Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities
Complete List of At-Large predictions below.
The past years predictions were 45 out of 55 or 86%.
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Women s Division II Championship Tournament
The format for the NCAA Division II Women s Lacrosse Championship is a sixteen-team, single-elimination tournament.
Teams must play a minimum of 10 games in-region and have at least a .500 record, and regular-season games tied after
regulation must be decided in overtime. Each region (North and South) will have six teams, and teams will be paired
within region. The prediction is based on the rankings of region record, division record, record against teams
with a 50% winning record and sos in-region. See NCAA for more info.
Primary Factors for Selecting Teams
[1] In-region Division II won-lost results
[2] Overall division II won-lost results
[3] Strength of schedule in-region
[-] Division II Head-to-head competition
[-] Results vs. common opponents
[4] Results vs. teams with records above .500
[-] Performance indicator (not defined by NCAA)
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?
EAST
Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T
PROB REG D2 >50%
[1] [2] [4] [3]
1 Le Moyne 75.20 4 8 0 1 10 4 0 4 0 0
2 Saint Anselm 60.80 18 76 0 24 4 10 0 4 0 0
3 Mercy 53.90 8 22 0 26 5 4 0 4 1 0
4 Adelphi 48.10 4 32 0 10 10 4 0 3 1 0
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5 Assumption 23.30 3 9 0 31 12 4 0 3 0 0
6 Bentley 22.70 11 55 0 12 8 8 0 2 1 0
7 Pace 18.70 11 49 0 25 8 8 0 1 1 0
8 New Haven 17.70 15 76 0 18 5 9 0 2 0 0
9 Stonehill 15.10 10 55 0 13 8 7 0 2 2 0
10 Roberts Wesleyan 13.10 20 90 0 37 2 6 0 4 1 0
11 S. New Hampshire 8.10 6 22 0 20 9 6 0 2 1 0
12 American Internation 7.40 17 93 0 32 4 9 0 3 1 0
13 Franklin Pierce 2.90 9 41 0 15 7 6 0 2 2 0
14 Bridgeport 2.10 2 2 0 63 7 2 0 5 1 0
15 Molloy 1.70 14 93 0 28 4 7 0 2 3 0
16 Saint Rose 1.70 19 93 0 29 4 11 0 2 3 0
17 Southern Connecticut 1.60 15 63 0 30 5 9 0 2 3 0
18 NYIT 0.90 21 74 0 67 1 8 0 3 2 0
19 St. Thomas Aquinas 0.10 13 22 0 86 4 5 0 5 2 0
20 University of DC 0.00 7 69 0 101 4 3 0 0 3 0
ATLANTIC
Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T
PROB REG D2 >50%
[1] [2] [4] [3]
1 East Stroudsburg 77.10 10 28 0 3 7 6 0 4 1 0
2 West Chester 75.00 9 70 0 5 6 5 0 2 0 0
3 Mercyhurst 51.30 1 4 0 56 10 2 0 3 1 0
4 Bloomsburg 50.90 3 34 0 36 9 5 0 4 1 0
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5 Millersville 31.00 8 49 0 19 8 6 0 3 2 0
6 Lock Haven 30.80 12 43 0 49 8 8 0 3 2 0
7 Seton Hill 25.20 17 103 0 23 5 10 0 3 3 0
8 Shippensburg 14.10 3 11 0 47 9 5 0 3 3 0
9 Kutztown 14.00 15 71 0 9 6 7 0 2 3 0
10 Gannon 9.60 15 28 0 75 6 7 0 4 2 0
11 Edinboro 9.10 21 103 0 60 3 9 0 2 2 0
12 Indiana (PA) 7.10 12 49 0 45 7 7 0 2 2 0
13 Slippery Rock 4.60 7 15 0 39 8 5 0 2 3 0
14 Thomas Jefferson 0.10 10 55 0 99 7 6 0 0 4 0
15 Wilmington 0.10 5 61 0 80 7 4 0 1 6 0
16 Caldwell 0.00 5 55 0 81 7 4 0 0 4 0
17 Chestnut Hill 0.00 2 45 0 100 7 3 0 0 4 0
18 Dominican 0.00 17 105 0 104 3 6 0 0 4 0
19 Felician 0.00 22 105 0 107 2 7 0 1 1 0
20 Georgian Court 0.00 12 71 0 69 8 8 0 1 6 0
21 Holy Family 0.00 17 96 0 98 3 6 0 0 3 0
