Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 Complete List of At-Large predictions below.
 The past years predictions were 45 out of 55 or 86%.
                         

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division II Championship Tournament

The format for the NCAA Division II Women s Lacrosse Championship is a sixteen-team, single-elimination tournament. Teams must play a minimum of 10 games in-region and have at least a .500 record, and regular-season games tied after regulation must be decided in overtime. Each region (North and South) will have six teams, and teams will be paired within region. The prediction is based on the rankings of region record, division record, record against teams with a 50% winning record and sos in-region. See NCAA for more info. Primary Factors for Selecting Teams [1] In-region Division II won-lost results [2] Overall division II won-lost results [3] Strength of schedule in-region [-] Division II Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Results vs. teams with records above .500 [-] Performance indicator (not defined by NCAA) Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. EAST Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Le Moyne 100.00 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 4 0 0 2 Saint Anselm 55.17 1 1 1 9 1 0 0 4 0 0 3 Assumption 42.29 1 1 1 21 3 0 0 3 0 0 4 Mercy 33.80 7 14 12 3 2 1 0 4 1 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Roberts Wesleyan 33.48 1 14 12 11 1 0 0 4 1 0 6 Adelphi 30.47 1 20 18 6 2 0 0 3 1 0 7 New Haven 23.71 1 1 1 71 1 0 0 2 0 0 8 Bentley 21.62 7 31 24 15 2 1 0 2 1 0 9 Stonehill 18.18 7 46 24 17 2 1 0 2 2 0 10 S. New Hampshire 17.75 11 31 24 33 1 1 0 2 1 0 11 Pace 12.47 11 46 55 25 1 1 0 1 1 0 12 NYIT 11.06 16 38 39 58 0 2 0 3 2 0 13 American Internation 0.00 11 20 55 72 1 1 0 3 1 0 14 Bridgeport 0.00 7 13 55 98 2 1 0 5 1 0 15 Southern Connecticut 0.00 16 68 55 27 0 3 0 2 3 0 16 Saint Michael's 0.00 16 95 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 17 St. Thomas Aquinas 0.00 14 27 55 92 1 2 0 5 2 0 18 Molloy 0.00 16 68 55 48 0 3 0 2 3 0 19 Franklin Pierce 0.00 16 46 55 94 0 1 0 2 2 0 20 Saint Rose 0.00 15 68 55 96 1 3 0 2 3 0 21 University of DC 0.00 16 95 55 95 0 2 0 0 3 0 ATLANTIC Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 West Chester 80.57 1 1 1 22 2 0 0 2 0 0 2 East Stroudsburg 63.32 1 14 12 13 3 0 0 4 1 0 3 Bloomsburg 37.97 5 14 18 55 3 1 0 4 1 0 4 Lock Haven 33.62 7 38 24 32 3 2 0 3 2 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Gannon 31.25 12 31 24 43 0 2 0 4 2 0 6 Seton Hill 27.82 5 46 37 34 3 1 0 3 3 0 7 Shippensburg 26.55 7 46 37 37 3 2 0 3 3 0 8 Mercyhurst 25.96 1 20 55 60 1 0 0 3 1 0 9 Millersville 24.46 7 38 39 54 3 2 0 3 2 0 10 Edinboro 17.06 12 46 55 61 0 0 0 2 2 0 11 Indiana (PA) 16.96 10 46 39 80 1 2 0 2 2 0 12 Georgian Court 14.46 11 91 55 24 1 6 0 1 6 0 13 Kutztown 0.00 1 68 55 64 2 0 0 2 3 0 14 Slippery Rock 0.00 12 68 55 51 0 2 0 2 3 0 15 Wilmington 0.00 12 91 54 36 0 2 0 1 6 0 16 Holy Family 0.00 12 95 55 35 0 0 0 0 3 0 17 Thomas Jefferson 0.00 12 95 55 39 0 2 0 0 4 0 18 Nyack 0.00 12 46 55 100 0 0 0 1 1 0 19 Felician 0.00 12 46 55 107 0 0 0 1 1 0 20 Caldwell 0.00 12 95 55 65 0 1 0 0 4 0 21 Dominican 