Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division I Championship Tournament

The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large). Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. ? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.
 RNK TEAMNAME             CONFERENCE         TOURN     AQ
                                             PROB     PROB    RPI QW  SOS  W  L
                                                              [3] [4] [2]
 
   1 North Carolina       Atlantic Coast     98.70    32.70    1   1   6   7  0
   2 Syracuse             Atlantic Coast     96.80    20.70    3   8  16   7  1
   3 Notre Dame           Atlantic Coast     96.60    21.00   14  17  22   7  0
   4 Loyola               Patriot League     90.20    22.00   10  10  12   5  0
   5 Dartmouth            Ivy League         82.50    20.10    2   3   4   5  0
   6 Southern California  Pacific 12         79.20    35.60   22  40  14   6  0
   7 Florida              American           77.20    29.50    6  11   2   6  2
   8 Northwestern         Big Ten            74.00    25.90   59  71  18   4  3
   9 Michigan             Big Ten            73.80    21.60    7  14  57   5  1
  10 Army                 Patriot League     70.20    13.50   15   7  36   7  0
  11 Virginia Tech        Atlantic Coast     67.50    10.30   16  26   7   7  3
  12 James Madison        Colonial           65.40    26.60    8  16  20   5  1
  13 Penn                 Ivy League         62.40    31.70   32  21  44   4  1
  14 Boston College       Atlantic Coast     58.30     5.50    5  12   3   4  3
  15 Penn State           Big Ten            52.40    12.90   19  18  43   5  2
  16 Virginia             Atlantic Coast     50.40     1.80    4   4   1   5  3
  17 Stony Brook          America East       49.00    23.30   11   2  30   4  1
  18 Duke                 Atlantic Coast     45.60     6.50   34  32  21   6  3
  19 Massachusetts        Atlantic 10        45.60    21.20   12  20  17   4  1
  20 Lehigh               Patriot League     45.10    16.90   62  77  47   6  2
  21 Maryland             Big Ten            44.40    15.00   27  30  13   3  3
  22 Denver               Big East           43.40    28.10   23  23  49   7  1
  23 Colorado             Pacific 12         39.10    18.80   36  45  11   3  2
  24 Louisville           Atlantic Coast     37.90     1.50   21  35   5   5  4
  25 Stanford             Pacific 12         35.80    22.70   73  89  55   3  4
  26 Jacksonville         Atlantic Sun       35.30    28.30   25  22  38   3  1
  27 Brown                Ivy League         33.30     5.30   13   5  23   4  3
  28 Hofstra              Colonial           31.40    19.30   40  44  27   4  3
  29 Albany               America East       29.90    18.40   31  36  10   3  2
  30 Connecticut          American           29.10    23.00    9   6  26   5  2
  31 High Point           Big South          28.80    27.00   58  42  31   1  4
  32 Johns Hopkins        Big Ten            27.80    10.10   28  34  25   4  3
  33 Princeton            Ivy League         27.80    15.70   42  49   9   3  2
  34 Mercer               Southern           27.00    26.80   87  59 109   5  2
  35 Vanderbilt           American           26.80    16.50   24  25   8   4  5
  36 Cornell              Ivy League         26.10    14.20   63  52  29   4  2
  37 Georgetown           Big East           25.70    20.50   45  43  53   4  3
  38 Monmouth             Metro Atlantic     25.10    23.90   57  28  97   6  2
  39 Wagner               Northeast          23.10    23.10   77 100  61   3  4
  40 Longwood             Big South          22.40    22.40   54  53  71   3  5
  41 Central Michigan     Southern           21.20    21.00  112 109 107   2  3
  42 Marquette            Big East           21.10    20.10   65  65  90   6  4
  43 Fairfield            Metro Atlantic     20.40    20.40   98 110  87   2  5
  44 Davidson             Atlantic 10        20.10    18.00   41  41  39   2  4
  45 Towson               Colonial           18.80    16.50   39  61  15   2  4
  46 Arizona State        Pacific 12         18.60    11.90   44  27  63   5  3
  47 Bryant               Northeast          18.20    18.20   17  13  83   4  2
  48 Coastal Carolina     Atlantic Sun       18.20    18.20   93  80  99   2  3
  49 Navy                 Patriot League     17.80    12.40   26  39  37   2  4
  50 Furman               Southern           17.50    17.50  113 111 108   3  4
  51 Delaware             Colonial           16.90    16.30   51  73  62   2  3
  52 Richmond             Atlantic 10        16.80    16.10   18  19  70   7  0
  53 Robert Morris        Northeast          16.80    16.80   38  15 110   5  2
  54 Liberty              Atlantic Sun       16.70    15.20   80  78  33   3  3
  55 Vermont              America East       15.80    15.80   74  75  89   4  4
  56 Detroit Mercy        Southern           14.70    14.70  114 105 118   1  7
