PROBABILITIES
The probabilities computed here are based on (Monte Carlo) 10,000 computer simulations as follows: Each simulation consists of assigning game scores for all unplayed games; calculating the power ratings and conference tournaments (AQs). Next, the division (NCAA) selection criteria are applied to determine the tournament selections and seeds and finally the tournament is played out based on assigning scores to all the games played up to the championship game. When assigning scores to all games, a random number generator and power rating is used to bias the outcome of each game score. Each simulation creates conference AQs, tournament invitations and championships for each team and dividing these totals by 10,000 (and multiplying x 100) yields the probablity for all teams. The list below includes the probability in per cent of automatic qualifying (AQ) as a conference winner (D1 & D3), selection to the NCAA tournament and winning the tournament. For a completedescription of the method, click here Rank Team Name Conference PR ------------ Probability ------------ AQ % Tournament % Champion % W - L 1 Lindenwood Rocky Mounta 94.66 0.00 98.90 7.20 9 1 2 Indianapolis Great Lakes 94.91 0.00 92.80 10.70 7 1 3 Tampa Sunshine 91.31 0.00 86.00 4.70 6 1 4 East Stroudsburg PSAC 94.42 0.00 77.10 6.00 4 1 5 Le Moyne Northeast 10 99.90 0.00 75.20 11.30 4 0 6 West Chester PSAC 95.05 0.00 75.00 7.30 2 0 7 Rollins Sunshine 91.14 0.00 72.90 3.30 6 1 8 Concordia-St. Paul Great Lakes 88.13 0.00 63.50 1.90 5 2 9 Saint Anselm Northeast 10 93.36 0.00 60.80 4.50 4 0 10 Queens South Atlant 96.22 0.00 58.30 7.10 5 0 11 Florida Southern Sunshine 93.72 0.00 56.80 3.90 6 3 12 Mercy East Coast 92.69 0.00 53.90 3.10 4 1 13 Grand Valley State Great Lakes 94.66 0.00 53.40 4.60 3 1 14 Mercyhurst PSAC 88.42 0.00 51.30 2.00 3 1 15 Bloomsburg PSAC 89.33 0.00 50.90 1.70 4 1 16 Adelphi Northeast 10 93.13 0.00 48.10 3.90 3 1 17 Embry-Riddle 87.29 0.00 43.20 1.50 5 2 18 Florida Tech Sunshine 84.09 0.00 33.40 0.70 6 2 19 Millersville PSAC 88.74 0.00 31.00 1.30 3 2 20 Lock Haven PSAC 88.28 0.00 30.80 1.20 3 2 21 Seton Hill PSAC 84.79 0.00 25.20 0.30 3 3 22 Saint Michael's Northeast 10 0.00 0.00 24.90 0.60 0 0 23 Saint Leo Sunshine 85.18 0.00 24.00 0.50 4 3 24 Assumption Northeast 10 88.61 0.00 23.30 0.80 3 0 25 Bentley Northeast 10 92.43 0.00 22.70 0.90 2 1 26 Davenport GLIAC 87.82 0.00 19.90 1.20 4 1 27 Pace Northeast 10 91.04 0.00 18.70 0.90 1 1 28 New Haven Northeast 10 87.81 0.00 17.70 0.60 2 0 29 Stonehill Northeast 10 91.92 0.00 15.10 0.80 2 2 30 McKendree Great Lakes 81.62 0.00 14.30 0.60 4 3 31 Shippensburg PSAC 85.78 0.00 14.10 0.20 3 3 32 Kutztown PSAC 83.53 0.00 14.00 0.20 2 3 33 Roberts Wesleyan East Coast 87.61 0.00 13.10 0.30 4 1 34 Regis (CO) Rocky Mounta 87.86 0.00 10.00 0.40 2 2 35 Findlay Great Lakes 80.58 0.00 9.90 0.30 2 3 36 Gannon PSAC 83.16 0.00 9.60 0.00 4 2 37 Edinboro PSAC 82.14 0.00 9.10 0.30 2 2 38 S. New Hampshire Northeast 10 86.18 0.00 8.10 0.20 2 1 39 American Internati Northeast 10 80.35 0.00 7.40 0.50 3 1 40 Indiana (PA) PSAC 81.52 0.00 7.10 0.20 2 2 41 Limestone Carolinas 83.47 0.00 7.10 0.10 6 2 42 Walsh Great Lakes 80.22 0.00 7.10 0.10 2 3 43 Lenoir-Rhyne South Atlant 81.95 0.00 5.10 0.20 4 2 44 Lake Erie Great Midwes 0.00 0.00 4.90 0.10 0 0 45 Northern Michigan Great Lakes 76.27 0.00 4.80 0.10 2 3 46 Slippery Rock PSAC 82.34 0.00 4.60 0.40 2 3 47 Shepherd Mountain Eas 76.95 0.00 4.40 0.00 3 2 48 Alabama-Huntsville Gulf South 85.45 0.00 3.40 0.00 5 2 49 Franklin Pierce Northeast 10 79.07 0.00 2.90 0.20 2 2 50 Upper Iowa Great Lakes 63.44 0.00 2.50 0.00 0 1 51 Lee Gulf South 80.50 0.00 2.40 0.00 6 2 52 Maryville (MO) Great Lakes 73.52 0.00 2.30 0.20 3 2 53 Bridgeport East Coast 82.64 0.00 2.10 0.10 5 1 54 Lynn Sunshine 82.03 0.00 2.10 0.10 4 3 55 Rockhurst Rocky Mounta 82.10 0.00 2.10 0.10 4 4 56 Belmont Abbey Carolinas 84.32 0.00 2.00 0.10 7 2 57 Tiffin Great Lakes 