Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
 Last 7 years at-large accuracy: 53 out of 56 or 94%.
                         

Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division I Championship Tournament

For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide. The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins) [5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results against common opponents [-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI) [-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI) [-] Location of the contests Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Note that the SOS on Laxbytes computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? Your browser does not support the HTML5 canvas tag.
 RNK TEAMNAME              TOURN    AUTO  AT-LARGE     RANK
                            SEL     QUAL    SEL     RPI QW SOS  RPI+QW+SOS/2    W  L
                           PROB     PROB   PROB                     SUM
                                                    [3] [4] [2]
 
   1 Cornell              100.00    12.70  100.00    2   1  21     13.50        5  0
   2 Ohio State           100.00    14.10  100.00    3  17   6     23.00        5  2
   3 Penn State           100.00    18.10  100.00   11   2  19     22.50        5  2
   4 Yale                 100.00    14.90  100.00    1   8   4     11.00        3  1
   5 Maryland              97.05    17.50   96.43    8   5  22     24.00        5  1
   6 UMass                 93.90    17.70   92.58   10   7  17     25.50        5  2
   7 Providence            92.62    14.30   91.38    4  13  18     26.00        5  1
   8 Villanova             83.51    16.50   80.25    7  21   7     31.50        4  3
   9 Princeton             82.46    14.90   79.39    9   4  38     32.00        5  0
  10 Syracuse              76.90     0.00   76.90    5  12  33     33.50        5  0
  11 North Carolina        70.97     0.00   70.97   12   3  45     37.50        7  0
  12 Army                  67.45    26.30   55.84   24   9  36     51.00        6  2
  13 Lehigh                66.15    24.90   54.92   21  11  40     52.00        5  1
  14 Saint Joseph's        65.76    11.50   61.31   18  15  25     45.50        5  2
  15 Harvard               65.34    13.90   59.74   19  23  10     47.00        2  2
  16 Virginia              65.25     0.00   65.25    6  32   8     42.00        4  2
  17 Georgetown            62.33    14.70   55.84   17   6  56     51.00        6  0
  18 Brown                 55.49    15.20   47.51   28  18  30     61.00        3  2
  19 Denver                52.99    20.40   40.95   26  29  31     70.50        4  2
  20 Dartmouth             52.01    13.90   44.26   25  22  37     65.50        3  1
  21 Holy Cross            51.87     0.00   51.87   15  36   9     55.50        4  3
  22 Bucknell              51.45     0.00   51.45   23  10  46     56.00        5  1
  23 Stony Brook           49.18    15.30   40.00   22  34  32     72.00        5  2
  24 UMBC                  47.83    16.40   37.59   30  19  54     76.00        4  1
  25 Duke                  46.03     0.00   46.03   20  26  34     63.00        6  2
  26 Richmond              31.50    31.50    0.00   34  42  35     93.50        4  3
  27 Wagner                28.70    28.70    0.00   71  66  68    171.00        1  5
  28 Boston U.             19.40    19.40    0.00   43  28  42     92.00        3  3
  29 Drexel                18.20    18.20    0.00   35  35  28     84.00        3  3
  30 Rutgers               17.90    17.90    0.00   45  53  27    111.50        2  4
  31 Johns Hopkins         17.70    17.70    0.00   29  44  12     79.00        2  4
  32 Marquette             17.60    17.60    0.00   61  55  61    146.50        3  4
  33 Towson                17.50    17.50    0.00   59  70  16    137.00        0  6
  34 St. John's            16.50    16.50    0.00   62  56  62    149.00        3  4
  35 Delaware              16.20    16.20    0.00   33  25  39     77.50        4  2
  36 Hofstra               15.50    15.50    0.00   36  33  41     89.50        4  3
  37 Loyola                15.30    15.30    0.00   40  27  55     94.50        4  2
  38 Fairfield             14.90    14.90    0.00   37  30  60     97.00        5  2
  39 Michigan              14.70    14.70    0.00   53  40  64    125.00        4  3
  40 UMass Lowell          14.70    14.70    0.00   58  50  58    137.00        3  4
  41 Penn                  14.50    14.50    0.00   14  31   2     46.00        2  3
  42 Navy                  14.10    14.10    0.00   44  41  52    111.00        3  2
  43 Albany                13.80    13.80    0.00   13  24   1     37.50        2  3
  44 Hartford              13.70    13.70    0.00   65  48  73    149.50        3  3
  45 Monmouth              13.60    13.60    0.00   48  52  29    114.50        2  4
  46 Siena                 13.60    13.60    0.00   64  57  69    155.50        2  4
  47 St. Bonaventure       13.40    13.40    0.00   69  74  49    167.50        0  6
  48 Quinnipiac            13.30    13.30    0.00   74  75  65    181.50        0  6
  49 Binghamton            13.10    13.10    0.00   49  58  20    117.00        1  5
  50 Vermont               13.00    13.00    0.00   32  20  51     77.50        3  1
  51 Marist                12.60    12.60    0.00   31  49  23     91.50        3  3
  52 Mercer                12.00    12.00    0.00   46  16  71     97.50        5  1
  53 Detroit Mercy         11.90    11.90    0.00   51  43  43    115.50        2  3
  54 VMI                   11.40    11.40    0.00   68  60  47    151.50        0  4
  55 Bryant                10.90    10.90    0.00   16  45   5     63.50        3  4
  56 Canisius              10.80    10.80    0.00   67  67  44    156.00        0  5
  57 Manhattan             10.80    10.80    0.00   66  47  74    150.00        3  3
  58 Air Force              9.90     9.90    0.00   47  39  53    112.50        4  3
  59 Jacksonville           9.20     9.20    0.00   54  46  59    129.50        3  3
  60 Bellarmine             8.90     8.90    0.00   72  72  72    180.00        2  6
  61 High Point             8.80     8.80    0.00   39  54  15    100.50        2  6
  62 Furman                 8.30     8.30    0.00   60  65  26    138.00        1  6
  63 Robert Morris          7.50     7.50    0.00   50  38  67    121.50        4  2
  64 Merrimack              7.30     7.30    0.00   56  63  24    131.00        1  5
  65 Hobart                 7.20     7.20    0.00   38  14  66     85.00        4  1
  66 LIU                    7.20     7.20    0.00   73  71  70    179.00        1  6
  67 Sacred Heart           7.10     7.10    0.00   41  59  11    105.50        1  5
  68 NJIT                   6.40     6.40    0.00   70  73  63    174.50        1  6
  69 Mount St. Mary's       6.20     6.20    0.00   57  62  48    143.00        3  5
  70 Cleveland State        0.00     0.00    0.00   63  64  50    152.00        2  5
  71 Colgate                0.00     0.00    0.00   42  61   3    104.50        0  6
  72 Hampton                0.00     0.00    0.00   75  68  75    180.50        0  6
  73 Lafayette              0.00     0.00    0.00   55  69  13    130.50        0  6
  74 Notre Dame             0.00     0.00    0.00   27  37  14     71.00        2  3
  75 Utah                   0.00     0.00    0.00   52  51  57    131.50        3  3