  57 Gardner-Webb         Big South          14.40    14.40  100  82 113   6  3
  58 Ohio State           Big Ten            14.40     7.20   29  48  24   5  4
  59 Temple               American           14.40    14.20   61  60  74   5  4
  60 Siena                Metro Atlantic     14.30    14.30   70  58  85   3  4
  61 Holy Cross           Patriot League     13.30     7.50   66  56  42   5  3
  62 East Carolina        American           13.20     9.50   75  67  51   5  3
  63 Villanova            Big East           12.60    12.50   48  63  69   3  5
  64 Boston University    Patriot League     12.50     6.40   33  24  19   3  3
  65 Campbell             Big South          12.50    12.50   95  84  98   2  7
  66 Rutgers              Big Ten            12.50     7.30   30  31  40   5  4
  67 George Mason         Atlantic 10        12.30    11.20   47  66  54   4  3
  68 UMBC                 America East       12.30    12.20  102 104  93   2  4
  69 Mount St. Mary's     Northeast          11.90    11.90   72  70  84   6  1
  70 Wofford              Southern           11.80    11.80  101 101 111   0  6
  71 Colgate              Patriot League     11.60     7.30   37  37  45   3  4
  72 Kennesaw State       Atlantic Sun       11.60    11.60  103 103  94   3  4
  73 San Diego State      MPSF               11.00     0.00   60  50  66   3  2
  74 Canisius             Metro Atlantic     10.90    10.90   76  81  67   1  5
  75 Drexel               Colonial           10.80     9.30   35  29  64   5  2
  76 Marist               Metro Atlantic     10.10    10.10   90  83 100   2  4
  77 Radford              Big South           9.90     9.90  108 113  80   2  7
  78 Saint Joseph's       Atlantic 10         9.90     9.90   43  62  73   4  3
  79 Old Dominion         Big East            9.60     9.60   89  94  77   3  6
  80 Butler               Big East            9.20     9.20   82  79  92   5  2
  81 Binghamton           America East        9.10     9.10   56  47  72   3  5
  82 Massachusetts-Lowell America East        8.80     8.80   79  85  60   2  5
  83 Cincinnati           American            8.70     7.30   71  76  41   3  4
  84 Sacred Heart         Northeast           8.50     8.50  105 112  95   1  5
  85 Harvard              Ivy League          8.40     6.60   46  38  59   3  3
  86 Yale                 Ivy League          8.40     5.60   64  51  34   3  2
  87 Delaware State       Southern            8.20     8.20  107  96 117   1  5
  88 Stetson              Atlantic Sun        8.10     8.10  110  87 115   1  4
  89 American             Patriot League      7.90     3.60   20   9  65   7  0
  90 Winthrop             Big South           7.90     7.90  117 117 112   0  7
  91 Niagara              Metro Atlantic      7.30     7.30   88  93 104   3  4
  92 Kent State           Atlantic Sun        6.80     6.80   84  69 106   0  6
  93 La Salle             Atlantic 10         6.70     6.50   83  91  76   3  4
  94 Merrimack            Northeast           6.60     6.60   85 106  78   1  6
  95 William & Mary       Colonial            6.60     6.60   49  72  35   2  5
  96 Bucknell             Patriot League      6.50     6.50   78  86  58   3  5
  97 New Hampshire        America East        6.40     6.40   96  92  56   1  4
  98 Hartford             America East        6.00     6.00  109 115  82   0  7
  99 Howard               Atlantic Sun        6.00     6.00  116 102 114   0  5
 100 Presbyterian         Big South           5.90     5.90  111  99 116   2  5
 101 Akron                Atlantic Sun        5.80     5.80  115 116 102   0  7
 102 Duquesne             Atlantic 10         5.70     5.40   53  64  46   3  3
 103 Long Island          Northeast           5.70     5.70   81  98  79   1  5
 104 Oregon               Pacific 12          5.70     5.70   55  54  32   2  5
 105 Elon                 Colonial            5.60     5.40   52  33  81   3  2
 106 California           Pacific 12          5.40     5.30   94  88  68   2  5
 107 Saint Francis        Northeast           4.80     4.80   67  57  75   4  3
 108 Iona                 Metro Atlantic      4.70     4.70   97  68 103   3  4
 109 Lafayette            Patriot League      4.70     3.90   50  46  52   4  3
 110 George Washington    Atlantic 10         4.60     4.60   91 114  48   0  7
 111 Quinnipiac           Metro Atlantic      4.50     4.50   69  74  88   3  4
 112 Central Connecticut  Northeast           4.40     4.40  118 118  96   0  6
 113 Virginia Commonwealt Atlantic 10         4.20     4.20   86 108  50   3  4
 114 Manhattan            Metro Atlantic      3.90     3.90  104 107 101   3  4
 115 St. Bonaventure      Atlantic 10         2.90     2.90   68  55  86   5  2
 116 Columbia             Ivy League          0.80     0.80   92  95  28   0  7
 117 UC Davis             MPSF                0.10     0.00  106  90 105   3  3
 118 Fresno State         MPSF                0.00     0.00   99  97  91   2  5