Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities
AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Women s Division I Championship Tournament
The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with
the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ).
The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability
goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games.
Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[1] Won-loss record
[2] Strength of schedule
[3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI)
[-] Head-to-head competition
[-] Results vs. common opponents
[4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams)
[5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%)
Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[6] Late-season performance (last six games)
[-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large).
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN AUTO AT-LARGE RANK
SEL QUAL SEL RPI QW SOS RPI+QW+SOS/2 W L
PROB PROB PROB SUM
[3] [4] [2]
1 California 21.80 21.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
2 Arizona State 20.40 20.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
3 Georgetown 20.30 20.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
4 Denver 19.60 19.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
5 Colorado 19.40 19.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
6 Saint Francis 19.20 19.20 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
7 Robert Morris 19.00 19.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
8 Mercer 18.70 18.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
9 Cincinnati 18.30 18.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
10 Temple 17.80 17.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
11 Connecticut 17.70 17.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
12 Butler 17.30 17.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
13 Central Michigan 17.00 17.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
14 UMBC 17.00 17.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
15 Furman 16.70 16.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
16 William & Mary 16.70 16.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
17 Delaware State 16.40 16.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
18 Wofford 16.10 16.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
19 Old Dominion 16.00 16.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
20 Hartford 15.90 15.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
21 Oregon 15.80 15.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
22 Stony Brook 15.80 15.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
23 Florida 15.70 15.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
24 Hofstra 15.70 15.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
25 East Carolina 15.40 15.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
26 Longwood 15.30 15.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
27 Detroit Mercy 15.10 15.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
28 Northwestern 15.10 15.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
29 Vanderbilt 15.10 15.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
30 Delaware 15.00 15.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
31 Radford 15.00 15.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
32 Richmond 15.00 15.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
33 Presbyterian 14.90 14.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
34 Coastal Carolina 14.80 14.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
35 Michigan 14.80 14.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
36 La Salle 14.70 14.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
37 Campbell 14.40 14.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
38 Gardner-Webb 14.40 14.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
39 Maryland 14.30 14.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
40 Saint Joseph's 14.30 14.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
41 Jacksonville 14.20 14.20 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
42 Penn State 14.20 14.20 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
43 Johns Hopkins 14.10 14.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
44 Columbia 13.90 13.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
45 George Mason 13.80 13.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
46 Rutgers 13.80 13.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
47 Drexel 13.70 13.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
48 Louisville 13.70 13.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
49 Ohio State 13.70 13.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
50 Penn 13.70 13.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
51 Princeton 13.70 13.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
52 Villanova 13.70 13.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
53 Harvard 13.60 13.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
54 Mount St. Mary's 13.60 13.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
55 Stetson 13.60 13.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
56 Merrimack 13.50 13.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
57 Boston College 13.30 13.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
58 Elon 13.30 13.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
59 Towson 13.30 13.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
60 Stanford 13.20 13.20 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
61 Winthrop 13.20 13.20 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
62 Marquette 13.10 13.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
63 High Point 12.80 12.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
64 Howard 12.80 12.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
65 Davidson 12.70 12.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
66 Notre Dame 12.70 12.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
67 Syracuse 12.70 12.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
68 Cornell 12.60 12.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
69 Dartmouth 12.50 12.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
70 North Carolina 12.50 12.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
71 Siena 12.50 12.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
72 Bucknell 12.40 12.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
73 Vermont 12.40 12.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
74 James Madison 12.30 12.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
75 Duke 12.00 12.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
76 Monmouth 12.00 12.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
77 Marist 11.80 11.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
78 New Hampshire 11.80 11.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
79 Binghamton 11.60 11.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
80 Liberty 11.60 11.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
81 Virginia 11.60 11.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
82 American 11.50 11.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
83 Kennesaw State 11.50 11.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
84 Kent State 11.50 11.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
85 Virginia Tech 11.50 11.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
86 Canisius 11.10 11.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
87 Iona 11.00 11.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
88 Niagara 11.00 11.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
89 Albany 10.90 10.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
90 Army 10.80 10.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
91 Manhattan 10.70 10.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
92 Boston University 10.60 10.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
93 Quinnipiac 10.50 10.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
94 Akron 10.00 10.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
95 Brown 10.00 10.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
96 Lehigh 10.00 10.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
97 Navy 10.00 10.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
98 Yale 10.00 10.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
99 Wagner 9.80 9.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
100 Massachusetts 9.50 9.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
101 Fairfield 9.40 9.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
102 Southern California 9.40 9.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
103 Holy Cross 8.90 8.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
104 Lafayette 8.90 8.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
105 Loyola 8.70 8.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
106 Sacred Heart 8.50 8.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
107 Colgate 8.20 8.20 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
108 Duquesne 8.00 8.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
109 Bryant 7.50 7.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
110 George Washington 6.60 6.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
111 LIU Brooklyn 6.50 6.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
112 Massachusetts-Lowell 4.60 4.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
113 St. Bonaventure 4.50 4.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
114 Central Connecticut 2.40 2.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
115 Virginia Commonwealt 0.90 0.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
116 Fresno State 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
117 San Diego State 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
118 UC Davis 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
