PROBABILITIES
The probabilities computed here are based on (Monte Carlo) 10,000 computer simulations as follows: Each simulation consists of assigning game scores for all unplayed games; calculating the power ratings and conference tournaments (AQs). Next, the division (NCAA) selection criteria are applied to determine the tournament selections and seeds and finally the tournament is played out based on assigning scores to all the games played up to the championship game. When assigning scores to all games, a random number generator and power rating is used to bias the outcome of each game score. Each simulation creates conference AQs, tournament invitations and championships for each team and dividing these totals by 10,000 (and multiplying x 100) yields the probablity for all teams. The list below includes the probability in per cent of automatic qualifying (AQ) as a conference winner (D1 & D3), selection to the NCAA tournament and winning the tournament. For a completedescription of the method, click here Rank Team Name Conference PR ------------ Probability ------------ AQ % Tournament % Champion % W - L 1 Salisbury Capital 95.25 22.00 100.00 4.90 3 2 2 Washington & Lee Old Dominion 99.10 16.70 99.80 7.00 5 1 3 St. Mary's (MD) Capital 92.88 19.30 99.70 3.20 5 2 4 Gettysburg Centennial 96.75 15.40 99.20 5.20 4 1 5 Mary Washington Capital 92.20 11.70 99.00 4.50 5 2 6 Trinity (CT) NESCAC 82.10 6.90 97.90 1.00 2 1 7 Catholic (DC) Landmark 94.31 25.20 97.00 5.20 3 0 8 Franklin & Marshal Centennial 96.90 22.40 97.00 6.50 4 0 9 York Capital 96.54 27.70 96.50 5.40 4 1 10 Christopher Newpor Capital 87.70 9.40 95.70 2.20 3 4 11 Amherst NESCAC 91.09 12.30 92.80 2.60 3 1 12 Colorado College Independent 82.67 0.00 90.70 0.20 3 2 13 Hamilton NESCAC 80.02 0.70 88.50 1.10 0 2 14 William Smith Liberty Leag 90.55 17.70 85.70 1.60 3 2 15 Washington College Centennial 89.38 7.60 85.60 1.30 2 3 16 Denison North Coast 90.47 22.30 84.20 2.70 1 3 17 Mount Union Ohio 91.57 24.20 83.40 2.20 3 0 18 Tufts NESCAC 94.38 21.40 81.30 2.30 3 0 19 McDaniel Centennial 84.15 6.00 80.60 0.80 1 3 20 Colby NESCAC 86.32 4.10 79.20 0.90 4 1 21 Lynchburg Old Dominion 85.26 10.20 78.30 0.90 3 2 22 St. John Fisher Empire Eight 99.90 16.20 77.60 5.40 3 0 23 Bowdoin NESCAC 91.04 10.30 77.00 1.90 2 1 24 Cortland SUNYAC 93.55 20.90 76.80 2.20 1 2 25 Connecticut Colleg NESCAC 86.37 5.10 76.60 0.70 3 1 26 Scranton Landmark 83.63 8.00 76.30 1.00 2 4 27 Wesleyan (CT) NESCAC 88.95 8.80 74.20 0.60 4 0 28 Dickinson Centennial 90.47 13.70 73.70 1.70 3 3 29 College of New Jer NJAC 96.21 27.30 71.30 3.40 4 0 30 Williams NESCAC 83.08 1.50 71.30 0.80 1 2 31 Union Liberty Leag 84.28 4.10 69.90 