Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities
Complete List of At-Large predictions below.
The past years predictions were 45 out of 55 or 86%.
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Women s Division II Championship Tournament
The format for the NCAA Division II Women s Lacrosse Championship is a sixteen-team, single-elimination tournament.
Teams must play a minimum of 10 games in-region and have at least a .500 record, and regular-season games tied after
regulation must be decided in overtime. Each region (North and South) will have six teams, and teams will be paired
within region. The prediction is based on the rankings of region record, division record, record against teams
with a 50% winning record and sos in-region. See NCAA for more info.
Primary Factors for Selecting Teams
[1] In-region Division II won-lost results
[2] Overall division II won-lost results
[3] Strength of schedule in-region
[-] Division II Head-to-head competition
[-] Results vs. common opponents
[4] Results vs. teams with records above .500
[-] Performance indicator (not defined by NCAA)
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?
EAST
Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T
PROB REG D2 >50%
[1] [2] [4] [3]
1 Le Moyne 74.10 1 2 0 1 11 3 0 4 0 0
2 Saint Anselm 59.10 18 65 0 22 5 9 0 4 0 0
3 Mercy 53.30 7 25 0 28 5 4 0 4 1 0
4 Adelphi 48.90 5 47 0 7 9 5 0 3 1 0
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5 Assumption 29.30 3 4 0 25 12 4 0 3 0 0
6 Bentley 23.90 10 57 0 8 8 8 0 2 1 0
7 Pace 20.20 6 32 0 24 9 7 0 1 1 0
8 New Haven 19.90 13 65 0 13 6 8 0 2 0 0
9 Stonehill 16.20 9 57 0 10 8 7 0 2 2 0
10 Roberts Wesleyan 13.90 16 90 0 35 3 5 0 4 1 0
11 S. New Hampshire 9.00 4 10 0 15 10 5 0 2 1 0
12 American Internation 8.10 19 92 0 26 4 9 0 3 1 0
13 Franklin Pierce 3.10 8 40 0 12 7 6 0 2 2 0
14 Bridgeport 2.20 2 1 0 60 7 2 0 5 1 0
15 Molloy 1.90 17 92 0 32 4 7 0 2 3 0
16 Southern Connecticut 1.90 13 51 0 27 6 8 0 2 3 0
17 Saint Rose 1.60 20 92 0 21 4 11 0 2 3 0
18 NYIT 1.30 21 63 0 65 1 8 0 3 2 0
19 St. Thomas Aquinas 0.30 12 25 0 86 4 5 0 5 2 0
20 University of DC 0.00 13 87 0 105 3 4 0 0 3 0
ATLANTIC
Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T
PROB REG D2 >50%
[1] [2] [4] [3]
1 West Chester 76.10 9 71 0 2 6 5 0 2 0 0
2 East Stroudsburg 75.70 10 29 0 5 7 6 0 4 1 0
3 Mercyhurst 50.20 1 4 0 58 10 2 0 3 1 0
4 Bloomsburg 49.10 3 32 0 39 9 5 0 4 1 0
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5 Lock Haven 34.50 12 44 0 40 8 8 0 3 2 0
6 Millersville 29.60 8 51 0 23 8 6 0 3 2 0
7 Seton Hill 24.00 17 101 0 18 5 10 0 3 3 0
8 Shippensburg 15.50 3 12 0 50 9 5 0 3 3 0
9 Kutztown 13.80 15 72 0 14 6 7 0 2 3 0
10 Gannon 10.60 15 29 0 71 6 7 0 4 2 0
11 Edinboro 9.00 21 101 0 56 3 9 0 2 2 0
12 Indiana (PA) 6.80 12 51 0 37 7 7 0 2 2 0
13 Slippery Rock 5.10 7 17 0 33 8 5 0 2 3 0
14 Caldwell 0.00 5 72 0 82 7 4 0 0 4 0
15 Chestnut Hill 0.00 2 48 0 101 7 3 0 0 4 0
16 Dominican 0.00 17 103 0 99 3 6 0 0 4 0
17 Felician 0.00 22 103 0 107 2 7 0 1 1 0
18 Georgian Court 0.00 12 72 0 68 8 8 0 1 6 0
19 Holy Family 0.00 17 95 0 95 3 6 0 0 3 0
20 Nyack 0.00 23 90 0 112 1 8 0 1 1 0
21 Post 0.00 17 108 0 78 3 6 0 1 6 0
