Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last 7 years at-large accuracy: 53 out of 56 or 94%.
 
 

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division I Championship Tournament

For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide. The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins) [5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results against common opponents [-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI) [-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI) [-] Location of the contests Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Note that the SOS on Laxbytes computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.
 RNK TEAMNAME             CONFERENCE           TOURN      AQ
                                               PROB      PROB   RPI QW SOS   W  L
                                                               [3] [4] [2]
 
   1 North Carolina       ACC                  94.10     0.00    3   3   3   6  0
   2 Cornell              Ivy                  91.90    27.20    1   1   1   5  0
   3 Syracuse             ACC                  81.60     0.00    2   4   7   5  0
   4 Georgetown           Big East             75.90    31.60    5   2  36   6  0
   5 Yale                 Ivy                  66.20    19.30    9   7  12   3  1
   6 Maryland             Big Ten              63.10    19.80    4   6   9   5  1
   7 Penn State           Big Ten              61.50    29.30   14  14  10   4  2
   8 Princeton            Ivy                  57.20    15.90   12  12  24   5  0
   9 Providence           Big East             52.30    21.20   25  41  32   5  1
  10 Ohio State           Big Ten              51.60    19.90    6   5  21   4  2
  11 Dartmouth            Ivy                  51.40    13.50   11  11  14   3  1
  12 Villanova            Big East             50.10    16.60   13  17  19   4  3
  13 Army                 Patriot              49.30    30.50   21  16  31   6  2
  14 Penn                 Ivy                  45.00    10.70    8  10   2   2  3
  15 UMass                CAA                  43.20    30.50   33  33  40   4  2
  16 Denver               Big East             41.00    14.40   17  21  16   4  2
  17 Notre Dame           ACC                  39.60     0.00    7   8   6   2  2
  18 Virginia             ACC                  38.10     0.00   15  24   5   4  2
  19 Albany               America East         36.30    20.70   10  13  11   2  3
  20 Duke                 ACC                  32.90     0.00   19  19  20   5  2
  21 Richmond             SoCon                30.90    29.40   20  22  37   4  3
  22 Vermont              America East         29.50    27.20   56  62  42   3  1
  23 Bryant               Northeast            26.00    17.30   39  40  27   3  3
  24 Brown                Ivy                  25.30     6.30   26  39   8   3  2
  25 Lehigh               Patriot              25.20    18.60   24  15  28   5  1
  26 Marist               MAAC                 24.00    24.00   60  50  57   3  3
  27 Drexel               CAA                  23.70    21.80   30  37  51   3  3
  28 Bucknell             Patriot              23.50    16.00   35  23  29   5  1
  29 Hobart               Northeast            22.50    21.50   31  20  52   4  1
  30 Harvard              Ivy                  21.90     7.10   22  27  15   2  2
  31 Loyola               Patriot              20.30    13.20   34  28  25   4  2
  32 Manhattan            MAAC                 19.90    19.90   55  38  73   3  3
  33 Stony Brook          America East         17.60    13.50   27  32  56   5  2
  34 Mercer               SoCon                17.40    17.40   40  25  63   5  1
  35 Delaware             CAA                  17.10    16.10   48  53  69   4  2
  36 UMBC                 America East         16.10    14.80   23  31  48   4  1
  37 Rutgers              Big Ten              15.80    13.40   50  48  18   2  4
  38 Saint Joseph's       Northeast            15.20    13.50   43  29  53   5  2
  39 Quinnipiac           MAAC                 14.70    14.70   71  71  74   0  6
  40 Air Force            SoCon                14.60    14.60   54  51  62   4  3
  41 Fairfield            CAA                  14.60    11.00   16  18  38   4  2
  42 Hofstra              CAA                  14.40    13.60   46  54  54   3  3
  43 Detroit Mercy        MAAC                 13.10    13.10   72  73  68   2  3
  44 Boston U.            Patriot              12.40    10.60   49  47  34   3  3
  45 Marquette            Big East             12.20     9.80   62  69  39   3  3
  46 Johns Hopkins        Big Ten              12.10    10.00   29  26  13   1  4
  47 Merrimack            Northeast            10.70    10.70   52  65  47   1  5
  48 Jacksonville         SoCon                10.60    10.50   64  49  65   3  2
  49 Siena                MAAC                  9.60     9.60   59  46  64   2  3
  50 High Point           SoCon                 9.20     9.20   32  43  23   2  6
  51 Hartford             America East          8.90     8.90   47  45  58   3  3
  52 Robert Morris        Northeast             8.60     8.50   61  56  66   4  2
  53 Michigan             Big Ten               8.50     7.60   51  55  41   3  3
  54 Navy                 Patriot               8.50     7.10   41  34  35   3  2
  55 UMass Lowell         America East          8.50     8.40   45  60  46   3  4
  56 Monmouth             MAAC                  7.40     7.40   68  61  67   2  4
  57 St. John's           Big East              7.40     6.40   42  35  44   3  3
  58 Sacred Heart         Northeast             7.10     7.10   58  59  45   1  5
  59 VMI                  SoCon                 7.10     7.10   36  36  49   0  4
  60 Towson               CAA                   7.00     7.00   37  57  22   0  6
  61 Wagner               Northeast             6.90     6.90   65  70  59   1  5
  62 Binghamton           America East          6.50     6.50   28  30  26   1  5
  63 Bellarmine           SoCon                 6.40     6.40   69  72  61   2  6
  64 Canisius             MAAC                  6.20     6.20   73  74  72   0  5
  65 Furman               SoCon                 5.40     5.40   66  68  33   1  5
  66 LIU                  Northeast             5.30     5.30   74  75  60   1  5
  67 St. Bonaventure      MAAC                  5.10     5.10   70  67  70   0  6
  68 Holy Cross           Patriot               4.80     2.20   18   9  43   4  3
  69 Mount St. Mary's     Northeast             4.70     4.70   38  44  30   3  4
  70 NJIT                 Northeast             4.50     4.50   67  66  55   1  6
  71 Colgate              Patriot               1.40     1.00   44  52   4   0  6
  72 Lafayette            Patriot               0.80     0.80   57  63  17   0  6
  73 Utah                 Independent           0.60     0.00   53  58  50   3  3
  74 Cleveland State      Independent           0.00     0.00   63  42  71   2  5
  75 Hampton              Independent           0.00     0.00   75  64  75   0  5