1.10 2 2 32 Middlebury NESCAC 96.59 27.60 65.50 2.10 3 0 33 Haverford Centennial 89.91 9.50 62.50 1.30 3 2 34 Chicago CCIW 94.76 23.10 61.10 2.30 3 0 35 Virginia Wesleyan Old Dominion 72.65 5.30 58.10 0.60 1 6 36 RIT Liberty Leag 86.86 7.60 57.60 0.70 2 1 37 Bates NESCAC 82.97 1.30 57.30 0.70 2 3 38 Shenandoah Old Dominion 91.94 14.70 52.40 1.60 7 0 39 Baldwin Wallace Ohio 76.27 5.90 45.70 0.60 2 4 40 Claremont-Mudd-Scr SCIAC 85.55 0.00 44.10 0.20 5 1 41 Ursinus Centennial 76.82 4.60 41.20 0.10 0 5 42 Roanoke Old Dominion 88.89 10.20 41.00 0.70 3 2 43 Clarkson Liberty Leag 85.04 5.30 38.90 0.30 2 2 44 MIT NEWMAC 81.75 14.50 37.40 0.30 2 3 45 Drew Landmark 87.44 20.00 35.50 0.70 3 1 46 Brockport SUNYAC 89.24 19.30 35.20 0.20 2 1 47 Springfield NEWMAC 79.50 10.00 34.90 0.50 2 3 48 Ithaca Liberty Leag 94.46 22.90 34.30 1.30 5 0 49 Rensselaer Liberty Leag 86.91 9.00 33.90 0.40 3 0 50 Pomona-Pitzer SCIAC 87.16 0.00 32.70 0.70 7 0 51 Illinois Wesleyan CCIW 79.55 12.30 30.50 0.20 2 5 52 Randolph-Macon Old Dominion 82.18 6.70 29.00 0.20 4 3 53 Kean NJAC 84.49 14.70 28.80 0.20 3 1 54 Oswego SUNYAC 80.62 10.00 28.30 0.00 2 2 55 Geneseo SUNYAC 88.77 15.00 25.40 0.50 4 1 56 Skidmore Liberty Leag 78.79 2.00 24.40 0.00 0 5 57 Rochester Liberty Leag 85.52 7.60 23.30 0.10 2 1 58 Capital Ohio 84.69 15.00 22.90 0.20 3 2 59 John Carroll Ohio 85.30 18.10 20.20 0.10 4 2 60 Centre SAA 76.88 18.60 20.10 0.00 3 5 61 Messiah Commonwealth 87.82 22.50 19.00 0.20 4 2 62 Moravian Landmark 84.03 13.60 18.80 0.10 4 2 63 Bridgewater Old Dominion 78.05 8.60 18.50 0.00 3 3 64 Nazareth Empire Eight 80.31 16.80 18.30 0.20 2 4 65 Swarthmore Centennial 84.26 7.80 16.00 0.10 4 1 66 Arcadia Commonwealth 79.90 9.30 13.50 0.20 3 3 67 Montclair State NJAC 86.90 18.70 13.50 0.00 2 2 68 St. Joseph's (NY) Skyline 69.83 7.30 13.30 0.00 0 3 69 Northwestern (MN) Independent 64.45 0.00 12.80 0.30 0 4 70 Buffalo State SUNYAC 73.74 5.20 12.40 0.20 1 2 71 Neumann CSAC 68.50 2.20 10.80 0.00 0 4 72 Rowan NJAC 82.72 9.80 10.10 0.10 2 3 73 Westfield State MASCAC 82.76 22.50 9.90 0.00 4 1 74 Wheaton NEWMAC 84.91 23.40 8.70 0.10 4 1 75 St. Lawrence Liberty Leag 73.40 3.40 8.20 0.00 1 1 76 Birmingham-Souther SAA 73.37 8.00 7.50 0.00 4 4 77 DePauw North Coast 82.12 10.00 7.10 0.00 4 2 78 St. Mary's (IN) 75.13 0.00 7.00 0.00 2 3 79 Fredonia SUNYAC 73.52 4.00 6.70 0.00 2 1 80 Sewanee SAA 77.72 26.10 6.50 0.00 4 5 81 Rutgers-Camden NJAC 67.12 7.50 6.40 0.00 0 2 82 Johnson & Wales Great Northe 73.85 12.70 6.30 0.00 1 4 83 Vassar Liberty Leag 88.69 17.80 6.20 0.30 4 0 84 King's Freedom 77.02 22.40 5.90 0.00 1 4 85 Albion MIAA 82.70 26.80 5.80 0.10 4 2 86 Merchant Marine Skyline 75.65 13.10 5.50 0.00 1 1 87 