Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities
AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Women s Division I Championship Tournament
The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with
the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ).
The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability
goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games.
Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[1] Won-loss record
[2] Strength of schedule
[3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI)
[-] Head-to-head competition
[-] Results vs. common opponents
[4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams)
[5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%)
Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[6] Late-season performance (last six games)
[-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large).
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?
RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ
PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L
[3] [4] [2]
1 North Carolina Atlantic Coast 98.70 32.70 1 1 6 7 0
2 Syracuse Atlantic Coast 96.80 20.70 3 8 16 7 1
3 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast 96.60 21.00 14 17 22 7 0
4 Loyola Patriot League 90.20 22.00 10 10 12 5 0
5 Dartmouth Ivy League 82.50 20.10 2 3 4 5 0
6 Southern California Pacific 12 79.20 35.60 22 40 14 6 0
7 Florida American 77.20 29.50 6 11 2 6 2
8 Northwestern Big Ten 74.00 25.90 59 71 18 4 3
9 Michigan Big Ten 73.80 21.60 7 14 57 5 1
10 Army Patriot League 70.20 13.50 15 7 36 7 0
11 Virginia Tech Atlantic Coast 67.50 10.30 16 26 7 7 3
12 James Madison Colonial 65.40 26.60 8 16 20 5 1
13 Penn Ivy League 62.40 31.70 32 21 44 4 1
14 Boston College Atlantic Coast 58.30 5.50 5 12 3 4 3
15 Penn State Big Ten 52.40 12.90 19 18 43 5 2
16 Virginia Atlantic Coast 50.40 1.80 4 4 1 5 3
17 Stony Brook America East 49.00 23.30 11 2 30 4 1
18 Duke Atlantic Coast 45.60 6.50 34 32 21 6 3
19 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 45.60 21.20 12 20 17 4 1
20 Lehigh Patriot League 45.10 16.90 62 77 47 6 2
21 Maryland Big Ten 44.40 15.00 27 30 13 3 3
22 Denver Big East 43.40 28.10 23 23 49 7 1
23 Colorado Pacific 12 39.10 18.80 36 45 11 3 2
24 Louisville Atlantic Coast 37.90 1.50 21 35 5 5 4
25 Stanford Pacific 12 35.80 22.70 73 89 55 3 4
26 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 35.30 28.30 25 22 38 3 1
27 Brown Ivy League 33.30 5.30 13 5 23 4 3
28 Hofstra Colonial 31.40 19.30 40 44 27 4 3
29 Albany America East 29.90 18.40 31 36 10 3 2
30 Connecticut American 29.10 23.00 9 6 26 5 2
31 High Point Big South 28.80 27.00 58 42 31 1 4
32 Johns Hopkins Big Ten 27.80 10.10 28 34 25 4 3
33 Princeton Ivy League 27.80 15.70 42 49 9 3 2
34 Mercer Southern 27.00 26.80 87 59 109 5 2
35 Vanderbilt American 26.80 16.50 24 25 8 4 5
36 Cornell Ivy League 26.10 14.20 63 52 29 4 2
37 Georgetown Big East 25.70 20.50 45 43 53 4 3
38 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 25.10 23.90 57 28 97 6 2
39 Wagner Northeast 23.10 23.10 77 100 61 3 4
40 Longwood Big South 22.40 22.40 54 53 71 3 5
41 Central Michigan Southern 21.20 21.00 112 109 107 2 3
42 Marquette Big East 21.10 20.10 65 65 90 6 4
43 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 20.40 20.40 98 110 87 2 5
44 Davidson Atlantic 10 20.10 18.00 41 41 39 2 4
45 Towson Colonial 18.80 16.50 39 61 15 2 4
46 Arizona State Pacific 12 18.60 11.90 44 27 63 5 3
47 Bryant Northeast 18.20 18.20 17 13 83 4 2
48 Coastal Carolina Atlantic Sun 18.20 18.20 93 80 99 2 3
