Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.
                         

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division I Championship Tournament

The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large). Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.
 RNK TEAMNAME              TOURN    AUTO  AT-LARGE     RANK
                            SEL     QUAL    SEL     RPI QW SOS  RPI+QW+SOS/2    W  L
                           PROB     PROB   PROB                     SUM
                                                    [3] [4] [2]
 
   1 California            21.80    21.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   2 Arizona State         20.40    20.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   3 Georgetown            20.30    20.30    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   4 Denver                19.60    19.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   5 Colorado              19.40    19.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   6 Saint Francis         19.20    19.20    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   7 Robert Morris         19.00    19.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   8 Mercer                18.70    18.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   9 Cincinnati            18.30    18.30    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  10 Temple                17.80    17.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  11 Connecticut           17.70    17.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  12 Butler                17.30    17.30    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  13 Central Michigan      17.00    17.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  14 UMBC                  17.00    17.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  15 Furman                16.70    16.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  16 William & Mary        16.70    16.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  17 Delaware State        16.40    16.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  18 Wofford               16.10    16.10    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  19 Old Dominion          16.00    16.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  20 Hartford              15.90    15.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  21 Oregon                15.80    15.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  22 Stony Brook           15.80    15.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  23 Florida               15.70    15.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  24 Hofstra               15.70    15.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  25 East Carolina         15.40    15.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  26 Longwood              15.30    15.30    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  27 Detroit Mercy         15.10    15.10    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  28 Northwestern          15.10    15.10    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  29 Vanderbilt            15.10    15.10    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  30 Delaware              15.00    15.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  31 Radford               15.00    15.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  32 Richmond              15.00    15.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  33 Presbyterian          14.90    14.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  34 Coastal Carolina      14.80    14.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  35 Michigan              14.80    14.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  36 La Salle              14.70    14.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  37 Campbell              14.40    14.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  38 Gardner-Webb          14.40    14.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  39 Maryland              14.30    14.30    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  40 Saint Joseph's        14.30    14.30    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  41 Jacksonville          14.20    14.20    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  42 Penn State            14.20    14.20    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  43 Johns Hopkins         14.10    14.10    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  44 Columbia              13.90    13.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  45 George Mason          13.80    13.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  46 Rutgers               13.80    13.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  47 Drexel                13.70    13.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  48 Louisville            13.70    13.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  49 Ohio State            13.70    13.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  50 Penn                  13.70    13.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  51 Princeton             13.70    13.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  52 Villanova             13.70    13.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  53 Harvard               13.60    13.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  54 Mount St. Mary's      13.60    13.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  55 Stetson               13.60    13.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  56 Merrimack             13.50    13.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  57 Boston College        13.30    13.30    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  58 Elon                  13.30    13.30    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  59 Towson                13.30    13.30    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  60 Stanford              13.20    13.20    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  61 Winthrop              13.20    13.20    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  62 Marquette             13.10    13.10    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  63 High Point            12.80    12.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  64 Howard                12.80    12.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  65 Davidson              12.70    12.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  66 Notre Dame            12.70    12.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  67 Syracuse              12.70    12.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  68 Cornell               12.60    12.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  69 Dartmouth             12.50    12.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  70 North Carolina        12.50    12.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  71 Siena                 12.50    12.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  72 Bucknell              12.40    12.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  73 Vermont               12.40    12.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  74 James Madison         12.30    12.30    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  75 Duke                  12.00    12.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  76 Monmouth              12.00    12.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  77 Marist                11.80    11.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  78 New Hampshire         11.80    11.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  79 Binghamton            11.60    11.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  80 Liberty               11.60    11.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  81 Virginia              11.60    11.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  82 American              11.50    11.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  83 Kennesaw State        11.50    11.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  84 Kent State            11.50    11.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  85 Virginia Tech         11.50    11.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  86 Canisius              11.10    11.10    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  87 Iona                  11.00    11.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  88 Niagara               11.00    11.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  89 Albany                10.90    10.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  90 Army                  10.80    10.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  91 Manhattan             10.70    10.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  92 Boston University     10.60    10.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  93 Quinnipiac            10.50    10.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  94 Akron                 10.00    10.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  95 Brown                 10.00    10.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  96 Lehigh                10.00    10.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  97 Navy                  10.00    10.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  98 Yale                  10.00    10.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  99 Wagner                 9.80     9.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 100 Massachusetts          9.50     9.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 101 Fairfield              9.40     9.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 102 Southern California    9.40     9.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 103 Holy Cross             8.90     8.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 104 Lafayette              8.90     8.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 105 Loyola                 8.70     8.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 106 Sacred Heart           8.50     8.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 107 Colgate                8.20     8.20    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 108 Duquesne               8.00     8.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 109 Bryant                 7.50     7.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 110 George Washington      6.60     6.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 111 LIU Brooklyn           6.50     6.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 112 Massachusetts-Lowell   4.60     4.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 113 St. Bonaventure        4.50     4.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 114 Central Connecticut    2.40     2.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 115 Virginia Commonwealt   0.90     0.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 116 Fresno State           0.00     0.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 117 San Diego State        0.00     0.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
 118 UC Davis               0.00     0.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0