PROBABILITIES
The probabilities computed here are based on (Monte Carlo) 10,000 computer simulations as follows: Each simulation consists of assigning game scores for all unplayed games; calculating the power ratings and conference tournaments (AQs). Next, the division (NCAA) selection criteria are applied to determine the tournament selections and seeds and finally the tournament is played out based on assigning scores to all the games played up to the championship game. When assigning scores to all games, a random number generator and power rating is used to bias the outcome of each game score. Each simulation creates conference AQs, tournament invitations and championships for each team and dividing these totals by 10,000 (and multiplying x 100) yields the probablity for all teams. The list below includes the probability in per cent of automatic qualifying (AQ) as a conference winner (D1 & D3), selection to the NCAA tournament and winning the tournament. For a completedescription of the method, click here Rank Team Name Conference PR ------------ Probability ------------ AQ % Tournament % Champion % W - L 1 North Carolina Atlantic Coa 99.90 32.70 98.70 12.40 7 0 2 Syracuse Atlantic Coa 95.34 20.70 96.80 10.40 7 1 3 Notre Dame Atlantic Coa 93.87 21.00 96.60 9.20 7 0 4 Loyola Patriot Leag 96.06 22.00 90.20 10.10 5 0 5 Dartmouth Ivy League 89.69 20.10 82.50 3.70 5 0 6 Southern Californi Pacific 12 90.61 35.60 79.20 4.90 6 0 7 Florida American 89.33 29.50 77.20 3.80 6 2 8 Northwestern Big Ten 93.53 25.90 74.00 5.30 4 3 9 Michigan Big Ten 91.58 21.60 73.80 3.70 5 1 10 Army Patriot Leag 84.61 13.50 70.20 1.60 7 0 11 Virginia Tech Atlantic Coa 89.85 10.30 67.50 3.30 7 3 12 James Madison Colonial 91.85 26.60 65.40 3.90 5 1 13 Penn Ivy League 89.79 31.70 62.40 1.60 4 1 14 Boston College Atlantic Coa 88.95 5.50 58.30 1.80 4 3 15 Penn State Big Ten 88.29 12.90 52.40 1.80 5 2 16 Virginia Atlantic Coa 88.77 1.80 50.40 1.90 5 3 17 Stony Brook America East 92.01 23.30 49.00 3.20 4 1 18 Duke Atlantic Coa 87.53 6.50 45.60 1.50 6 3 19 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 88.94 21.20 45.60 1.20 4 1 20 Lehigh Patriot Leag 85.59 16.90 45.10 1.80 6 2 21 Maryland Big Ten 90.53 15.00 44.40 1.70 3 3 22 Denver Big East 90.15 28.10 43.40 1.90 7 1 23 Colorado Pacific 12 87.45 18.80 39.10 0.60 3 2 24 Louisville Atlantic Coa 86.41 1.50 37.90 1.00 5 4 25 Stanford Pacific 12 89.83 22.70 35.80 0.70 3 4 26 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 86.29 28.30 35.30 0.40 3 1 27 Brown Ivy League 86.28 5.30 33.30 0.80 4 3 28 Hofstra Colonial 86.71 19.30 31.40 0.60 4 3 29 Albany America East 88.53 18.40 29.90 0.60 3 2 30 Connecticut American 86.36 23.00 29.10 0.40 5 2 31 High Point Big South 83.75 27.00 28.80 0.00 1 4 32 Johns Hopkins Big Ten 86.65 10.10 27.80 1.00 4 3 33 Princeton Ivy League 86.01 15.70 27.80 0.40 3 2 34 Mercer Southern 79.82 26.80 27.00 0.00 5 2 35 Vanderbilt American 85.24 16.50 26.80 0.30 4 5 36 Cornell Ivy League 82.83 14.20 26.10 0.20 4 2 37 Georgetown Big East 85.37 20.50 25.70 0.30 4 3 38 Monmouth Metro Atlant 82.52 23.90 25.10 0.10 6 2 39 Wagner Northeast 80.08 23.10 23.10 0.00 3 4 40 Longwood Big South 76.68 22.40 22.40 0.00 3 5 41 Central Michigan Southern 77.64 21.00 21.20 0.00 2 3 42 Marquette Big East 81.85 20.10 21.10 0.10 6 4 43 Fairfield Metro Atlant 80.52 20.40 20.40 0.00 2 5 44 Davidson Atlantic 10 83.78 18.00 20.10 0.10 2 4 45 Towson Colonial 86.60 16.50 18.80 0.10 2 4 46 Arizona State Pacific 12 84.02 11.90 18.60 0.10 5 3 47 Bryant Northeast 79.70 18.20 18.20 0.00 4 2 48 Coastal Carolina Atlantic Sun 78.78 18.20 18.20 0.00 2 3 