Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities
AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below.
Last 7 years at-large accuracy: 53 out of 56 or 94%.
Probability of receiving an invitation to the NCAA
Men s Division I Championship Tournament
For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide.
The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability.
The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences
are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference
RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are
selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00.
Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams
[1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI*
[2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI)
[3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+
[4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins)
[5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
[-] Head-to-head competition
[-] Results against common opponents
[-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI)
[-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI)
[-] Location of the contests
Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities.
Note that the SOS on Laxbytes computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the
10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation.
WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If?
RNK TEAMNAME CONFERENCE TOURN AQ
PROB PROB RPI QW SOS W L
[3] [4] [2]
1 North Carolina ACC 94.10 0.00 3 3 3 6 0
2 Cornell Ivy 91.90 27.20 1 1 1 5 0
3 Syracuse ACC 81.60 0.00 2 4 7 5 0
4 Georgetown Big East 75.90 31.60 5 2 36 6 0
5 Yale Ivy 66.20 19.30 9 7 12 3 1
6 Maryland Big Ten 63.10 19.80 4 6 9 5 1
7 Penn State Big Ten 61.50 29.30 14 14 10 4 2
8 Princeton Ivy 57.20 15.90 12 12 24 5 0
9 Providence Big East 52.30 21.20 25 41 32 5 1
10 Ohio State Big Ten 51.60 19.90 6 5 21 4 2
11 Dartmouth Ivy 51.40 13.50 11 11 14 3 1
12 Villanova Big East 50.10 16.60 13 17 19 4 3
13 Army Patriot 49.30 30.50 21 16 31 6 2
14 Penn Ivy 45.00 10.70 8 10 2 2 3
15 UMass CAA 43.20 30.50 33 33 40 4 2
16 Denver Big East 41.00 14.40 17 21 16 4 2
17 Notre Dame ACC 39.60 0.00 7 8 6 2 2
18 Virginia ACC 38.10 0.00 15 24 5 4 2
19 Albany America East 36.30 20.70 10 13 11 2 3
20 Duke ACC 32.90 0.00 19 19 20 5 2
21 Richmond SoCon 30.90 29.40 20 22 37 4 3
22 Vermont America East 29.50 27.20 56 62 42 3 1
23 Bryant Northeast 26.00 17.30 39 40 27 3 3
24 Brown Ivy 25.30 6.30 26 39 8 3 2
25 Lehigh Patriot 25.20 18.60 24 15 28 5 1
26 Marist MAAC 24.00 24.00 60 50 57 3 3
27 Drexel CAA 23.70 21.80 30 37 51 3 3
28 Bucknell Patriot 23.50 16.00 35 23 29 5 1
29 Hobart Northeast 22.50 21.50 31 20 52 4 1
30 Harvard Ivy 21.90 7.10 22 27 15 2 2
31 Loyola Patriot 20.30 13.20 34 28 25 4 2
32 Manhattan MAAC 19.90 19.90 55 38 73 3 3
33 Stony Brook America East 17.60 13.50 27 32 56 5 2
34 Mercer SoCon 17.40 17.40 40 25 63 5 1
35 Delaware CAA 17.10 16.10 48 53 69 4 2
36 UMBC America East 16.10 14.80 23 31 48 4 1
37 Rutgers Big Ten 15.80 13.40 50 48 18 2 4
38 Saint Joseph's Northeast 15.20 13.50 43 29 53 5 2
39 Quinnipiac MAAC 14.70 14.70 71 71 74 0 6
40 Air Force SoCon 14.60 14.60 54 51 62 4 3
41 Fairfield CAA 14.60 11.00 16 18 38 4 2
42 Hofstra CAA 14.40 13.60 46 54 54 3 3
43 Detroit Mercy MAAC 13.10 13.10 72 73 68 2 3
44 Boston U. Patriot 12.40 10.60 49 47 34 3 3
45 Marquette Big East 12.20 9.80 62 69 39 3 3
46 Johns Hopkins Big Ten 12.10 10.00 29 26 13 1 4
47 Merrimack Northeast 10.70 10.70 52 65 47 1 5
48 Jacksonville SoCon 10.60 10.50 64 49 65 3 2
49 Siena MAAC 9.60 9.60 59 46 64 2 3
50 High Point SoCon 9.20 9.20 32 43 23 2 6
51 Hartford America East 8.90 8.90 47 45 58 3 3
52 Robert Morris Northeast 8.60 8.50 61 56 66 4 2
53 Michigan Big Ten 8.50 7.60 51 55 41 3 3
54 Navy Patriot 8.50 7.10 41 34 35 3 2
55 UMass Lowell America East 8.50 8.40 45 60 46 3 4
56 Monmouth MAAC 7.40 7.40 68 61 67 2 4
57 St. John's Big East 7.40 6.40 42 35 44 3 3
58 Sacred Heart Northeast 7.10 7.10 58 59 45 1 5
59 VMI SoCon 7.10 7.10 36 36 49 0 4
60 Towson CAA 7.00 7.00 37 57 22 0 6
61 Wagner Northeast 6.90 6.90 65 70 59 1 5
62 Binghamton America East 6.50 6.50 28 30 26 1 5
63 Bellarmine SoCon 6.40 6.40 69 72 61 2 6
64 Canisius MAAC 6.20 6.20 73 74 72 0 5
65 Furman SoCon 5.40 5.40 66 68 33 1 5
66 LIU Northeast 5.30 5.30 74 75 60 1 5
67 St. Bonaventure MAAC 5.10 5.10 70 67 70 0 6
68 Holy Cross Patriot 4.80 2.20 18 9 43 4 3
69 Mount St. Mary's Northeast 4.70 4.70 38 44 30 3 4
70 NJIT Northeast 4.50 4.50 67 66 55 1 6
71 Colgate Patriot 1.40 1.00 44 52 4 0 6
72 Lafayette Patriot 0.80 0.80 57 63 17 0 6
73 Utah Independent 0.60 0.00 53 58 50 3 3
74 Cleveland State Independent 0.00 0.00 63 42 71 2 5
75 Hampton Independent 0.00 0.00 75 64 75 0 5
