Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities
AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
Last 7 years at-large accuracy: 53 out of 56 or 94%.
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Men s Division I Championship Tournament
For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide.
The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability.
The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences
are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference
RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are
selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00.
Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI*
[2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI)
[3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+
[4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins)
[5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
[-] Head-to-head competition
[-] Results against common opponents
[-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI)
[-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI)
[-] Location of the contests
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
Note that the SOS on Laxbytes computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the
10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation.
WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?
RNK TEAMNAME TOURN AUTO AT-LARGE RANK
SEL QUAL SEL RPI QW SOS RPI+QW+SOS/2 W L
PROB PROB PROB SUM
[3] [4] [2]
1 Marquette 19.50 19.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
2 Penn State 18.40 18.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
3 Hofstra 18.30 18.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
4 Drexel 17.90 17.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
5 UMass 17.50 17.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
6 Denver 17.30 17.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
7 Georgetown 17.10 17.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
8 Maryland 16.80 16.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
9 Ohio State 16.70 16.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
10 Villanova 16.60 16.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
11 Michigan 16.50 16.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
12 Johns Hopkins 16.40 16.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
13 Princeton 16.40 16.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
14 Towson 16.00 16.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
15 Cornell 15.90 15.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
16 Delaware 15.90 15.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
17 UMass Lowell 15.70 15.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
18 Binghamton 15.50 15.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
19 Vermont 15.40 15.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
20 Mount St. Mary's 15.30 15.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
21 Harvard 15.20 15.20 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
22 Rutgers 15.20 15.20 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
23 St. John's 14.90 14.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
24 Albany 14.80 14.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
25 Providence 14.60 14.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
26 Robert Morris 14.60 14.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
27 Hobart 14.50 14.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
28 Fairfield 14.40 14.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
29 Hartford 14.10 14.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
30 Marist 14.00 14.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
31 Brown 13.90 13.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
32 VMI 13.90 13.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
33 Detroit Mercy 13.80 13.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
34 Mercer 13.80 13.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
35 Bellarmine 13.60 13.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
36 Penn 13.50 13.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
37 LIU 13.40 13.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
38 Manhattan 13.30 13.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
39 Quinnipiac 13.20 13.20 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
40 Yale 13.00 13.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
41 Lehigh 12.70 12.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
42 Stony Brook 12.70 12.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
43 Richmond 12.40 12.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
44 Colgate 12.10 12.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
45 Dartmouth 12.10 12.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
46 Siena 12.10 12.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
47 Furman 12.00 12.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
48 High Point 11.90 11.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
49 Wagner 11.90 11.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
50 Lafayette 11.80 11.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
51 UMBC 11.80 11.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
52 Boston U. 11.70 11.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
53 Jacksonville 11.50 11.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
54 Loyola 11.50 11.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
55 Canisius 11.40 11.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
56 St. Bonaventure 11.40 11.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
57 Air Force 10.90 10.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
58 Monmouth 10.80 10.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
59 Sacred Heart 10.70 10.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
60 Army 10.60 10.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
61 Navy 10.40 10.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
62 Saint Joseph's 9.90 9.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
63 Bryant 9.70 9.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
64 Bucknell 9.70 9.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
65 Holy Cross 9.50 9.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
66 Cleveland State 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
67 Duke 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
68 Hampton 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
69 Merrimack 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
70 NJIT 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
71 North Carolina 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
72 Notre Dame 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
73 Syracuse 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
74 Utah 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
75 Virginia 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0
