Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division I Championship Tournament

The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large). Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. ? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?

Red vertical bar = AQ probability, blue vertical bar = at-large probability Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.
 RNK TEAMNAME             CONFERENCE         TOURN     AQ
                                             PROB     PROB    RPI QW  SOS  W  L
                                                              [3] [4] [2]
 
   1 Fairfield            Metro Atlantic    100.10   100.00   90  97  75   2  5
   2 High Point           Big South         100.10   100.00   36  53   9   1  4
   3 Boston College       Atlantic Coast    100.00     0.00   13  23   3   4  3
   4 Brown                Ivy League        100.00     0.00   19  37  19   4  3
   5 Dartmouth            Ivy League        100.00     0.00    4   4  16   5  0
   6 Florida              American          100.00   100.00   10   6   7   6  2
   7 Georgetown           Big East          100.00   100.00   38  46  41   4  3
   8 Jacksonville         Atlantic Sun      100.00   100.00   51  17  88   3  1
   9 James Madison        Colonial          100.00   100.00    8  11   5   5  1
  10 Johns Hopkins        Big Ten           100.00     0.00   16  35  13   4  3
  11 Lehigh               Patriot League    100.00     0.00   27  25  37   6  2
  12 Loyola               Patriot League    100.00   100.00    1   2   1   5  0
  13 Maryland             Big Ten           100.00     0.00   17  29   6   3  3
  14 Massachusetts        Atlantic 10       100.00     0.00   11  12  15   4  1
  15 Mercer               Southern          100.00   100.00   76  39 111   5  2
  16 Michigan             Big Ten           100.00     0.00    2  13   2   5  1
  17 North Carolina       Atlantic Coast    100.00   100.00    5   1  20   7  0
  18 Northwestern         Big Ten           100.00   100.00   15  26  12   4  3
  19 Notre Dame           Atlantic Coast    100.00     0.00    7   5  22   6  0
  20 Penn                 Ivy League        100.00     0.00    6  14   4   4  1
  21 Penn State           Big Ten           100.00     0.00   12  18   8   5  2
  22 Princeton            Ivy League        100.00   100.00   42  30  51   3  2
  23 Richmond             Atlantic 10       100.00   100.00   28   7  83   7  0
  24 Southern California  Pacific 12        100.00   100.00    3   3  14   6  0
  25 Stony Brook          America East      100.00   100.00    9  15  11   4  1
  26 Syracuse             Atlantic Coast    100.00     0.00   14   8  27   7  1
  27 Virginia             Atlantic Coast    100.00     0.00   18  44  23   5  3
  28 Wagner               Northeast         100.00   100.00   64  86  49   3  4
  29 Akron                Atlantic Sun        0.00     0.00  113 114  86   0  7
  30 Albany               America East        0.00     0.00   23  22  24   3  2
  31 American             Patriot League      0.00     0.00   57   9 115   7  0
  32 Arizona State        Pacific 12          0.00     0.00   53  50  70   5  3
  33 Army                 Patriot League      0.00     0.00   30  10  85   7  0
  34 Binghamton           America East        0.00     0.00   69  91  53   3  5
  35 Boston University    Patriot League      0.00     0.00   58  42  56   3  3
  36 Bryant               Northeast           0.00     0.00   50  38  77   4  2
  37 Bucknell             Patriot League      0.00     0.00   99  94  99   3  5
  38 Butler               Big East            0.00     0.00   93  43 117   4  2
  39 California           Pacific 12          0.00     0.00   67  87  44   2  5
  40 Campbell             Big South           0.00     0.00   98 112  82   2  7
  41 Canisius             Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   91  95  59   1  5
  42 Central Connecticut  Northeast           0.00     0.00  116 108  95   0  6
  43 Central Michigan     Southern            0.00     0.00   56  57  40   2  3
  44 Cincinnati           American            0.00     0.00   77  76  74   3  4
  45 Coastal Carolina     Atlantic Sun        0.00     0.00   74  68  66   2  3
  46 Colgate              Patriot League      0.00     0.00   52  73  39   3  4
  47 Colorado             Pacific 12          0.00     0.00   25  20  26   3  2
  48 Columbia             Ivy League          0.00     0.00  101 115  50   0  7
  49 Connecticut          American            0.00     0.00   44  21  79   5  2
  50 Cornell              Ivy League          0.00     0.00   48  33  76   4  2
  51 Davidson             Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   46  71  28   2  4
  52 Delaware             Colonial            0.00     0.00   54  69  36   2  3
  53 Delaware State       Southern            0.00     0.00  115 102 113   1  5
  54 Denver               Big East            0.00     0.00   29  16  60   7  1
  55 Detroit Mercy        Southern            0.00     0.00  103 111  81   1  7
  56 Drexel               Colonial            0.00     0.00   43  34  78   5  2