Canton Independent 76.65 0.00 5.40 0.00 0 3 88 Rhodes SAA 86.61 33.20 4.70 0.10 6 3 89 Cabrini CSAC 83.27 4.20 4.50 0.00 2 1 90 Wittenberg North Coast 74.13 5.50 4.50 0.00 2 5 91 Bridgewater State MASCAC 81.14 20.20 4.20 0.00 2 3 92 Marymount Capital 84.69 2.20 4.20 0.00 7 0 93 Stevens Empire Eight 86.98 0.00 4.20 0.00 3 2 94 Occidental SCIAC 84.87 0.00 4.10 0.00 5 3 95 Widener Commonwealth 84.12 14.50 4.00 0.10 3 2 96 New Paltz SUNYAC 76.70 6.90 3.90 0.20 2 3 97 Muhlenberg Centennial 59.24 8.10 3.70 0.00 0 1 98 Southern Virginia Capital 75.98 7.70 3.70 0.00 5 0 99 Kenyon North Coast 83.47 16.80 3.40 0.00 4 2 100 Keuka NEAC 95.95 11.30 3.30 0.20 1 0 101 Stockton NJAC 84.20 13.50 3.30 0.00 4 0 102 Wisconsin-RiverFal Independent 86.34 0.00 3.30 0.00 3 1 103 Franklin Heartland 61.65 9.00 3.10 0.00 0 3 104 Hope MIAA 75.95 12.30 3.10 0.00 2 2 105 Whittier SCIAC 67.87 0.00 3.00 0.00 1 5 106 Bard Liberty Leag 71.20 2.60 2.90 0.00 3 0 107 Lebanon Valley Commonwealth 81.08 11.10 2.80 0.00 0 3 108 North Central CCIW 88.10 22.30 2.70 0.00 5 0 109 Ferrum Old Dominion 70.73 9.70 2.60 0.00 4 0 110 George Fox Northwest 81.51 33.50 2.60 0.00 2 1 111 Otterbein Ohio 78.19 12.00 2.50 0.00 4 2 112 Ohio Northern Ohio 76.91 9.30 2.30 0.00 3 2 113 Redlands SCIAC 74.16 0.00 2.20 0.00 2 4 114 Wooster North Coast 78.11 7.80 2.20 0.00 2 2 115 Farmingdale State Skyline 75.55 10.60 2.10 0.00 2 3 116 Norwich Great Northe 65.27 5.20 2.10 0.00 0 4 117 Plymouth State Little East 72.70 15.10 2.00 0.00 1 5 118 Bryn Mawr Centennial 79.73 4.90 1.80 0.10 6 0 119 Alvernia Commonwealth 77.15 6.00 1.70 0.00 2 3 120 Ohio Wesleyan North Coast 75.36 5.80 1.70 0.00 2 3 121 Babson NEWMAC 81.00 11.40 1.50 0.00 2 3 122 Carthage CCIW 78.84 9.80 1.50 0.00 4 3 123 Oneonta SUNYAC 83.88 10.40 1.50 0.00 3 2 124 Chapman SCIAC 76.83 0.00 1.40 0.10 3 4 125 Whitman Northwest 68.72 1.90 1.40 0.00 0 4 126 Calvin MIAA 81.62 21.90 1.30 0.00 2 0 127 Hiram North Coast 62.90 5.20 1.20 0.00 1 6 128 Thomas More Heartland 54.65 0.00 1.20 0.00 0 4 129 Elmhurst CCIW 58.65 9.20 1.10 0.00 0 4 130 Juniata Landmark 77.49 6.40 1.10 0.00 4 2 131 Carroll CCIW 82.10 14.70 1.00 0.00 4 2 132 Coast Guard NEWMAC 83.03 19.70 1.00 0.00 3 2 133 Oberlin North Coast 81.87 17.10 1.00 0.00 4 2 134 Hood Commonwealth 73.53 4.00 0.90 0.00 3 4 135 Lycoming Commonwealth 71.64 3.60 0.90 0.00 1 3 136 MCLA MASCAC 0.00 7.20 0.90 0.00 0 0 137 Roger Williams Comm. Coast 83.24 23.90 0.90 0.00 2 3 138 Rivier Great Northe 55.96 3.40 0.80 0.00 0 2 139 Aurora Midwest 89.02 21.20 0.70 0.00 3 1 140 Eastern Mennonite Old Dominion 62.56 4.20 0.70 0.00 1 1 141 Gwynedd-Mercy CSAC 75.70 2.60 0.70 0.00 3 2 142 Marywood CSAC 85.88 4.60 0.70 0.00 4 1 