Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities
AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
Last 7 years at-large accuracy: 53 out of 56 or 94%.
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Men s Division I Championship Tournament
For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide.
The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability.
The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences
are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference
RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are
selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00.
Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI*
[2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI)
[3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+
[4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins)
[5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
[-] Head-to-head competition
[-] Results against common opponents
[-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI)
[-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI)
[-] Location of the contests
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
Note that the SOS on Laxbytes computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the
10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation.
WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN AUTO AT-LARGE RANK
SEL QUAL SEL RPI QW SOS RPI+QW+SOS/2 W L
PROB PROB PROB SUM
[3] [4] [2]
1 Cornell 100.00 12.70 100.00 2 1 21 13.50 5 0
2 Ohio State 100.00 14.10 100.00 3 17 6 23.00 5 2
3 Penn State 100.00 18.10 100.00 11 2 19 22.50 5 2
4 Yale 100.00 14.90 100.00 1 8 4 11.00 3 1
5 Maryland 97.05 17.50 96.43 8 5 22 24.00 5 1
6 UMass 93.90 17.70 92.58 10 7 17 25.50 5 2
7 Providence 92.62 14.30 91.38 4 13 18 26.00 5 1
8 Villanova 83.51 16.50 80.25 7 21 7 31.50 4 3
9 Princeton 82.46 14.90 79.39 9 4 38 32.00 5 0
10 Syracuse 76.90 0.00 76.90 5 12 33 33.50 5 0
11 North Carolina 70.97 0.00 70.97 12 3 45 37.50 7 0
12 Army 67.45 26.30 55.84 24 9 36 51.00 6 2
13 Lehigh 66.15 24.90 54.92 21 11 40 52.00 5 1
14 Saint Joseph's 65.76 11.50 61.31 18 15 25 45.50 5 2
15 Harvard 65.34 13.90 59.74 19 23 10 47.00 2 2
16 Virginia 65.25 0.00 65.25 6 32 8 42.00 4 2
17 Georgetown 62.33 14.70 55.84 17 6 56 51.00 6 0
18 Brown 55.49 15.20 47.51 28 18 30 61.00 3 2
19 Denver 52.99 20.40 40.95 26 29 31 70.50 4 2
20 Dartmouth 52.01 13.90 44.26 25 22 37 65.50 3 1
21 Holy Cross 51.87 0.00 51.87 15 36 9 55.50 4 3
22 Bucknell 51.45 0.00 51.45 23 10 46 56.00 5 1
23 Stony Brook 49.18 15.30 40.00 22 34 32 72.00 5 2
24 UMBC 47.83 16.40 37.59 30 19 54 76.00 4 1
25 Duke 46.03 0.00 46.03 20 26 34 63.00 6 2
26 Richmond 31.50 31.50 0.00 34 42 35 93.50 4 3
27 Wagner 28.70 28.70 0.00 71 66 68 171.00 1 5
28 Boston U. 19.40 19.40 0.00 43 28 42 92.00 3 3
29 Drexel 18.20 18.20 0.00 35 35 28 84.00 3 3
30 Rutgers 17.90 17.90 0.00 45 53 27 111.50 2 4
31 Johns Hopkins 17.70 17.70 0.00 29 44 12 79.00 2 4
32 Marquette 17.60 17.60 0.00 61 55 61 146.50 3 4
33 Towson 17.50 17.50 0.00 59 70 16 137.00 0 6
34 St. John's 16.50 16.50 0.00 62 56 62 149.00 3 4
35 Delaware 16.20 16.20 0.00 33 25 39 77.50 4 2
36 Hofstra 15.50 15.50 0.00 36 33 41 89.50 4 3
37 Loyola 15.30 15.30 0.00 40 27 55 94.50 4 2
38 Fairfield 14.90 14.90 0.00 37 30 60 97.00 5 2
39 Michigan 14.70 14.70 0.00 53 40 64 125.00 4 3
40 UMass Lowell 14.70 14.70 0.00 58 50 58 137.00 3 4
41 Penn 14.50 14.50 0.00 14 31 2 46.00 2 3
42 Navy 14.10 14.10 0.00 44 41 52 111.00 3 2
43 Albany 13.80 13.80 0.00 13 24 1 37.50 2 3
44 Hartford 13.70 13.70 0.00 65 48 73 149.50 3 3
45 Monmouth 13.60 13.60 0.00 48 52 29 114.50 2 4
46 Siena 13.60 13.60 0.00 64 57 69 155.50 2 4
47 St. Bonaventure 13.40 13.40 0.00 69 74 49 167.50 0 6
48 Quinnipiac 13.30 13.30 0.00 74 75 65 181.50 0 6
49 Binghamton 13.10 13.10 0.00 49 58 20 117.00 1 5
50 Vermont 13.00 13.00 0.00 32 20 51 77.50 3 1
51 Marist 12.60 12.60 0.00 31 49 23 91.50 3 3
52 Mercer 12.00 12.00 0.00 46 16 71 97.50 5 1
53 Detroit Mercy 11.90 11.90 0.00 51 43 43 115.50 2 3
54 VMI 11.40 11.40 0.00 68 60 47 151.50 0 4
55 Bryant 10.90 10.90 0.00 16 45 5 63.50 3 4
56 Canisius 10.80 10.80 0.00 67 67 44 156.00 0 5
57 Manhattan 10.80 10.80 0.00 66 47 74 150.00 3 3
58 Air Force 9.90 9.90 0.00 47 39 53 112.50 4 3
59 Jacksonville 9.20 9.20 0.00 54 46 59 129.50 3 3
60 Bellarmine 8.90 8.90 0.00 72 72 72 180.00 2 6
61 High Point 8.80 8.80 0.00 39 54 15 100.50 2 6
62 Furman 8.30 8.30 0.00 60 65 26 138.00 1 6
63 Robert Morris 7.50 7.50 0.00 50 38 67 121.50 4 2
64 Merrimack 7.30 7.30 0.00 56 63 24 131.00 1 5
65 Hobart 7.20 7.20 0.00 38 14 66 85.00 4 1
66 LIU 7.20 7.20 0.00 73 71 70 179.00 1 6
67 Sacred Heart 7.10 7.10 0.00 41 59 11 105.50 1 5
68 NJIT 6.40 6.40 0.00 70 73 63 174.50 1 6
69 Mount St. Mary's 6.20 6.20 0.00 57 62 48 143.00 3 5
70 Cleveland State 0.00 0.00 0.00 63 64 50 152.00 2 5
71 Colgate 0.00 0.00 0.00 42 61 3 104.50 0 6
72 Hampton 0.00 0.00 0.00 75 68 75 180.50 0 6
73 Lafayette 0.00 0.00 0.00 55 69 13 130.50 0 6
74 Notre Dame 0.00 0.00 0.00 27 37 14 71.00 2 3
75 Utah 0.00 0.00 0.00 52 51 57 131.50 3 3