  57 Duke                 Atlantic Coast      0.00     0.00   40  27  52   6  3
  58 Duquesne             Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   79  58  87   3  3
  59 East Carolina        American            0.00     0.00   61  59  84   5  3
  60 Elon                 Colonial            0.00     0.00   70  45  93   3  2
  61 Fresno State         MPSF                0.00     0.00  104  98  97   2  5
  62 Furman               Southern            0.00     0.00   68  77  65   3  4
  63 Gardner-Webb         Big South           0.00     0.00   82  51 110   6  3
  64 George Mason         Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   35  52  34   4  3
  65 George Washington    Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00  105 116  55   0  7
  66 Hartford             America East        0.00     0.00  110 117  73   0  7
  67 Harvard              Ivy League          0.00     0.00   41  65  35   3  3
  68 Hofstra              Colonial            0.00     0.00   32  28  31   4  3
  69 Holy Cross           Patriot League      0.00     0.00   84  54 112   5  3
  70 Howard               Atlantic Sun        0.00     0.00  117 105 102   0  5
  71 Iona                 Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   89  81  94   3  4
  72 Kennesaw State       Atlantic Sun        0.00     0.00   75  72  72   3  4
  73 Kent State           Atlantic Sun        0.00     0.00  108 109  67   0  6
  74 La Salle             Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   85  82  89   3  4
  75 Lafayette            Patriot League      0.00     0.00   73  63  92   4  3
  76 Liberty              Atlantic Sun        0.00     0.00   59  66  57   3  3
  77 Long Island          Northeast           0.00     0.00   86 103  47   1  5
  78 Longwood             Big South           0.00     0.00   60  92  42   3  5
  79 Louisville           Atlantic Coast      0.00     0.00   20  47  21   5  4
  80 Manhattan            Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   92  83 100   3  4
  81 Marist               Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   66  88  46   2  4
  82 Marquette            Big East            0.00     0.00   45  60  62   6  4
  83 Massachusetts-Lowell America East        0.00     0.00   88  93  71   2  5
  84 Merrimack            Northeast           0.00     0.00  112 107  98   1  6
  85 Monmouth             Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   37  36  64   6  2
  86 Mount St. Mary's     Northeast           0.00     0.00   55  19 107   6  1
  87 Navy                 Patriot League      0.00     0.00   49  70  30   2  4
  88 New Hampshire        America East        0.00     0.00   95  74  69   1  4
  89 Niagara              Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   78  78  80   3  4
  90 Ohio State           Big Ten             0.00     0.00   31  48  29   5  4
  91 Old Dominion         Big East            0.00     0.00  107 106 109   3  6
  92 Oregon               Pacific 12          0.00     0.00   87  99  68   2  5
  93 Presbyterian         Big South           0.00     0.00  106 100 101   2  5
  94 Quinnipiac           Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   94  84 103   3  4
  95 Radford              Big South           0.00     0.00  102 113  90   2  7
  96 Robert Morris        Northeast           0.00     0.00   71  40 108   5  2
  97 Rutgers              Big Ten             0.00     0.00   34  55  32   5  4
  98 Sacred Heart         Northeast           0.00     0.00  114 104 105   1  5
  99 Saint Francis        Northeast           0.00     0.00  100  64 116   4  3
 100 Saint Joseph's       Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   47  61  54   4  3
 101 San Diego State      MPSF                0.00     0.00   24  31  25   3  2
 102 Siena                Metro Atlantic      0.00     0.00   62  79  48   3  4
 103 St. Bonaventure      Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00  109  41 118   5  2
 104 Stanford             Pacific 12          0.00     0.00   22  62  10   3  4
 105 Stetson              Atlantic Sun        0.00     0.00  111  90 106   1  4
 106 Temple               American            0.00     0.00   80  75  96   5  4
 107 Towson               Colonial            0.00     0.00   33  56  18   2  4
 108 UC Davis             MPSF                0.00     0.00   63  67  63   3  3
 109 UMBC                 America East        0.00     0.00   65  89  38   2  4
 110 Vanderbilt           American            0.00     0.00   21  49  17   4  4
 111 Vermont              America East        0.00     0.00   81  80  91   4  4
 112 Villanova            Big East            0.00     0.00   72  96  58   3  5
 113 Virginia Commonwealt Atlantic 10         0.00     0.00   97  85 104   3  4
 114 Virginia Tech        Atlantic Coast      0.00     0.00   26  24  33   7  3
 115 William & Mary       Colonial            0.00     0.00   83 101  61   2  5
 116 Winthrop             Big South           0.00     0.00  118 118 114   0  7
 117 Wofford              Southern            0.00     0.00   96 110  43   0  6
 118 Yale                 Ivy League          0.00     0.00   39  32  45   3  2