143 Meredith USA South At 83.72 29.00 0.70 0.00 3 4 144 Stevenson Commonwealth 85.07 19.40 0.70 0.00 2 2 145 Augustana CCIW 72.84 8.60 0.60 0.00 2 3 146 Clark NEWMAC 72.77 4.30 0.60 0.00 3 2 147 Emerson NEWMAC 73.02 3.40 0.60 0.00 2 1 148 Goucher Landmark 76.32 4.60 0.60 0.00 4 2 149 Keene State Little East 79.24 27.70 0.60 0.00 1 2 150 Muskingum Ohio 64.69 4.60 0.60 0.00 3 3 151 Simmons Great Northe 81.80 19.10 0.60 0.00 5 0 152 Elizabethtown Landmark 79.60 7.20 0.50 0.00 4 2 153 Guilford Old Dominion 79.41 7.00 0.50 0.00 6 1 154 Mount Saint Vincen Skyline 76.25 22.40 0.50 0.00 1 2 155 Ramapo NJAC 74.45 8.50 0.50 0.00 2 2 156 Allegheny North Coast 80.78 9.50 0.40 0.00 3 1 157 Anderson Heartland 61.46 5.70 0.40 0.00 0 3 158 Anna Maria Great Northe 69.53 7.50 0.40 0.00 2 1 159 Kalamazoo MIAA 78.92 15.80 0.40 0.00 3 2 160 Alfred Empire Eight 67.04 12.20 0.30 0.00 0 2 161 Colby-Sawyer North Atlant 71.43 0.90 0.30 0.00 2 2 162 Framingham State MASCAC 78.59 13.70 0.30 0.00 2 2 163 Heidelberg Ohio 76.66 6.80 0.30 0.00 4 0 164 Saint Joseph's (ME Great Northe 67.41 6.00 0.30 0.00 3 1 165 Susquehanna Landmark 84.94 15.00 0.30 0.00 3 4 166 Transylvania Heartland 81.06 31.10 0.30 0.00 3 2 167 Wilkes Freedom 69.81 6.60 0.30 0.00 2 5 168 Becker NECC 0.00 13.00 0.20 0.00 0 0 169 Hartwick Empire Eight 69.33 14.50 0.20 0.00 1 2 170 Maine Maritime North Atlant 63.10 12.90 0.20 0.00 0 2 171 Manhattanville Freedom 78.55 0.00 0.20 0.00 4 1 172 Misericordia Freedom 70.80 9.10 0.20 0.00 1 1 173 Mitchell NECC 59.08 17.50 0.20 0.00 0 2 174 Potsdam SUNYAC 72.86 3.20 0.20 0.00 3 2 175 Saint Joseph Great Northe 70.33 8.30 0.20 0.00 2 1 176 Salem State MASCAC 68.25 8.20 0.20 0.00 1 3 177 Wentworth Tech Comm. Coast 66.16 7.70 0.20 0.00 0 4 178 Wesley Capital 73.03 0.00 0.20 0.00 4 1 179 California Luthera SCIAC 59.87 0.00 0.10 0.00 0 6 180 Endicott Comm. Coast 82.27 17.20 0.10 0.00 4 0 181 FDU-Florham Freedom 77.69 29.50 0.10 0.00 2 3 182 Franciscan Independent 63.63 0.00 0.10 0.00 0 4 183 Hanover Heartland 74.47 15.90 0.10 0.00 3 3 184 Immaculata CSAC 64.91 6.80 0.10 0.00 1 4 185 Marietta Ohio 72.90 4.10 0.10 0.00 5 1 186 Maritime Skyline 77.99 24.90 0.10 0.00 4 1 187 Mass.-Dartmouth Little East 71.89 10.60 0.10 0.00 2 2 188 Mount Aloysius 58.52 0.00 0.10 0.00 1 4 189 Mount Holyoke NEWMAC 74.72 7.30 0.10 0.00 2 2 190 Southwestern Independent 73.39 0.00 0.10 0.00 4 3 191 Trine MIAA 73.54 6.20 0.10 0.00 1 6 192 Adrian MIAA 74.97 10.40 0.00 0.00 2 2 193 Albertus Magnus Great Northe 64.34 3.60 0.00 0.00 1 1 194 Albright Commonwealth 80.56 9.60 0.00 0.00 4 3 195 Alma MIAA 72.46 6.60 0.00 0.00 2 2 196 Augsburg Midwest 74.72 7.30 0.00 0.00 1 2 197 Averett USA South At 67.82 4.10 0.00 0.00 1 5 198 Bay Path NECC 57.94 13.50 0.00 0.00 0 2 199 Beloit Midwest 74.19 6.20 0.00 0.00 3 2 200 Benedictine Midwest 71.13 1.80 0.00 0.00 3 3 201 Berry SAA 62.97 0.60 0.00 0.00 2 8 202 Bethany President's 58.46 7.90 0.00 0.00 0 3 203 Brevard USA South At 62.42 1.50 0.00 0.00 0 4 204 Bryn Athyn NEAC 56.