22 Thomas Jefferson 0.00 10 57 0 100 7 6 0 0 4 0
23 Wilmington 0.00 5 56 0 81 7 4 0 1 6 0
SOUTH
Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T
PROB REG D2 >50%
[1] [2] [4] [3]
1 Tampa 84.70 1 8 0 11 9 3 0 6 1 0
2 Rollins 72.30 13 51 0 19 8 6 0 6 1 0
3 Queens 64.00 10 24 0 30 9 6 0 5 0 0
4 Florida Southern 57.50 7 12 0 3 6 3 0 6 3 0
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5 Embry-Riddle 43.50 11 32 0 38 7 5 0 5 2 0
6 Florida Tech 31.30 16 44 0 20 5 4 0 6 2 0
7 Saint Leo 23.20 27 78 0 42 4 7 0 4 3 0
8 Limestone 7.30 5 11 0 49 12 5 0 6 2 0
9 Lenoir-Rhyne 5.10 15 44 0 55 9 7 0 4 2 0
10 Alabama-Huntsville 2.90 18 25 0 48 4 4 0 5 2 0
11 Lee 1.80 2 17 0 77 10 4 0 6 2 0
12 Mount Olive 1.80 8 16 0 73 10 6 0 7 0 0
13 Belmont Abbey 1.70 6 9 0 47 11 5 0 7 2 0
14 Lynn 1.60 2 40 0 88 5 2 0 4 3 0
15 Lincoln Memorial 0.40 9 48 0 66 8 5 0 2 3 0
16 Wingate 0.30 17 32 0 57 7 6 0 3 5 0
17 North Greenville 0.20 18 65 0 41 8 8 0 3 6 0
18 Shorter 0.20 2 87 0 91 5 2 0 0 5 0
19 Young Harris 0.20 18 51 0 34 8 8 0 3 5 0
20 Barton 0.00 11 32 0 94 7 5 0 4 4 0
21 Catawba 0.00 22 65 0 52 7 9 0 1 4 0
22 Chowan 0.00 32 111 0 102 2 10 0 1 6 0
23 Coker 0.00 27 76 0 96 4 7 0 2 3 0
24 Converse 0.00 26 87 0 75 5 8 0 0 6 0
25 Emmanuel (GA) 0.00 31 110 0 59 3 14 0 0 6 0
26 Erskine 0.00 30 98 0 83 3 11 0 0 8 0
27 Lander 0.00 29 78 0 64 5 10 0 4 5 0
28 Lees-McRae 0.00 18 57 0 109 7 7 0 2 4 0
29 Mars Hill 0.00 13 40 0 62 8 6 0 4 4 0
30 Montevallo 0.00 33 95 0 108 1 8 0 4 4 0
31 Newberry 0.00 22 78 0 69 7 9 0 4 5 0
32 Southern Wesleyan 0.00 24 78 0 89 6 8 0 2 4 0
33 Tusculum 0.00 24 78 0 76 6 8 0 3 3 0
MIDWEST
Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T
PROB REG D2 >50%
[1] [2] [4] [3]
1 Lindenwood 98.70 6 4 0 4 10 4 0 9 1 0
2 Indianapolis 92.20 8 17 0 9 8 4 0 7 1 0
3 Concordia-St. Paul 63.80 8 17 0 6 10 5 0 5 2 0
4 Grand Valley State 56.30 22 72 0 36 7 10 0 3 1 0
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5 Davenport 24.60 7 7 0 63 12 5 0 4 1 0
6 Regis (CO) 12.70 10 37 0 46 8 5 0 2 2 0
7 McKendree 12.20 25 84 0 51 5 9 0 4 3 0
8 Findlay 10.00 18 65 0 43 7 8 0 2 3 0
9 Walsh 6.70 3 17 0 44 11 4 0 2 3 0
10 Northern Michigan 5.30 16 48 0 53 8 7 0 2 3 0
11 Shepherd 2.80 33 65 0 16 0 1 0 3 2 0
12 Tiffin 2.70 28 106 0 45 4 11 0 1 4 0
13 Lake Erie 2.60 10 12 0 54 8 5 0 0 0 0
14 Maryville (MO) 1.60 4 3 0 103 8 3 0 3 2 0
15 Upper Iowa 1.50 26 100 0 84 4 8 0 0 1 0
16 UVa-Wise 1.50 1 98 0 61 1 0 0 2 5 0
17 Lewis 1.10 19 86 0 17 6 7 0 2 6 0
18 Rockhurst 1.10 2 17 0 79 11 3 0 4 4 0
19 Ashland 0.70 22 78 0 70 7 10 0 2 4 0
20 Colorado Mesa 0.70 15 39 0 74 8 6 0 2 1 0
21 Fort Lewis 0.50 17 28 0 92 5 5 0 2 0 0
22 Westminster 0.20 24 77 0 90 4 7 0 0 1 0
23 Adams State 0.10 14 57 0 85 7 5 0 0 3 0
24 Alderson Broaddus 0.10 12 37 0 80 9 6 0 2 2 0
25 CSU-Pueblo 0.10 21 84 0 67 6 8 0 1 4 0
26 Notre Dame (OH) 0.10 12 40 0 87 6 4 0 2 3 0
27 Quincy 0.10 27 95 0 106 3 7 0 3 4 0
28 Charleston 0.00 4 12 0 110 8 3 0 2 2 0
29 Colo.-Colorado Sprin 0.00 20 63 0 72 8 10 0 3 4 0
30 Davis & Elkins 0.00 29 109 0 111 2 6 0 1 3 0
31 Oklahoma Baptist 0.00 32 112 0 93 1 13 0 0 5 0
32 Ursuline 0.00 30 107 0 98 3 10 0 0 2 0
33 West Virginia Wesley 0.00 31 103 0 97 1 7 0 0 4 0
