Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities
AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Women s Division I Championship Tournament
The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with
the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ).
The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability
goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games.
Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[1] Won-loss record
[2] Strength of schedule
[3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI)
[-] Head-to-head competition
[-] Results vs. common opponents
[4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams)
[5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%)
Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[6] Late-season performance (last six games)
[-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large).
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN AUTO AT-LARGE RANK
SEL QUAL SEL RPI QW SOS RPI+QW+SOS/2 W L
PROB PROB PROB SUM
[3] [4] [2]
1 Dartmouth 100.00 15.10 100.00 4 5 17 17.50 5 0
2 Florida 100.00 15.70 100.00 10 6 7 19.50 6 2
3 James Madison 100.00 16.70 100.00 7 11 5 20.50 5 1
4 Loyola 100.00 10.40 100.00 1 1 1 2.50 5 0
5 Michigan 100.00 14.00 100.00 2 13 2 16.00 5 1
6 North Carolina 100.00 22.50 100.00 5 2 20 17.00 7 0
7 Notre Dame 100.00 22.40 100.00 8 3 23 22.50 7 0
8 Penn 100.00 15.30 100.00 6 14 4 22.00 4 1
9 Southern California 100.00 22.50 100.00 3 4 16 15.00 6 0
10 Stony Brook 100.00 12.20 100.00 9 15 12 30.00 4 1
11 Massachusetts 95.87 7.80 95.52 11 12 15 30.50 4 1
12 Penn State 93.46 14.60 92.34 12 17 10 34.00 5 2
13 Syracuse 88.47 14.00 86.60 14 8 26 35.00 7 1
14 Boston College 79.40 7.60 77.71 13 20 3 34.50 4 3
15 Northwestern 73.40 12.20 69.71 15 25 13 46.50 4 3
16 Johns Hopkins 73.20 14.90 68.51 16 35 14 58.00 4 3
17 Virginia 70.65 5.00 69.10 18 45 22 74.00 5 3
18 Maryland 69.64 14.40 64.54 17 29 6 49.00 3 3
19 Albany 67.98 13.60 62.94 23 23 24 58.00 3 2
20 Colorado 67.76 18.60 60.39 25 21 27 59.50 3 2
21 Lehigh 67.45 9.60 64.00 27 24 38 70.00 6 2
22 Virginia Tech 65.79 11.40 61.39 26 26 33 68.50 7 3
23 Brown 65.11 3.10 64.00 19 37 19 65.50 4 3
24 Vanderbilt 64.33 15.10 57.98 20 61 9 85.50 4 5
25 Stanford 63.76 18.20 55.70 22 60 11 87.50 3 4
26 Denver 63.22 18.60 54.82 30 16 62 77.00 7 1
27 San Diego State 61.90 0.00 61.90 24 31 25 67.50 3 2
28 Louisville 59.03 4.60 57.06 21 44 21 75.50 5 4
29 Hofstra 58.84 14.50 51.86 32 28 32 76.00 4 3
30 Ohio State 56.72 15.00 49.08 31 48 30 94.00 5 4
31 Richmond 55.57 10.70 50.25 28 7 83 76.50 7 0
32 Rutgers 55.38 14.90 47.57 34 54 31 103.50 5 4
33 George Mason 54.87 10.00 49.86 35 51 34 103.00 4 3
34 Georgetown 54.71 15.40 46.46 38 47 40 105.00 4 3
35 Army 54.17 10.00 49.08 29 10 85 81.50 7 0
36 Yale 54.01 13.50 46.83 39 32 45 93.50 3 2
37 Monmouth 53.36 10.40 47.94 37 36 64 105.00 6 2
38 Duke 53.16 12.50 46.46 40 27 53 93.50 6 3
39 Princeton 52.49 15.70 43.65 42 30 51 97.50 3 2
40 Harvard 47.21 8.50 42.30 41 65 35 123.50 3 3
41 Cornell 23.60 23.60 0.00 49 33 76 120.00 4 2
42 Delaware 20.70 20.70 0.00 54 69 36 141.00 2 3
43 Marquette 18.50 18.50 0.00 45 63 61 138.50 6 4
44 Cincinnati 18.30 18.30 0.00 76 80 73 192.50 3 4
45 Arizona State 17.80 17.80 0.00 53 49 70 137.00 5 3
46 Temple 17.80 17.80 0.00 80 75 96 203.00 5 4
47 Connecticut 17.70 17.70 0.00 44 22 79 105.50 5 2
48 Jacksonville 16.60 16.60 0.00 51 18 88 113.00 3 1
49 Old Dominion 16.50 16.50 0.00 107 106 109 267.50 3 6