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 1 205 Castleton North Atlant 63.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 4 206 Cazenovia NEAC 67.20 10.90 0.00 0.00 0 1 207 Cedar Crest CSAC 69.84 21.50 0.00 0.00 1 1 208 Centenary CSAC 60.39 15.10 0.00 0.00 0 3 209 Chatham President's 70.40 15.40 0.00 0.00 2 1 210 Concordia-Chicago Midwest 79.31 17.00 0.00 0.00 5 0 211 Concordia-Wisconsi Midwest 72.69 1.50 0.00 0.00 0 3 212 Cornell (IA) Midwest 76.39 8.30 0.00 0.00 2 2 213 Curry Comm. Coast 64.28 6.60 0.00 0.00 1 3 214 Dallas Independent 51.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 4 215 Dean NECC 67.81 32.40 0.00 0.00 0 1 216 Delaware Valley Freedom 60.40 5.80 0.00 0.00 1 3 217 DeSales Freedom 76.28 14.40 0.00 0.00 3 3 218 D'Youville Independent 73.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 1 219 Earlham Heartland 77.25 21.20 0.00 0.00 4 1 220 Eastern Freedom 71.72 12.20 0.00 0.00 2 1 221 Eastern Connecticu Little East 68.82 9.90 0.00 0.00 2 2 222 Elmira Empire Eight 62.64 5.90 0.00 0.00 1 4 223 Elms NECC 65.38 23.60 0.00 0.00 0 2 224 Emmanuel Great Northe 74.36 15.20 0.00 0.00 1 0 225 Fitchburg State MASCAC 67.12 7.00 0.00 0.00 3 1 226 Gordon Comm. Coast 60.58 3.20 0.00 0.00 0 5 227 Greensboro USA South At 67.89 11.10 0.00 0.00 3 1 228 Hamline Midwest 84.54 20.80 0.00 0.00 3 0 229 Hendrix SAA 65.84 5.30 0.00 0.00 3 3 230 Hilbert NEAC 50.27 6.00 0.00 0.00 0 2 231 Hollins Independent 63.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 2 232 Houghton Empire Eight 66.99 8.20 0.00 0.00 3 2 233 Huntingdon USA South At 63.09 3.10 0.00 0.00 3 4 234 Husson North Atlant 63.41 18.80 0.00 0.00 0 3 235 Illinois Tech Midwest 70.82 1.30 0.00 0.00 0 2 236 Johnson & Wales (C SCAC 58.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 3 237 Keystone CSAC 59.39 10.90 0.00 0.00 0 3 238 Lancaster Bible NEAC 59.19 5.10 0.00 0.00 0 4 239 Lasell Great Northe 74.74 19.00 0.00 0.00 2 0 240 Linfield Northwest 73.49 18.30 0.00 0.00 2 1 241 Loras Midwest 76.57 8.90 0.00 0.00 3 1 242 Lyndon State North Atlant 0.00 10.40 0.00 0.00 0 0 243 Maine-Farmington North Atlant 68.51 33.60 0.00 0.00 1 1 244 Marian (WI) Midwest 60.34 1.80 0.00 0.00 0 3 245 Mass. Maritime MASCAC 77.05 11.00 0.00 0.00 3 1 246 Medaille NEAC 68.06 14.90 0.00 0.00 2 2 247 Methodist USA South At 67.95 14.30 0.00 0.00 2 3 248 Monmouth (IL) Midwest 71.53 3.10 0.00 0.00 1 2 249 Morrisville NEAC 73.18 18.30 0.00 0.00 2 2 250 Mount Saint Mary Skyline 64.36 6.90 0.00 0.00 1 3 251 Mount St. Joseph Heartland 62.86 17.10 0.00 0.00 1 0 252 New England Colleg North Atlant 68.