75.04 0.00 2.00 0.10 1 4 58 Mount Olive Carolinas 89.19 0.00 1.90 0.00 7 0 59 UVa-Wise Mountain Eas 77.86 0.00 1.80 0.00 2 5 60 Molloy East Coast 83.95 0.00 1.70 0.00 2 3 61 Saint Rose Northeast 10 74.73 0.00 1.70 0.00 2 3 62 Southern Connectic Northeast 10 81.21 0.00 1.60 0.00 2 3 63 Lewis Great Lakes 73.94 0.00 1.20 0.00 2 6 64 Colorado Mesa Rocky Mounta 81.77 0.00 1.10 0.10 2 1 65 Ashland Great Lakes 71.96 0.00 1.00 0.10 2 4 66 NYIT East Coast 88.56 0.00 0.90 0.20 3 2 67 Fort Lewis Rocky Mounta 79.78 0.00 0.70 0.00 2 0 68 Lincoln Memorial South Atlant 76.89 0.00 0.50 0.00 2 3 69 Wingate South Atlant 82.69 0.00 0.40 0.00 3 5 70 Alderson Broaddus Great Midwes 67.96 0.00 0.30 0.00 2 2 71 Ursuline Great Midwes 66.54 0.00 0.30 0.00 0 2 72 CSU-Pueblo Rocky Mounta 78.99 0.00 0.20 0.00 1 4 73 North Greenville Carolinas 77.83 0.00 0.20 0.00 3 6 74 Notre Dame (OH) Mountain Eas 81.90 0.00 0.20 0.00 2 3 75 Shorter Gulf South 79.78 0.00 0.20 0.00 0 5 76 Westminster Rocky Mounta 75.03 0.00 0.20 0.00 0 1 77 Adams State Rocky Mounta 56.60 0.00 0.10 0.00 0 3 78 Colo.-Colorado Spr Rocky Mounta 78.92 0.00 0.10 0.00 3 4 79 St. Thomas Aquinas East Coast 80.88 0.00 0.10 0.00 5 2 80 Thomas Jefferson CACC South 85.59 0.00 0.10 0.00 0 4 81 Wilmington CACC South 77.74 0.00 0.10 0.00 1 6 82 Young Harris Gulf South 78.61 0.00 0.10 0.00 3 5 83 Barton Carolinas 70.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 4 84 Caldwell CACC North 73.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 4 85 Catawba South Atlant 72.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 4 86 Charleston Mountain Eas 67.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 2 87 Chestnut Hill CACC South 69.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 4 88 Chowan Carolinas 63.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 6 89 Coker South Atlant 66.53 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 3 90 Converse Carolinas 60.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 6 91 Davis & Elkins Great Midwes 70.67 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 3 92 Dominican CACC North 68.45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 4 93 Emmanuel (GA) Carolinas 62.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 6 94 Erskine Carolinas 68.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 8 95 Felician CACC North 60.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 1 96 Frostburg State Mountain Eas 74.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 2 97 Georgian Court CACC North 83.59 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 6 98 Holy Family CACC South 73.24 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 3 99 Lander Gulf South 71.61 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 5 100 Lees-McRae Carolinas 71.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 4 101 Mars Hill South Atlant 74.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 4 102 Montevallo Gulf South 71.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 4 103 Newberry South Atlant 73.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 5 104 Nyack CACC North 63.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 1 105 Oklahoma Baptist Rocky Mounta 66.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 5 106 Palm Beach Atlanti Sunshine 79.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 5 3 107 Post CACC North 74.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 1 6 108 Quincy 70.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 3 4 109 Southern Wesleyan Carolinas 66.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 4 110 Tusculum South Atlant 75.69 0.00 0.00 0.00 3 3 111 University of DC East Coast 64.92 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 3 112 Urbana Mountain Eas 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 113 West Virginia Wesl Mountain Eas 59.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 4