Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities
Complete List of At-Large predictions below.
The past years predictions were 45 out of 55 or 86%.
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Women s Division II Championship Tournament
The format for the NCAA Division II Women s Lacrosse Championship is a sixteen-team, single-elimination tournament.
Teams must play a minimum of 10 games in-region and have at least a .500 record, and regular-season games tied after
regulation must be decided in overtime. Each region (North and South) will have six teams, and teams will be paired
within region. The prediction is based on the rankings of region record, division record, record against teams
with a 50% winning record and sos in-region. See NCAA for more info.
Primary Factors for Selecting Teams
[1] In-region Division II won-lost results
[2] Overall division II won-lost results
[3] Strength of schedule in-region
[-] Division II Head-to-head competition
[-] Results vs. common opponents
[4] Results vs. teams with records above .500
[-] Performance indicator (not defined by NCAA)
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?
Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability
EAST
Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T
PROB REG D2 >50%
[1] [2] [4] [3]
1 Adelphi 100.00 1 20 0 14 2 0 0 3 1 0
2 Le Moyne 100.00 1 1 0 6 2 0 0 4 0 0
3 Mercy 100.00 7 14 0 7 2 1 0 4 1 0
4 Saint Anselm 100.00 1 1 0 39 1 0 0 4 0 0
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5 American Internation 0.00 11 20 0 95 1 1 0 3 1 0
6 Assumption 0.00 1 1 0 77 3 0 0 3 0 0
7 Bentley 0.00 7 31 0 37 2 1 0 2 1 0
8 Bridgeport 0.00 7 13 0 105 2 1 0 5 1 0
9 Franklin Pierce 0.00 16 46 0 90 0 1 0 2 2 0
10 Molloy 0.00 16 68 0 51 0 3 0 2 3 0
11 New Haven 0.00 1 1 0 93 1 0 0 2 0 0
12 NYIT 0.00 16 38 0 70 0 2 0 3 2 0
13 Pace 0.00 11 46 0 74 1 1 0 1 1 0
14 Roberts Wesleyan 0.00 1 14 0 53 1 0 0 4 1 0
15 S. New Hampshire 0.00 11 31 0 72 1 1 0 2 1 0
16 Saint Rose 0.00 15 68 0 87 1 3 0 2 3 0
17 Southern Connecticut 0.00 16 68 0 22 0 3 0 2 3 0
18 St. Thomas Aquinas 0.00 14 27 0 103 1 2 0 5 2 0
19 Stonehill 0.00 7 46 0 66 2 1 0 2 2 0
20 University of DC 0.00 16 95 0 92 0 2 0 0 3 0
ATLANTIC
Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T
PROB REG D2 >50%
[1] [2] [4] [3]
1 Bloomsburg 100.00 5 14 0 60 3 1 0 4 1 0
2 East Stroudsburg 100.00 1 14 0 21 3 0 0 4 1 0
3 Mercyhurst 100.00 1 20 0 48 1 0 0 3 1 0
4 West Chester 100.00 1 1 0 73 2 0 0 2 0 0
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5 Caldwell 0.00 12 95 0 102 0 1 0 0 4 0
6 Chestnut Hill 0.00 12 95 0 106 0 0 0 0 4 0
7 Dominican 0.00 12 95 0 86 0 0 0 0 4 0
8 Edinboro 0.00 12 46 0 67 0 0 0 2 2 0
9 Felician 0.00 12 46 0 85 0 0 0 1 1 0
10 Gannon 0.00 12 31 0 46 0 2 0 4 2 0
11 Georgian Court 0.00 11 91 0 12 1 6 0 1 6 0
12 Holy Family 0.00 12 95 0 31 0 0 0 0 3 0
13 Indiana (PA) 0.00 10 46 0 56 1 2 0 2 2 0
14 Kutztown 0.00 1 68 0 41 2 0 0 2 3 0
15 Lock Haven 0.00 7 38 0 11 3 2 0 3 2 0
16 Millersville 0.00 7 38 0 54 3 2 0 3 2 0
17 Nyack 0.00 12 46 0 68 0 0 0 1 1 0
18 Post 0.00 12 91 0 76 0 0 0 1 6 0
19 Seton Hill 0.00 5 46 0 27 3 1 0 3 3 0
20 Shippensburg 0.00 7 46 0 29 3 2 0 3 3 0