22 Nyack 0.00 23 90 0 112 1 8 0 1 1 0
23 Post 0.00 17 108 0 79 3 6 0 1 6 0
SOUTH
Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T
PROB REG D2 >50%
[1] [2] [4] [3]
1 Tampa 86.00 1 7 0 8 9 3 0 6 1 0
2 Rollins 72.90 12 49 0 14 8 6 0 6 1 0
3 Queens 58.30 17 38 0 22 8 7 0 5 0 0
4 Florida Southern 56.80 7 11 0 2 6 3 0 6 3 0
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5 Embry-Riddle 43.20 10 34 0 38 7 5 0 5 2 0
6 Florida Tech 33.40 15 43 0 17 5 4 0 6 2 0
7 Saint Leo 24.00 27 76 0 40 4 7 0 4 3 0
8 Limestone 7.10 5 21 0 50 12 5 0 6 2 0
9 Lenoir-Rhyne 5.10 13 28 0 55 9 7 0 4 2 0
10 Alabama-Huntsville 3.40 18 22 0 46 4 4 0 5 2 0
11 Lee 2.40 2 15 0 77 10 4 0 6 2 0
12 Lynn 2.10 2 41 0 84 5 2 0 4 3 0
13 Belmont Abbey 2.00 6 14 0 48 11 5 0 7 2 0
14 Mount Olive 1.90 13 32 0 73 9 7 0 7 0 0
15 Lincoln Memorial 0.50 9 45 0 65 8 5 0 2 3 0
16 Wingate 0.40 16 34 0 58 7 6 0 3 5 0
17 North Greenville 0.20 18 63 0 42 8 8 0 3 6 0
18 Shorter 0.20 2 88 0 89 5 2 0 0 5 0
19 Young Harris 0.10 18 49 0 33 8 8 0 3 5 0
20 Barton 0.00 10 34 0 93 7 5 0 4 4 0
21 Catawba 0.00 22 63 0 52 7 9 0 1 4 0
22 Chowan 0.00 32 111 0 103 2 10 0 1 6 0
23 Coker 0.00 27 73 0 97 4 7 0 2 3 0
24 Converse 0.00 26 88 0 72 5 8 0 0 6 0
25 Emmanuel (GA) 0.00 30 109 0 57 4 13 0 0 6 0
26 Erskine 0.00 31 99 0 82 3 11 0 0 8 0
27 Lander 0.00 29 76 0 62 5 10 0 4 5 0
28 Lees-McRae 0.00 18 68 0 110 7 7 0 2 4 0
29 Mars Hill 0.00 8 22 0 59 9 5 0 4 4 0
30 Montevallo 0.00 33 96 0 108 1 8 0 4 4 0
31 Newberry 0.00 22 76 0 68 7 9 0 4 5 0
32 Southern Wesleyan 0.00 24 76 0 87 6 8 0 2 4 0
33 Tusculum 0.00 24 76 0 76 6 8 0 3 3 0
MIDWEST
Rnk Rnk Rnk Rnk REG TOTAL
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN W-L W-L W-L SOS W L T W L T
PROB REG D2 >50%
[1] [2] [4] [3]
1 Lindenwood 98.90 6 4 0 4 10 4 0 9 1 0
2 Indianapolis 92.80 8 15 0 6 8 4 0 7 1 0
3 Concordia-St. Paul 63.50 8 15 0 7 10 5 0 5 2 0
4 Grand Valley State 53.40 22 86 0 34 7 10 0 3 1 0
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5 Davenport 19.90 7 6 0 64 12 5 0 4 1 0
6 McKendree 14.30 25 84 0 51 5 9 0 4 3 0
7 Regis (CO) 10.00 10 38 0 44 8 5 0 2 2 0
8 Findlay 9.90 18 63 0 35 7 8 0 2 3 0
9 Walsh 7.10 3 15 0 41 11 4 0 2 3 0
10 Lake Erie 4.90 14 45 0 54 7 6 0 0 0 0
11 Northern Michigan 4.80 15 45 0 53 8 7 0 2 3 0
12 Shepherd 4.40 33 63 0 11 0 1 0 3 2 0
13 Upper Iowa 2.50 26 102 0 85 4 8 0 0 1 0
14 Maryville (MO) 2.30 4 3 0 105 8 3 0 3 2 0
15 Rockhurst 2.10 2 9 0 78 11 3 0 4 4 0
16 Tiffin 2.00 29 107 0 43 4 11 0 1 4 0
17 UVa-Wise 1.80 1 99 0 61 1 0 0 2 5 0
18 Lewis 1.20 19 86 0 16 6 7 0 2 6 0
19 Colorado Mesa 1.10 13 40 0 71 8 6 0 2 1 0
20 Ashland 1.00 22 76 0 74 7 10 0 2 4 0
21 Fort Lewis 0.70 16 27 0 90 5 5 0 2 0 0
22 Alderson Broaddus 0.30 11 54 0 91 9 6 0 2 2 0
23 Ursuline 0.30 27 99 0 94 4 9 0 0 2 0
24 CSU-Pueblo 0.20 21 84 0 66 6 8 0 1 4 0
25 Notre Dame (OH) 0.20 16 55 0 96 5 5 0 2 3 0
26 Westminster 0.20 24 75 0 88 4 7 0 0 1 0
27 Adams State 0.10 12 55 0 83 7 5 0 0 3 0
28 Colo.-Colorado Sprin 0.10 20 61 0 70 8 10 0 3 4 0
29 Charleston 0.00 4 11 0 109 8 3 0 2 2 0
30 Davis & Elkins 0.00 30 110 0 111 2 6 0 1 3 0
31 Oklahoma Baptist 0.00 32 112 0 92 1 13 0 0 5 0
32 Quincy 0.00 28 96 0 106 3 7 0 3 4 0
33 West Virginia Wesley 0.00 30 92 0 95 2 6 0 0 4 0
