Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities
AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
Last years at-large accuracy: 47 out of 52 or 90%.
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Women s Division I Championship Tournament
The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with
the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ).
The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability
goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games.
Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[1] Won-loss record
[2] Strength of schedule
[3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI)
[-] Head-to-head competition
[-] Results vs. common opponents
[4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams)
[5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%)
Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[6] Late-season performance (last six games)
[-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large).
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?
RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ
PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L
[3] [4] [2]
1 North Carolina Atlantic Coast 98.70 32.70 5 2 6 7 0
2 Syracuse Atlantic Coast 96.80 20.70 14 8 16 7 1
3 Notre Dame Atlantic Coast 96.60 21.00 8 3 22 7 0
4 Loyola Patriot League 90.20 22.00 1 1 12 5 0
5 Dartmouth Ivy League 82.50 20.10 4 5 4 5 0
6 Southern California Pacific 12 79.20 35.60 3 4 14 6 0
7 Florida American 77.20 29.50 10 6 2 6 2
8 Northwestern Big Ten 74.00 25.90 15 25 18 4 3
9 Michigan Big Ten 73.80 21.60 2 13 57 5 1
10 Army Patriot League 70.20 13.50 29 10 36 7 0
11 Virginia Tech Atlantic Coast 67.50 10.30 26 26 7 7 3
12 James Madison Colonial 65.40 26.60 7 11 20 5 1
13 Penn Ivy League 62.40 31.70 6 14 44 4 1
14 Boston College Atlantic Coast 58.30 5.50 13 20 3 4 3
15 Penn State Big Ten 52.40 12.90 12 17 43 5 2
16 Virginia Atlantic Coast 50.40 1.80 18 45 1 5 3
17 Stony Brook America East 49.00 23.30 9 15 30 4 1
18 Duke Atlantic Coast 45.60 6.50 40 27 21 6 3
19 Massachusetts Atlantic 10 45.60 21.20 11 12 17 4 1
20 Lehigh Patriot League 45.10 16.90 27 24 47 6 2
21 Maryland Big Ten 44.40 15.00 17 29 13 3 3
22 Denver Big East 43.40 28.10 30 16 49 7 1
23 Colorado Pacific 12 39.10 18.80 25 21 11 3 2
24 Louisville Atlantic Coast 37.90 1.50 21 44 5 5 4
25 Stanford Pacific 12 35.80 22.70 22 60 55 3 4
26 Jacksonville Atlantic Sun 35.30 28.30 51 18 38 3 1
27 Brown Ivy League 33.30 5.30 19 37 23 4 3
28 Hofstra Colonial 31.40 19.30 32 28 27 4 3
29 Albany America East 29.90 18.40 23 23 10 3 2
30 Connecticut American 29.10 23.00 44 22 26 5 2
31 High Point Big South 28.80 27.00 36 52 31 1 4
32 Johns Hopkins Big Ten 27.80 10.10 16 35 25 4 3
33 Princeton Ivy League 27.80 15.70 42 30 9 3 2
34 Mercer Southern 27.00 26.80 75 39 109 5 2
35 Vanderbilt American 26.80 16.50 20 61 8 4 5
36 Cornell Ivy League 26.10 14.20 49 33 29 4 2
37 Georgetown Big East 25.70 20.50 38 47 53 4 3
38 Monmouth Metro Atlantic 25.10 23.90 37 36 97 6 2
39 Wagner Northeast 23.10 23.10 64 79 61 3 4
40 Longwood Big South 22.40 22.40 60 95 71 3 5
41 Central Michigan Southern 21.20 21.00 57 56 107 2 3
42 Marquette Big East 21.10 20.10 45 63 90 6 4
43 Fairfield Metro Atlantic 20.40 20.40 90 97 87 2 5
44 Davidson Atlantic 10 20.10 18.00 46 72 39 2 4
45 Towson Colonial 18.80 16.50 33 55 15 2 4
46 Arizona State Pacific 12 18.60 11.90 53 49 63 5 3
47 Bryant Northeast 18.20 18.20 50 38 83 4 2
48 Coastal Carolina Atlantic Sun 18.20 18.20 74 68 99 2 3