21 Slippery Rock 0.00 12 68 0 45 0 2 0 2 3 0
22 Thomas Jefferson 0.00 12 95 0 49 0 2 0 0 4 0
23 Wilmington 0.00 12 91 0 34 0 2 0 1 6 0
SOUTH
Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T
PROB REG D2 >50%
[1] [2] [4] [3]
1 Florida Tech 100.00 1 20 0 13 2 0 0 6 2 0
2 Queens 100.00 1 1 0 42 5 0 0 5 0 0
3 Rollins 100.00 1 11 0 36 5 0 0 6 1 0
4 Tampa 100.00 1 11 0 8 5 0 0 6 1 0
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5 Alabama-Huntsville 0.00 29 27 0 33 0 2 0 5 2 0
6 Barton 0.00 19 46 0 94 2 3 0 4 4 0
7 Belmont Abbey 0.00 9 19 0 17 6 2 0 7 2 0
8 Catawba 0.00 27 88 0 80 1 4 0 1 4 0
9 Chowan 0.00 27 91 0 96 1 4 0 1 6 0
10 Coker 0.00 21 68 0 88 1 2 0 2 3 0
11 Converse 0.00 29 95 0 65 0 6 0 0 6 0
12 Embry-Riddle 0.00 8 27 0 15 4 1 0 5 2 0
13 Emmanuel (GA) 0.00 29 95 0 82 0 6 0 0 6 0
14 Erskine 0.00 29 95 0 78 0 8 0 0 8 0
15 Florida Southern 0.00 11 31 0 2 2 1 0 6 3 0
16 Lander 0.00 25 64 0 32 2 5 0 4 5 0
17 Lee 0.00 1 20 0 38 5 0 0 6 2 0
18 Lees-McRae 0.00 21 81 0 75 2 4 0 2 4 0
19 Lenoir-Rhyne 0.00 13 31 0 25 3 2 0 4 2 0
20 Limestone 0.00 9 20 0 35 6 2 0 6 2 0
21 Lincoln Memorial 0.00 15 68 0 28 2 2 0 2 3 0
22 Lynn 0.00 1 43 0 18 1 0 0 4 3 0
23 Mars Hill 0.00 14 46 0 50 4 3 0 4 4 0
24 Montevallo 0.00 21 46 0 62 1 2 0 4 4 0
25 Mount Olive 0.00 1 1 0 69 6 0 0 7 0 0
26 Newberry 0.00 18 64 0 52 4 5 0 4 5 0
27 North Greenville 0.00 20 81 0 16 3 5 0 3 6 0
28 Saint Leo 0.00 11 43 0 4 2 1 0 4 3 0
29 Shorter 0.00 29 95 0 30 0 0 0 0 5 0
30 Southern Wesleyan 0.00 15 81 0 108 2 2 0 2 4 0
31 Tusculum 0.00 15 46 0 84 2 2 0 3 3 0
32 Wingate 0.00 21 79 0 5 2 4 0 3 5 0
33 Young Harris 0.00 25 79 0 19 2 5 0 3 5 0
MIDWEST
Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T
PROB REG D2 >50%
[1] [2] [4] [3]
1 Fort Lewis 100.00 24 1 0 23 0 0 0 2 0 0
2 Grand Valley State 100.00 7 20 0 9 3 1 0 3 1 0
3 Indianapolis 100.00 1 10 0 3 4 0 0 7 1 0
4 Lindenwood 100.00 4 9 0 1 6 1 0 9 1 0
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5 Adams State 0.00 24 95 0 24 0 1 0 0 3 0
6 Alderson Broaddus 0.00 8 46 0 100 2 1 0 2 2 0
7 Ashland 0.00 16 81 0 110 2 4 0 2 4 0
8 Charleston 0.00 16 46 0 107 1 2 0 2 2 0
9 Colo.-Colorado Sprin 0.00 16 66 0 20 2 4 0 3 4 0
10 Colorado Mesa 0.00 8 31 0 43 2 1 0 2 1 0
11 Concordia-St. Paul 0.00 5 27 0 10 4 1 0 5 2 0
12 CSU-Pueblo 0.00 22 88 0 58 1 3 0 1 4 0
13 Davenport 0.00 5 14 0 59 4 1 0 4 1 0
14 Davis & Elkins 0.00 24 86 0 99 0 0 0 1 3 0
15 Findlay 0.00 16 68 0 26 1 2 0 2 3 0
16 Lake Erie 0.00 24 95 0 111 0 0 0 0 0 0
17 Lewis 0.00 22 86 0 61 1 3 0 2 6 0
18 Maryville (MO) 0.00 12 38 0 79 2 2 0 3 2 0
19 McKendree 0.00 12 43 0 40 3 3 0 4 3 0
20 Northern Michigan 0.00 15 68 0 81 2 3 0 2 3 0
21 Notre Dame (OH) 0.00 16 68 0 71 1 2 0 2 3 0
22 Oklahoma Baptist 0.00 24 95 0 97 0 4 0 0 5 0
23 Quincy 0.00 12 66 0 109 2 2 0 3 4 0
24 Regis (CO) 0.00 1 46 0 64 1 0 0 2 2 0
25 Rockhurst 0.00 8 46 0 104 4 2 0 4 4 0
26 Shepherd 0.00 24 38 0 63 0 1 0 3 2 0
27 Tiffin 0.00 16 88 0 57 1 2 0 1 4 0
28 Upper Iowa 0.00 24 95 0 98 0 1 0 0 1 0
29 Ursuline 0.00 24 95 0 91 0 1 0 0 2 0
30 UVa-Wise 0.00 1 85 0 47 1 0 0 2 5 0
31 Walsh 0.00 8 68 0 44 2 1 0 2 3 0
32 West Virginia Wesley 0.00 24 95 0 101 0 2 0 0 4 0
33 Westminster 0.00 24 95 0 83 0 1 0 0 1 0