Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.
                         

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division I Championship Tournament

The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large). Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.
 RNK TEAMNAME              TOURN    AUTO  AT-LARGE     RANK
                            SEL     QUAL    SEL     RPI QW SOS  RPI+QW+SOS/2    W  L
                           PROB     PROB   PROB                     SUM
                                                    [3] [4] [2]
 
   1 Dartmouth            100.00    15.10  100.00    4   5  17     17.50        5  0
   2 Florida              100.00    15.70  100.00   10   6   7     19.50        6  2
   3 James Madison        100.00    16.70  100.00    7  11   5     20.50        5  1
   4 Loyola               100.00    10.40  100.00    1   1   1      2.50        5  0
   5 Michigan             100.00    14.00  100.00    2  13   2     16.00        5  1
   6 North Carolina       100.00    22.50  100.00    5   2  20     17.00        7  0
   7 Notre Dame           100.00    22.40  100.00    8   3  23     22.50        7  0
   8 Penn                 100.00    15.30  100.00    6  14   4     22.00        4  1
   9 Southern California  100.00    22.50  100.00    3   4  16     15.00        6  0
  10 Stony Brook          100.00    12.20  100.00    9  15  12     30.00        4  1
  11 Massachusetts         95.87     7.80   95.52   11  12  15     30.50        4  1
  12 Penn State            93.46    14.60   92.34   12  17  10     34.00        5  2
  13 Syracuse              88.47    14.00   86.60   14   8  26     35.00        7  1
  14 Boston College        79.40     7.60   77.71   13  20   3     34.50        4  3
  15 Northwestern          73.40    12.20   69.71   15  25  13     46.50        4  3
  16 Johns Hopkins         73.20    14.90   68.51   16  35  14     58.00        4  3
  17 Virginia              70.65     5.00   69.10   18  45  22     74.00        5  3
  18 Maryland              69.64    14.40   64.54   17  29   6     49.00        3  3
  19 Albany                67.98    13.60   62.94   23  23  24     58.00        3  2
  20 Colorado              67.76    18.60   60.39   25  21  27     59.50        3  2
  21 Lehigh                67.45     9.60   64.00   27  24  38     70.00        6  2
  22 Virginia Tech         65.79    11.40   61.39   26  26  33     68.50        7  3
  23 Brown                 65.11     3.10   64.00   19  37  19     65.50        4  3
  24 Vanderbilt            64.33    15.10   57.98   20  61   9     85.50        4  5
  25 Stanford              63.76    18.20   55.70   22  60  11     87.50        3  4
  26 Denver                63.22    18.60   54.82   30  16  62     77.00        7  1
  27 San Diego State       61.90     0.00   61.90   24  31  25     67.50        3  2
  28 Louisville            59.03     4.60   57.06   21  44  21     75.50        5  4
  29 Hofstra               58.84    14.50   51.86   32  28  32     76.00        4  3
  30 Ohio State            56.72    15.00   49.08   31  48  30     94.00        5  4
  31 Richmond              55.57    10.70   50.25   28   7  83     76.50        7  0
  32 Rutgers               55.38    14.90   47.57   34  54  31    103.50        5  4
  33 George Mason          54.87    10.00   49.86   35  51  34    103.00        4  3
  34 Georgetown            54.71    15.40   46.46   38  47  40    105.00        4  3
  35 Army                  54.17    10.00   49.08   29  10  85     81.50        7  0
  36 Yale                  54.01    13.50   46.83   39  32  45     93.50        3  2
  37 Monmouth              53.36    10.40   47.94   37  36  64    105.00        6  2
  38 Duke                  53.16    12.50   46.46   40  27  53     93.50        6  3
  39 Princeton             52.49    15.70   43.65   42  30  51     97.50        3  2
  40 Harvard               47.21     8.50   42.30   41  65  35    123.50        3  3
  41 Cornell               23.60    23.60    0.00   49  33  76    120.00        4  2
  42 Delaware              20.70    20.70    0.00   54  69  36    141.00        2  3
  43 Marquette             18.50    18.50    0.00   45  63  61    138.50        6  4
  44 Cincinnati            18.30    18.30    0.00   76  80  73    192.50        3  4
  45 Arizona State         17.80    17.80    0.00   53  49  70    137.00        5  3
  46 Temple                17.80    17.80    0.00   80  75  96    203.00        5  4
  47 Connecticut           17.70    17.70    0.00   44  22  79    105.50        5  2
  48 Jacksonville          16.60    16.60    0.00   51  18  88    113.00        3  1
  49 Old Dominion          16.50    16.50    0.00  107 106 109    267.50        3  6
  50 Butler                16.40    16.40    0.00   93  43 117    194.50        5  2
  51 High Point            15.70    15.70    0.00   36  52   8     92.00        1  4
  52 Winthrop              15.60    15.60    0.00  118 118 114    293.00        0  7
  53 East Carolina         15.40    15.40    0.00   61  58  84    161.00        5  3
  54 Drexel                14.60    14.60    0.00   43  34  78    116.00        5  2
  55 Villanova             14.60    14.60    0.00   72  96  58    197.00        3  5
  56 Oregon                14.30    14.30    0.00   87  99  68    220.00        2  5
