 Delaware Colonial 0.00 0.00 67 2 3
83 Delaware State Southern 0.00 0.00 68 1 5
84 Detroit Mercy Southern 0.00 0.00 69 1 7
85 Fresno State MPSF 0.00 0.00 70 2 5
86 Furman Southern 0.00 0.00 71 3 4
87 George Washington Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 72 0 7
88 Hartford America East 0.00 0.00 73 0 7
89 Howard Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 74 0 5
90 Iona Metro Atlant 0.00 0.00 75 3 4
91 Kennesaw State Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 76 3 4
92 Kent State Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 77 0 6
93 La Salle Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 78 3 4
94 Long Island Northeast 0.00 0.00 79 1 5
95 Longwood Big South 0.00 0.00 80 3 5
96 Manhattan Metro Atlant 0.00 0.00 81 3 4
97 Marist Metro Atlant 0.00 0.00 82 2 4
98 Massachusetts-Lowe America East 0.00 0.00 83 2 5
99 Merrimack Northeast 0.00 0.00 84 1 6
100 Navy Patriot Leag 0.00 0.00 85 2 4
101 New Hampshire America East 0.00 0.00 86 1 4
102 Niagara Metro Atlant 0.00 0.00 87 3 4
103 Old Dominion Big East 0.00 0.00 88 3 6
104 Oregon Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 89 2 5
105 Presbyterian Big South 0.00 0.00 90 2 5
106 Quinnipiac Metro Atlant 0.00 0.00 91 3 4
107 Radford Big South 0.00 0.00 92 2 7
108 Sacred Heart Northeast 0.00 0.00 93 1 5
109 Siena Metro Atlant 0.00 0.00 94 3 4
110 Stanford Pacific 12 0.00 0.00 95 3 4
111 Stetson Atlantic Sun 0.00 0.00 96 1 4
112 Towson Colonial 0.00 0.00 97 2 4
113 UMBC America East 0.00 0.00 98 2 4
114 Villanova Big East 0.00 0.00 99 3 5
115 Virginia Commonwea Atlantic 10 0.00 0.00 100 3 4
116 William & Mary Colonial 0.00 0.00 101 2 5
117 Winthrop Big South 0.00 0.00 102 0 7
118 Wofford Southern 0.00 0.00 103 0 6