49 Navy Patriot League 17.80 12.40 26 39 37 2 4
50 Furman Southern 17.50 17.50 113 111 108 3 4
51 Delaware Colonial 16.90 16.30 51 73 62 2 3
52 Richmond Atlantic 10 16.80 16.10 18 19 70 7 0
53 Robert Morris Northeast 16.80 16.80 38 15 110 5 2
54 Liberty Atlantic Sun 16.70 15.20 80 78 33 3 3
55 Vermont America East 15.80 15.80 74 75 89 4 4
56 Detroit Mercy Southern 14.70 14.70 114 105 118 1 7
57 Gardner-Webb Big South 14.40 14.40 100 82 113 6 3
58 Ohio State Big Ten 14.40 7.20 29 48 24 5 4
59 Temple American 14.40 14.20 61 60 74 5 4
60 Siena Metro Atlantic 14.30 14.30 70 58 85 3 4
61 Holy Cross Patriot League 13.30 7.50 66 56 42 5 3
62 East Carolina American 13.20 9.50 75 67 51 5 3
63 Villanova Big East 12.60 12.50 48 63 69 3 5
64 Boston University Patriot League 12.50 6.40 33 24 19 3 3
65 Campbell Big South 12.50 12.50 95 84 98 2 7
66 Rutgers Big Ten 12.50 7.30 30 31 40 5 4
67 George Mason Atlantic 10 12.30 11.20 47 66 54 4 3
68 UMBC America East 12.30 12.20 102 104 93 2 4
69 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 11.90 11.90 72 70 84 6 1
70 Wofford Southern 11.80 11.80 101 101 111 0 6
71 Colgate Patriot League 11.60 7.30 37 37 45 3 4
72 Kennesaw State Atlantic Sun 11.60 11.60 103 103 94 3 4
73 San Diego State MPSF 11.00 0.00 60 50 66 3 2
74 Canisius Metro Atlantic 10.90 10.90 76 81 67 1 5
75 Drexel Colonial 10.80 9.30 35 29 64 5 2
76 Marist Metro Atlantic 10.10 10.10 90 83 100 2 4
77 Radford Big South 9.90 9.90 108 113 80 2 7
78 Saint Joseph's Atlantic 10 9.90 9.90 43 62 73 4 3
79 Old Dominion Big East 9.60 9.60 89 94 77 3 6
80 Butler Big East 9.20 9.20 82 79 92 5 2
81 Binghamton America East 9.10 9.10 56 47 72 3 5
82 Massachusetts-Lowell America East 8.80 8.80 79 85 60 2 5
83 Cincinnati American 8.70 7.30 71 76 41 3 4
84 Sacred Heart Northeast 8.50 8.50 105 112 95 1 5
85 Harvard Ivy League 8.40 6.60 46 38 59 3 3
86 Yale Ivy League 8.40 5.60 64 51 34 3 2
87 Delaware State Southern 8.20 8.20 107 96 117 1 5
88 Stetson Atlantic Sun 8.10 8.10 110 87 115 1 4
89 American Patriot League 7.90 3.60 20 9 65 7 0
90 Winthrop Big South 7.90 7.90 117 117 112 0 7
91 Niagara Metro Atlantic 7.30 7.30 88 93 104 3 4
92 Kent State Atlantic Sun 6.80 6.80 84 69 106 0 6
93 La Salle Atlantic 10 6.70 6.50 83 91 76 3 4
94 Merrimack Northeast 6.60 6.60 85 106 78 1 6
95 William & Mary Colonial 6.60 6.60 49 72 35 2 5
96 Bucknell Patriot League 6.50 6.50 78 86 58 3 5
97 New Hampshire America East 6.40 6.40 96 92 56 1 4
98 Hartford America East 6.00 6.00 109 115 82 0 7
99 Howard Atlantic Sun 6.00 6.00 116 102 114 0 5
100 Presbyterian Big South 5.90 5.90 111 99 116 2 5
101 Akron Atlantic Sun 5.80 5.80 115 116 102 0 7
102 Duquesne Atlantic 10 5.70 5.40 53 64 46 3 3
103 Long Island Northeast 5.70 5.70 81 98 79 1 5
104 Oregon Pacific 12 5.70 5.70 55 54 32 2 5
105 Elon Colonial 5.60 5.40 52 33 81 3 2
106 California Pacific 12 5.40 5.30 94 88 68 2 5
107 Saint Francis Northeast 4.80 4.80 67 57 75 4 3
108 Iona Metro Atlantic 4.70 4.70 97 68 103 3 4
109 Lafayette Patriot League 4.70 3.90 50 46 52 4 3
110 George Washington Atlantic 10 4.60 4.60 91 114 48 0 7
111 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 4.50 4.50 69 74 88 3 4
112 Central Connecticut Northeast 4.40 4.40 118 118 96 0 6
113 Virginia Commonwealt Atlantic 10 4.20 4.20 86 108 50 3 4
114 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 3.90 3.90 104 107 101 3 4
115 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 2.90 2.90 68 55 86 5 2
116 Columbia Ivy League 0.80 0.80 92 95 28 0 7
117 UC Davis MPSF 0.10 0.00 106 90 105 3 3
118 Fresno State MPSF 0.00 0.00 99 97 91 2 5