49 Navy Patriot League 17.80 12.40 48 71 37 2 4
50 Furman Southern 17.50 17.50 68 76 108 3 4
51 Delaware Colonial 16.90 16.30 54 69 62 2 3
52 Richmond Atlantic 10 16.80 16.10 28 7 70 7 0
53 Robert Morris Northeast 16.80 16.80 71 40 110 5 2
54 Liberty Atlantic Sun 16.70 15.20 58 66 33 3 3
55 Vermont America East 15.80 15.80 81 78 89 4 4
56 Detroit Mercy Southern 14.70 14.70 103 111 118 1 7
57 Gardner-Webb Big South 14.40 14.40 82 50 113 6 3
58 Ohio State Big Ten 14.40 7.20 31 48 24 5 4
59 Temple American 14.40 14.20 80 75 74 5 4
60 Siena Metro Atlantic 14.30 14.30 62 77 85 3 4
61 Holy Cross Patriot League 13.30 7.50 84 53 42 5 3
62 East Carolina American 13.20 9.50 61 58 51 5 3
63 Villanova Big East 12.60 12.50 72 96 69 3 5
64 Boston University Patriot League 12.50 6.40 59 42 19 3 3
65 Campbell Big South 12.50 12.50 98 112 98 2 7
66 Rutgers Big Ten 12.50 7.30 34 54 40 5 4
67 George Mason Atlantic 10 12.30 11.20 35 51 54 4 3
68 UMBC America East 12.30 12.20 65 89 93 2 4
69 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 11.90 11.90 55 19 84 6 1
70 Wofford Southern 11.80 11.80 96 110 111 0 6
71 Colgate Patriot League 11.60 7.30 52 73 45 3 4
72 Kennesaw State Atlantic Sun 11.60 11.60 77 70 94 3 4
73 San Diego State MPSF 11.00 0.00 24 31 66 3 2
74 Canisius Metro Atlantic 10.90 10.90 91 94 67 1 5
75 Drexel Colonial 10.80 9.30 43 34 64 5 2
76 Marist Metro Atlantic 10.10 10.10 66 88 100 2 4
77 Radford Big South 9.90 9.90 102 113 80 2 7
78 Saint Joseph's Atlantic 10 9.90 9.90 47 59 73 4 3
79 Old Dominion Big East 9.60 9.60 107 106 77 3 6
80 Butler Big East 9.20 9.20 93 43 92 5 2
81 Binghamton America East 9.10 9.10 69 91 72 3 5
82 Massachusetts-Lowell America East 8.80 8.80 88 92 60 2 5
83 Cincinnati American 8.70 7.30 76 80 41 3 4
84 Sacred Heart Northeast 8.50 8.50 114 104 95 1 5
85 Harvard Ivy League 8.40 6.60 41 65 59 3 3
86 Yale Ivy League 8.40 5.60 39 32 34 3 2
87 Delaware State Southern 8.20 8.20 115 102 117 1 5
88 Stetson Atlantic Sun 8.10 8.10 111 90 115 1 4
89 American Patriot League 7.90 3.60 56 9 65 7 0
90 Winthrop Big South 7.90 7.90 118 118 112 0 7
91 Niagara Metro Atlantic 7.30 7.30 78 84 104 3 4
92 Kent State Atlantic Sun 6.80 6.80 108 109 106 0 6
93 La Salle Atlantic 10 6.70 6.50 85 82 76 3 4
94 Merrimack Northeast 6.60 6.60 112 107 78 1 6
95 William & Mary Colonial 6.60 6.60 83 101 35 2 5
96 Bucknell Patriot League 6.50 6.50 99 93 58 3 5
97 New Hampshire America East 6.40 6.40 94 74 56 1 4
98 Hartford America East 6.00 6.00 110 117 82 0 7
99 Howard Atlantic Sun 6.00 6.00 117 105 114 0 5
100 Presbyterian Big South 5.90 5.90 106 100 116 2 5
101 Akron Atlantic Sun 5.80 5.80 113 114 102 0 7
102 Duquesne Atlantic 10 5.70 5.40 79 57 46 3 3
103 Long Island Northeast 5.70 5.70 86 103 79 1 5
104 Oregon Pacific 12 5.70 5.70 87 99 32 2 5
105 Elon Colonial 5.60 5.40 70 46 81 3 2
106 California Pacific 12 5.40 5.30 67 87 68 2 5
107 Saint Francis Northeast 4.80 4.80 100 64 75 4 3
108 Iona Metro Atlantic 4.70 4.70 89 81 103 3 4
109 Lafayette Patriot League 4.70 3.90 73 62 52 4 3
110 George Washington Atlantic 10 4.60 4.60 105 116 48 0 7
111 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic 4.50 4.50 95 85 88 3 4
112 Central Connecticut Northeast 4.40 4.40 116 108 96 0 6
113 Virginia Commonwealt Atlantic 10 4.20 4.20 97 86 50 3 4
114 Manhattan Metro Atlantic 3.90 3.90 92 83 101 3 4
115 St. Bonaventure Atlantic 10 2.90 2.90 109 41 86 5 2
116 Columbia Ivy League 0.80 0.80 101 115 28 0 7
117 UC Davis MPSF 0.10 0.00 63 67 105 3 3
118 Fresno State MPSF 0.00 0.00 104 98 91 2 5
