Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last 7 years at-large accuracy: 53 out of 56 or 94%.
                         

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division I Championship Tournament

For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide. The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins) [5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results against common opponents [-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI) [-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI) [-] Location of the contests Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Note that the SOS on Laxbytes computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.
 RNK TEAMNAME              TOURN    AUTO  AT-LARGE     RANK
                            SEL     QUAL    SEL     RPI QW SOS  RPI+QW+SOS/2    W  L
                           PROB     PROB   PROB                     SUM
                                                    [3] [4] [2]
 
   1 Marquette             19.50    19.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   2 Penn State            18.40    18.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   3 Hofstra               18.30    18.30    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   4 Drexel                17.90    17.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   5 UMass                 17.50    17.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   6 Denver                17.30    17.30    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   7 Georgetown            17.10    17.10    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   8 Maryland              16.80    16.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
   9 Ohio State            16.70    16.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  10 Villanova             16.60    16.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  11 Michigan              16.50    16.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  12 Johns Hopkins         16.40    16.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  13 Princeton             16.40    16.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  14 Towson                16.00    16.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  15 Cornell               15.90    15.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  16 Delaware              15.90    15.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  17 UMass Lowell          15.70    15.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  18 Binghamton            15.50    15.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  19 Vermont               15.40    15.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  20 Mount St. Mary's      15.30    15.30    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  21 Harvard               15.20    15.20    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  22 Rutgers               15.20    15.20    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  23 St. John's            14.90    14.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  24 Albany                14.80    14.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  25 Providence            14.60    14.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  26 Robert Morris         14.60    14.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  27 Hobart                14.50    14.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  28 Fairfield             14.40    14.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  29 Hartford              14.10    14.10    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  30 Marist                14.00    14.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  31 Brown                 13.90    13.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  32 VMI                   13.90    13.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  33 Detroit Mercy         13.80    13.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  34 Mercer                13.80    13.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  35 Bellarmine            13.60    13.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  36 Penn                  13.50    13.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  37 LIU                   13.40    13.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  38 Manhattan             13.30    13.30    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  39 Quinnipiac            13.20    13.20    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  40 Yale                  13.00    13.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  41 Lehigh                12.70    12.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  42 Stony Brook           12.70    12.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  43 Richmond              12.40    12.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  44 Colgate               12.10    12.10    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  45 Dartmouth             12.10    12.10    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  46 Siena                 12.10    12.10    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  47 Furman                12.00    12.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  48 High Point            11.90    11.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  49 Wagner                11.90    11.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  50 Lafayette             11.80    11.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  51 UMBC                  11.80    11.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  52 Boston U.             11.70    11.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  53 Jacksonville          11.50    11.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  54 Loyola                11.50    11.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  55 Canisius              11.40    11.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  56 St. Bonaventure       11.40    11.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  57 Air Force             10.90    10.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  58 Monmouth              10.80    10.80    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  59 Sacred Heart          10.70    10.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  60 Army                  10.60    10.60    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  61 Navy                  10.40    10.40    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  62 Saint Joseph's         9.90     9.90    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  63 Bryant                 9.70     9.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  64 Bucknell               9.70     9.70    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  65 Holy Cross             9.50     9.50    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  66 Cleveland State        0.00     0.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  67 Duke                   0.00     0.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  68 Hampton                0.00     0.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  69 Merrimack              0.00     0.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  70 NJIT                   0.00     0.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  71 North Carolina         0.00     0.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  72 Notre Dame             0.00     0.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  73 Syracuse               0.00     0.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  74 Utah                   0.00     0.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0
  75 Virginia               0.00     0.00    0.00    0   0   0      0.00        0  0