  57 Campbell              14.20    14.20    0.00   98 112  82    251.00        2  7
  58 Howard                14.10    14.10    0.00  117 105 102    273.00        0  5
  59 Gardner-Webb          14.00    14.00    0.00   82  50 110    187.00        6  3
  60 Radford               13.80    13.80    0.00  102 113  90    260.00        2  7
  61 Liberty               13.60    13.60    0.00   58  66  56    152.00        3  3
  62 Massachusetts-Lowell  13.50    13.50    0.00   88  92  71    215.50        2  5
  63 Presbyterian          13.50    13.50    0.00  106 100 101    256.50        2  5
  64 Longwood              13.20    13.20    0.00   60  95  42    176.00        3  5
  65 Siena                 13.10    13.10    0.00   62  77  48    163.00        3  4
  66 William & Mary        13.00    13.00    0.00   83 101  60    214.00        2  5
  67 Vermont               12.70    12.70    0.00   81  78  91    204.50        4  4
  68 UMBC                  12.60    12.60    0.00   65  89  37    172.50        2  4
  69 Coastal Carolina      12.50    12.50    0.00   74  68  66    175.00        2  3
  70 Sacred Heart          12.50    12.50    0.00  114 104 105    270.50        1  5
  71 St. Bonaventure       12.50    12.50    0.00  109  41 118    209.00        5  2
  72 Binghamton            12.40    12.40    0.00   69  91  52    186.00        3  5
  73 Iona                  11.90    11.90    0.00   89  81  94    217.00        3  4
  74 Marist                11.90    11.90    0.00   66  88  46    177.00        2  4
  75 Robert Morris         11.90    11.90    0.00   71  40 108    165.00        5  2
  76 Kent State            11.80    11.80    0.00  108 109  67    250.50        0  6
  77 Akron                 11.60    11.60    0.00  113 114  86    270.00        0  7
  78 Bryant                11.60    11.60    0.00   50  38  77    126.50        4  2
  79 New Hampshire         11.60    11.60    0.00   94  74  69    202.50        1  4
  80 Boston University     11.50    11.50    0.00   59  42  57    129.50        3  3
  81 Fairfield             11.50    11.50    0.00   90  97  75    224.50        2  5
  82 Long Island           11.50    11.50    0.00   86 103  47    212.50        1  5
  83 Hartford              11.40    11.40    0.00  110 117  72    263.00        0  7
  84 Holy Cross            11.20    11.20    0.00   84  53 112    193.00        5  3
  85 George Washington     11.00    11.00    0.00  105 116  55    248.50        0  7
  86 Kennesaw State        11.00    11.00    0.00   77  70  74    184.00        3  4
  87 Mount St. Mary's      11.00    11.00    0.00   55  19 107    127.50        6  1
  88 Niagara               10.90    10.90    0.00   78  84  80    202.00        3  4
  89 Virginia Commonwealt  10.90    10.90    0.00   97  86 104    235.00        3  4
  90 Towson                10.80    10.80    0.00   33  55  18     97.00        2  4
  91 Wagner                10.80    10.80    0.00   64  79  50    168.00        3  4
  92 Lafayette             10.60    10.60    0.00   73  62  92    181.00        4  3
  93 Saint Francis         10.50    10.50    0.00  100  64 116    222.00        4  3
  94 Manhattan             10.40    10.40    0.00   92  83 100    225.00        3  4
  95 Merrimack             10.30    10.30    0.00  112 107  98    268.00        1  6
  96 Quinnipiac            10.00    10.00    0.00   95  85 103    231.50        3  4
  97 Canisius               9.90     9.90    0.00   91  94  59    214.50        1  5
  98 Central Connecticut    9.90     9.90    0.00  116 108  95    271.50        0  6
  99 Colgate                9.80     9.80    0.00   52  73  39    144.50        3  4
 100 Davidson               9.80     9.80    0.00   46  72  28    132.00        2  4
 101 Elon                   9.70     9.70    0.00   70  46  93    162.50        3  2
 102 Navy                   9.60     9.60    0.00   48  71  29    133.50        2  4
 103 La Salle               9.50     9.50    0.00   85  82  89    211.50        3  4
 104 Saint Joseph's         9.40     9.40    0.00   47  59  54    133.00        4  3
 105 Stetson                8.80     8.80    0.00  111  90 106    254.00        1  4
 106 American               8.70     8.70    0.00   56   9 115    122.50        7  0
 107 Bucknell               8.60     8.60    0.00   99  93  99    241.50        3  5
 108 California             8.60     8.60    0.00   67  87  44    176.00        2  5
 109 Duquesne               8.40     8.40    0.00   79  57  87    179.50        3  3
 110 Columbia               5.20     5.20    0.00  101 115  49    240.50        0  7
 111 Central Michigan       0.00     0.00    0.00   57  56  43    134.50        2  3
 112 Delaware State         0.00     0.00    0.00  115 102 113    273.50        1  5
 113 Detroit Mercy          0.00     0.00    0.00  103 111  81    254.50        1  7
 114 Fresno State           0.00     0.00    0.00  104  98  97    250.50        2  5
 115 Furman                 0.00     0.00    0.00   68  76  65    176.50        3  4
 116 Mercer                 0.00     0.00    0.00   75  39 111    169.50        5  2
 117 UC Davis               0.00     0.00    0.00   63  67  63    161.50        3  3
 118 Wofford                0.00     0.00    0.00   96 110  41    226.50        0  6