49 Navy Patriot Leag 84.26 12.40 17.80 0.10 2 4 50 Furman Southern 77.28 17.50 17.50 0.00 3 4 51 Delaware Colonial 83.56 16.30 16.90 0.00 2 3 52 Richmond Atlantic 10 88.06 16.10 16.80 0.00 7 0 53 Robert Morris Northeast 78.96 16.80 16.80 0.00 5 2 54 Liberty Atlantic Sun 78.09 15.20 16.70 0.10 3 3 55 Vermont America East 79.18 15.80 15.80 0.00 4 4 56 Detroit Mercy Southern 67.82 14.70 14.70 0.00 1 7 57 Gardner-Webb Big South 74.52 14.40 14.40 0.00 6 3 58 Ohio State Big Ten 81.52 7.20 14.40 0.20 5 4 59 Temple American 79.66 14.20 14.40 0.00 5 4 60 Siena Metro Atlant 79.58 14.30 14.30 0.00 3 4 61 Holy Cross Patriot Leag 81.00 7.50 13.30 0.10 5 3 62 East Carolina American 79.08 9.50 13.20 0.10 5 3 63 Villanova Big East 79.40 12.50 12.60 0.00 3 5 64 Boston University Patriot Leag 80.29 6.40 12.50 0.30 3 3 65 Campbell Big South 74.02 12.50 12.50 0.00 2 7 66 Rutgers Big Ten 82.72 7.30 12.50 0.30 5 4 67 George Mason Atlantic 10 83.09 11.20 12.30 0.00 4 3 68 UMBC America East 77.60 12.20 12.30 0.00 2 4 69 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 78.14 11.90 11.90 0.00 6 1 70 Wofford Southern 66.98 11.80 11.80 0.00 0 6 71 Colgate Patriot Leag 78.91 7.30 11.60 0.00 3 4 72 Kennesaw State Atlantic Sun 75.38 11.60 11.60 0.00 3 4 73 San Diego State MPSF 84.38 0.00 11.00 0.10 3 2 74 Canisius Metro Atlant 78.12 10.90 10.90 0.00 1 5 75 Drexel Colonial 82.59 9.30 10.80 0.00 5 2 76 Marist Metro Atlant 77.28 10.10 10.10 0.00 2 4 77 Radford Big South 72.45 9.90 9.90 0.00 2 7 78 Saint Joseph's Atlantic 10 83.05 9.90 9.90 0.00 4 3 79 Old Dominion Big East 73.82 9.60 9.60 0.00 3 6 80 Butler Big East 73.54 9.20 9.20 0.00 5 2 81 Binghamton America East 75.39 9.10 9.10 0.00 3 5 82 Massachusetts-Lowe America East 76.21 8.80 8.80 0.00 2 5 83 Cincinnati American 77.30 7.30 8.70 0.20 3 4 84 Sacred Heart Northeast 74.07 8.50 8.50 0.00 1 5 85 Harvard Ivy League 86.00 6.60 8.40 0.00 3 3 86 Yale Ivy League 81.89 5.60 8.40 0.00 3 2 87 Delaware State Southern 62.62 8.20 8.20 0.00 1 5 88 Stetson Atlantic Sun 75.92 8.10 8.10 0.00 1 4 89 American Patriot Leag 77.49 3.60 7.90 0.00 7 0 90 Winthrop Big South 72.04 7.90 7.90 0.00 0 7 91 Niagara Metro Atlant 75.89 7.30 7.30 0.00 3 4 92 Kent State Atlantic Sun 65.58 6.80 6.80 0.00 0 6 93 La Salle Atlantic 10 79.83 6.50 6.70 0.00 3 4 94 Merrimack Northeast 74.04 6.60 6.60 0.00 1 6 95 William & Mary Colonial 74.86 6.60 6.60 0.00 2 5 96 Bucknell Patriot Leag 77.97 6.50 6.50 0.00 3 5 97 New Hampshire America East 75.34 6.40 6.40 0.00 1 4 98 Hartford America East 67.15 6.00 6.00 0.00 0 7 99 Howard Atlantic Sun 57.94 6.00 6.00 0.00 0 5 100 Presbyterian Big South 66.47 5.90 5.90 0.00 2 5 101 Akron Atlantic Sun 64.28 5.80 5.80 0.00 0 7 102 Duquesne Atlantic 10 79.56 5.40 5.70 0.00 3 3 103 Long Island Northeast 73.41 5.70 5.70 0.00 1 5 104 Oregon Pacific 12 78.32 5.70 5.70 0.00 2 5 105 Elon Colonial 81.39 5.40 5.60 0.00 3 2 106 California Pacific 12 81.12 5.30 5.40 0.00 2 5 107 Saint Francis Northeast 72.14 4.80 4.80 0.00 4 3 108 Iona Metro Atlant 74.78 4.70 4.70 0.00 3 4 109 Lafayette Patriot Leag 75.05 3.90 4.70 0.00 4 3 110 George Washington Atlantic 10 72.97 4.60 4.60 0.00 0 7 111 Quinnipiac Metro Atlant 74.52 4.50 4.50 0.00 3 4 112 Central Connecticu Northeast 67.66 4.40 4.40 0.00 0 6 113 Virginia Commonwea Atlantic 10 76.62 4.20 4.20 0.00 3 4 114 Manhattan Metro Atlant 74.32 3.90 3.90 0.00 3 4 115 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 70.98 2.90 2.90 0.00 5 2 116 Columbia Ivy League 74.12 0.80 0.80 0.00 0 7 117 UC Davis MPSF 81.71 0.00 0.10 0.00 3 3 118 Fresno State MPSF 76.95 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 5