0.00 12 95 55 66 0 0 0 0 4 0 22 Post 0.00 12 91 55 73 0 0 0 1 6 0 23 Chestnut Hill 0.00 12 95 55 78 0 0 0 0 4 0 SOUTH Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Queens 69.91 1 1 1 14 5 0 0 5 0 0 2 Tampa 53.28 1 11 11 8 5 0 0 6 1 0 3 Rollins 37.63 1 11 12 38 5 0 0 6 1 0 4 Florida Southern 33.31 11 31 22 5 2 1 0 6 3 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Mount Olive 31.28 1 1 1 81 6 0 0 7 0 0 6 Saint Leo 30.08 11 43 22 2 2 1 0 4 3 0 7 Florida Tech 28.45 1 20 24 46 2 0 0 6 2 0 8 Belmont Abbey 25.80 9 19 20 53 6 2 0 7 2 0 9 Lee 24.59 1 20 24 63 5 0 0 6 2 0 10 Lenoir-Rhyne 23.45 13 31 39 26 3 2 0 4 2 0 11 Embry-Riddle 21.49 8 27 55 31 4 1 0 5 2 0 12 Alabama-Huntsville 20.73 29 27 24 41 0 2 0 5 2 0 13 Limestone 0.00 9 20 39 62 6 2 0 6 2 0 14 Lynn 0.00 1 43 39 49 1 0 0 4 3 0 15 Lincoln Memorial 0.00 15 68 24 28 2 2 0 2 3 0 16 Coker 0.00 21 68 55 16 1 2 0 2 3 0 17 Wingate 0.00 21 79 55 19 2 4 0 3 5 0 18 Montevallo 0.00 21 46 55 59 1 2 0 4 4 0 19 Mars Hill 0.00 14 46 55 76 4 3 0 4 4 0 20 Barton 0.00 19 46 39 99 2 3 0 4 4 0 21 Young Harris 0.00 25 79 53 40 2 5 0 3 5 0 22 North Greenville 0.00 20 81 55 52 3 5 0 3 6 0 23 Newberry 0.00 18 64 55 77 4 5 0 4 5 0 24 Tusculum 0.00 15 46 55 106 2 2 0 3 3 0 25 Lander 0.00 25 64 55 79 2 5 0 4 5 0 26 Lees-McRae 0.00 21 81 55 91 2 4 0 2 4 0 27 Converse 0.00 29 95 55 68 0 6 0 0 6 0 28 Southern Wesleyan 0.00 15 81 55 105 2 2 0 2 4 0 29 Emmanuel (GA) 0.00 29 95 55 75 0 6 0 0 6 0 30 Catawba 0.00 27 88 55 86 1 4 0 1 4 0 31 Chowan 0.00 27 91 55 87 1 4 0 1 6 0 32 Erskine 0.00 29 95 55 88 0 8 0 0 8 0 33 Shorter 0.00 29 95 55 112 0 0 0 0 5 0 MIDWEST Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T PROB REG D2 >50% [1] [2] [4] [3] 1 Lindenwood 44.96 4 9 10 7 6 1 0 9 1 0 2 Indianapolis 43.41 1 10 12 10 4 0 0 7 1 0 3 Grand Valley State 37.04 7 20 12 4 3 1 0 3 1 0 4 Concordia-St. Paul 26.81 5 27 20 23 4 1 0 5 2 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5 Regis (CO) 24.33 1 46 24 12 1 0 0 2 2 0 6 Colorado Mesa 22.63 8 31 24 30 2 1 0 2 1 0 7 Davenport 17.97 5 14 55 50 4 1 0 4 1 0 8 Findlay 15.79 16 68 24 18 1 2 0 2 3 0 9 McKendree 15.35 12 43 24 56 3 3 0 4 3 0 10 Walsh 12.44 8 68 49 29 2 1 0 2 3 0 11 Shepherd 12.30 24 38 39 57 0 1 0 3 2 0 12 Colo.-Colorado Sprin 11.96 16 66 55 20 2 4 0 3 4 0 13 Charleston 11.29 16 46 1 104 1 2 0 2 2 0 14 Alderson Broaddus 10.49 8 46 39 83 2 1 0 2 2 0 15 Fort Lewis 9.74 24 1 55 109 0 0 0 2 0 0 16 UVa-Wise 9.51 1 85 51 42 1 0 0 2 5 0 17 Maryville (MO) 9.43 12 38 55 82 2 2 0 3 2 0 18 Rockhurst 8.18 8 46 55 90 4 2 0 4 4 0 19 Ashland 7.20 16 81 1 103 2 4 0 2 4 0 20 Tiffin 6.90 16 88 55 44 1 2 0 1 4 0 21 Northern Michigan 6.83 15 68 55 70 2 3 0 2 3 0 22 Quincy 6.39 12 66 39 97 2 2 0 3 4 0 23 CSU-Pueblo 6.18 22 88 55 45 1 3 0 1 4 0 24 Notre Dame (OH) 4.15 16 68 55 101 1 2 0 2 3 0 25 Westminster 3.54 24 95 55 67 0 1 0 0 1 0 26 West Virginia Wesley 3.39 24 95 55 69 0 2 0 0 4 0 27 Davis & Elkins 3.07 24 86 55 84 0 0 0 1 3 0 28 Lewis 2.88 22 86 51 93 1 3 0 2 6 0 29 Oklahoma Baptist 2.22 24 95 55 85 0 4 0 0 5 0 30 Ursuline 1.94 24 95 55 89 0 1 0 0 2 0 31 Upper Iowa 1.05 24 95 55 102 0 1 0 0 1 0 32 Adams State 0.65 24 95 55 108 0 1 0 0 3 0 33 Lake Erie 0.00 24 95 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0