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 1 253 Nichols Comm. Coast 61.44 4.30 0.00 0.00 0 2 254 No. Carolina Wesle USA South At 57.84 1.80 0.00 0.00 1 6 255 Notre Dame (MD) CSAC 75.43 25.50 0.00 0.00 1 2 256 Oglethorpe SAA 67.80 8.20 0.00 0.00 4 2 257 Old Westbury Skyline 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 258 Olivet MIAA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 259 Pacific (OR) Northwest 69.85 6.00 0.00 0.00 1 3 260 Penn State-Abingto NEAC 60.43 7.70 0.00 0.00 0 2 261 Pfeiffer USA South At 69.38 22.50 0.00 0.00 2 2 262 Piedmont USA South At 69.14 9.20 0.00 0.00 3 3 263 Plattsburgh State SUNYAC 76.48 5.10 0.00 0.00 4 0 264 Puget Sound Northwest 69.78 9.00 0.00 0.00 2 1 265 Purchase Skyline 76.21 14.80 0.00 0.00 1 0 266 Randolph Old Dominion 56.78 6.70 0.00 0.00 1 3 267 Regis (MA) NECC 76.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 3 0 268 Rhode Island Colle Little East 64.49 7.70 0.00 0.00 0 3 269 Rosemont CSAC 54.29 6.60 0.00 0.00 0 2 270 Sage Empire Eight 57.20 7.30 0.00 0.00 0 3 271 Saint Vincent President's 77.76 28.10 0.00 0.00 3 0 272 Salem 53.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 7 273 Salve Regina Comm. Coast 75.93 8.80 0.00 0.00 2 1 274 Smith NEWMAC 70.58 1.70 0.00 0.00 2 2 275 Southern Maine Little East 68.28 8.80 0.00 0.00 1 2 276 Southern Vermont NECC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 277 SUNY Poly NEAC 69.30 17.40 0.00 0.00 2 1 278 Sweet Briar Old Dominion 56.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 7 279 Thiel President's 64.70 9.80 0.00 0.00 1 5 280 Thomas North Atlant 64.94 23.40 0.00 0.00 0 2 281 U. of New England Comm. Coast 76.47 11.60 0.00 0.00 2 2 282 Utica Empire Eight 83.75 18.90 0.00 0.00 4 0 283 Wartburg Midwest 70.22 0.80 0.00 0.00 0 2 284 Washington & Jeffe President's 75.29 19.70 0.00 0.00 3 4 285 Waynesburg President's 54.23 7.60 0.00 0.00 1 1 286 Wellesley NEWMAC 72.81 4.30 0.00 0.00 1 3 287 Wells NEAC 66.44 8.40 0.00 0.00 1 1 288 Western Connecticu Little East 75.63 20.20 0.00 0.00 2 1 289 Western New Englan Comm. Coast 77.94 16.70 0.00 0.00 1 3 290 Westminster (PA) President's 67.12 11.50 0.00 0.00 1 6 291 Whitworth Northwest 73.11 5.00 0.00 0.00 1 2 292 Willamette Northwest 76.83 26.30 0.00 0.00 2 1 293 William Peace USA South At 63.15 3.40 0.00 0.00 2 2 294 Wisconsin-La Cross 68.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 5 295 Worcester State MASCAC 72.02 10.20 0.00 0.00 2 3