50 Butler 16.40 16.40 0.00 93 43 117 194.50 5 2
51 High Point 15.70 15.70 0.00 36 52 8 92.00 1 4
52 Winthrop 15.60 15.60 0.00 118 118 114 293.00 0 7
53 East Carolina 15.40 15.40 0.00 61 58 84 161.00 5 3
54 Drexel 14.60 14.60 0.00 43 34 78 116.00 5 2
55 Villanova 14.60 14.60 0.00 72 96 58 197.00 3 5
56 Oregon 14.30 14.30 0.00 87 99 68 220.00 2 5
57 Campbell 14.20 14.20 0.00 98 112 82 251.00 2 7
58 Howard 14.10 14.10 0.00 117 105 102 273.00 0 5
59 Gardner-Webb 14.00 14.00 0.00 82 50 110 187.00 6 3
60 Radford 13.80 13.80 0.00 102 113 90 260.00 2 7
61 Liberty 13.60 13.60 0.00 58 66 56 152.00 3 3
62 Massachusetts-Lowell 13.50 13.50 0.00 88 92 71 215.50 2 5
63 Presbyterian 13.50 13.50 0.00 106 100 101 256.50 2 5
64 Longwood 13.20 13.20 0.00 60 95 42 176.00 3 5
65 Siena 13.10 13.10 0.00 62 77 48 163.00 3 4
66 William & Mary 13.00 13.00 0.00 83 101 60 214.00 2 5
67 Vermont 12.70 12.70 0.00 81 78 91 204.50 4 4
68 UMBC 12.60 12.60 0.00 65 89 37 172.50 2 4
69 Coastal Carolina 12.50 12.50 0.00 74 68 66 175.00 2 3
70 Sacred Heart 12.50 12.50 0.00 114 104 105 270.50 1 5
71 St. Bonaventure 12.50 12.50 0.00 109 41 118 209.00 5 2
72 Binghamton 12.40 12.40 0.00 69 91 52 186.00 3 5
73 Iona 11.90 11.90 0.00 89 81 94 217.00 3 4
74 Marist 11.90 11.90 0.00 66 88 46 177.00 2 4
75 Robert Morris 11.90 11.90 0.00 71 40 108 165.00 5 2
76 Kent State 11.80 11.80 0.00 108 109 67 250.50 0 6
77 Akron 11.60 11.60 0.00 113 114 86 270.00 0 7
78 Bryant 11.60 11.60 0.00 50 38 77 126.50 4 2
79 New Hampshire 11.60 11.60 0.00 94 74 69 202.50 1 4
80 Boston University 11.50 11.50 0.00 59 42 57 129.50 3 3
81 Fairfield 11.50 11.50 0.00 90 97 75 224.50 2 5
82 Long Island 11.50 11.50 0.00 86 103 47 212.50 1 5
83 Hartford 11.40 11.40 0.00 110 117 72 263.00 0 7
84 Holy Cross 11.20 11.20 0.00 84 53 112 193.00 5 3
85 George Washington 11.00 11.00 0.00 105 116 55 248.50 0 7
86 Kennesaw State 11.00 11.00 0.00 77 70 74 184.00 3 4
87 Mount St. Mary's 11.00 11.00 0.00 55 19 107 127.50 6 1
88 Niagara 10.90 10.90 0.00 78 84 80 202.00 3 4
89 Virginia Commonwealt 10.90 10.90 0.00 97 86 104 235.00 3 4
90 Towson 10.80 10.80 0.00 33 55 18 97.00 2 4
91 Wagner 10.80 10.80 0.00 64 79 50 168.00 3 4
92 Lafayette 10.60 10.60 0.00 73 62 92 181.00 4 3
93 Saint Francis 10.50 10.50 0.00 100 64 116 222.00 4 3
94 Manhattan 10.40 10.40 0.00 92 83 100 225.00 3 4
95 Merrimack 10.30 10.30 0.00 112 107 98 268.00 1 6
96 Quinnipiac 10.00 10.00 0.00 95 85 103 231.50 3 4
97 Canisius 9.90 9.90 0.00 91 94 59 214.50 1 5
98 Central Connecticut 9.90 9.90 0.00 116 108 95 271.50 0 6
99 Colgate 9.80 9.80 0.00 52 73 39 144.50 3 4
100 Davidson 9.80 9.80 0.00 46 72 28 132.00 2 4
101 Elon 9.70 9.70 0.00 70 46 93 162.50 3 2
102 Navy 9.60 9.60 0.00 48 71 29 133.50 2 4
103 La Salle 9.50 9.50 0.00 85 82 89 211.50 3 4
104 Saint Joseph's 9.40 9.40 0.00 47 59 54 133.00 4 3
105 Stetson 8.80 8.80 0.00 111 90 106 254.00 1 4
106 American 8.70 8.70 0.00 56 9 115 122.50 7 0
107 Bucknell 8.60 8.60 0.00 99 93 99 241.50 3 5
108 California 8.60 8.60 0.00 67 87 44 176.00 2 5
109 Duquesne 8.40 8.40 0.00 79 57 87 179.50 3 3
110 Columbia 5.20 5.20 0.00 101 115 49 240.50 0 7
111 Central Michigan 0.00 0.00 0.00 57 56 43 134.50 2 3
112 Delaware State 0.00 0.00 0.00 115 102 113 273.50 1 5
113 Detroit Mercy 0.00 0.00 0.00 103 111 81 254.50 1 7
114 Fresno State 0.00 0.00 0.00 104 98 97 250.50 2 5
115 Furman 0.00 0.00 0.00 68 76 65 176.50 3 4
116 Mercer 0.00 0.00 0.00 75 39 111 169.50 5 2
117 UC Davis 0.00 0.00 0.00 63 67 63 161.50 3 3
118 Wofford 0.00 0.00 0.00 96 110 41 226.50 0 6
