Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete list below. Last years accuracy: 13 out of 13 or 100%
 Predictions for the past three years is 35 out of 39 or 89.7%.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division I Championship Tournament

The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 26-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Fourteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 12 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large). Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL AQ AT-LARGE RNK RNK RNK Significant TOP LST 6 TOTAL PROB PROB PROB W-L RPI SOS W L W-L-T W-L-T W L T [1] [3] [2] [4] [5] [6] 1 Boston College 100.00 16.60 100.00 1 2 7 0 0 1-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 2 Delaware State 0.00 16.00 0.00 76 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 3 Howard 0.00 14.00 0.00 76 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 4 Johns Hopkins 100.00 15.10 100.00 1 13 13 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 5 Maryland 100.00 14.20 100.00 1 10 1 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 6 North Carolina 100.00 11.40 100.00 1 1 2 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 3 0 0 7 Northwestern 100.00 14.30 100.00 1 21 9 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 3 0 0 8 Notre Dame 100.00 14.00 100.00 1 15 10 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 3 0 0 9 Ohio State 100.00 13.40 100.00 1 9 12 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 3 0 0 10 Penn 100.00 13.10 100.00 1 6 23 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 0 0 11 Sacred Heart 0.00 11.90 0.00 76 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 12 Stony Brook 0.00 11.50 0.00 76 0 0 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 0 0 13 UMBC 100.00 13.40 100.00 1 3 24 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 14 Virginia 100.00 10.60 100.00 1 4 14 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 15 Syracuse 99.87 7.00 99.86 40 23 4 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 3 1 0 16 Florida 93.84 6.20 93.43 49 11 16 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 17 Albany 86.46 14.50 84.17 1 5 50 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 0 0 18 Duke 82.34 15.00 79.22 41 31 8 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 2 1 0 19 James Madison 68.82 14.30 63.62 41 22 34 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 2 1 0 20 High Point 68.14 20.00 60.17 49 16 36 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 21 Princeton 67.27 12.10 62.77 1 26 30 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 0 0 22 Southern California 52.06 16.30 42.72 1 7 72 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 0 0 23 Virginia Commonwealt 50.48 9.00 45.58 49 34 21 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 24 Fairfield 48.68 10.40 42.72 1 8 73 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 3 0 0 25 San Diego State 47.31 0.00 47.31 1 25 41 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 26 Brown 47.01 12.90 39.16 49 24 39 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 27 Penn State 46.17 13.60 37.69 1 54 6 1 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 28 Navy 43.03 9.40 37.12 49 30 35 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 29 Boston University 42.72 8.90 37.12 49 32 32 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 30 Drexel 42.36 13.30 33.52 49 44 18 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 31 Elon 38.42 14.30 28.14 41 49 19 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 2 1 0 32 Jacksonville 31.24 16.60 17.56 1 17 76 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 0 0 33 Columbia 31.05 12.60 21.11 49 38 38 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 34 Holy Cross 28.71 11.50 19.45 49 12 78 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 35 Michigan 27.89 14.40 15.76 1 37 49 2 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 4 0 0 36 Oregon 25.90 17.00 10.73 70 55 22 0 0 0-2-0 0-0-0 1 2 0 37 Coastal Carolina 25.17 24.30 1.15 41 73 92 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 2 1 0 38 Cincinnati 24.30 19.00 6.54 49 41 52 0 1 0-1-0 0-0-0 2 2 0 39 Vermont 20.88 12.30 9.78 1 14 91 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 40 Arizona State 19.98 15.90 4.85 1 74 48 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 0 0 41 Virginia Tech 19.16 13.50 6.54 49 72 5 1 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 2 0 42 Colorado 18.93 15.60 3.94 49 58 66 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 43 Vanderbilt 18.81 14.60 4.94 1 48 79 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 44 Rutgers 18.64 15.00 4.28 41 94 11 1 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 1 0 45 California 18.30 18.30 0.00 76 36 28 0 2 0-4-0 0-0-0 0 4 0 46 Hofstra 17.46 13.70 4.36 41 67 54 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 2 1 0 47 Mercer 17.40 17.40 0.00 76 103 107 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 48 William & Mary 17.37 14.10 3.80 1 64 53 1 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 49 Wofford 17.20 17.20 0.00 1 93 112 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 0 0 50 Duquesne 17.14 9.60 8.34 1 18 88 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 51 Central Michigan 17.10 17.10 0.00 76 35 86 0 1 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 1 0 52 Stanford 16.90 16.90 0.00 76 46 17 0 1 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 1 0 53 Detroit Mercy 16.65 15.90 0.90 70 59 85 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 2 0 54 Stetson 16.50 16.50 0.00 76 112 63 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 55 Furman 16.40 16.40 0.00 70 79 87 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 2 0 56 Kent State 16.20 16.20 0.00 76 69 59 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 57 Delaware 16.10 16.10 0.00 49 65 110 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 58 Radford 15.90 15.90 0.00 1 101 90 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 0 0 59 East Carolina 15.23 0.00 15.23 41 39 43 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 2 1 0 60 Butler 14.90 14.90 0.00 76 77 81 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 61 Mount St. Mary's 14.76 13.60 1.34 1 92 58 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 0 0 62 Harvard 14.34 13.20 1.32 1 98 26 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 0 0 63 Richmond 14.32 12.00 2.63 1 82 47 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 0 0 64 Towson 14.20 14.20 0.00 76 47 42 0 2 0-2-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 65 Longwood 14.00 13.10 1.03 49 63 80 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 66 Massachusetts-Lowell 13.70 13.70 0.00 76 90 111 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 3 0 67 Robert Morris 13.66 12.50 1.33 1 56 109 1 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 68 Dartmouth 13.30 13.30 0.00 76 28 15 0 1 0-2-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 69 Campbell 13.20 13.20 0.00 76 102 99 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 3 0 70 Iona 13.10 13.10 0.00 76 85 94 0 0 0-2-0 0-0-0 0 4 0 71 Bryant 13.00 13.00 0.00 76 109 51 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 1 0 72 Villanova 12.87 11.10 1.99 49 83 40 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 73 Denver 12.76 9.50 3.60 1 53 61 2 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 3 0 0 74 American 12.74 10.20 2.83 49 33 89 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 75 Marist 12.70 12.70 0.00 76 75 60 0 1 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 76 Central Connecticut 12.60 12.60 0.00 49 84 77 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 77 Gardner-Webb 12.60 12.60 0.00 76 81 97 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 1 0 78 Saint Francis 12.60 12.60 0.00 76 111 95 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 1 0 79 Winthrop 12.60 12.60 0.00 76 71 69 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 4 0 80 Yale 12.47 11.50 1.10 49 76 67 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 81 Kennesaw State 12.40 12.40 0.00 76 91 101 0 0 0-2-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 82 Lafayette 12.39 11.20 1.34 1 62 105 1 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 83 Presbyterian 12.20 12.20 0.00 76 107 108 0 0 0-2-0 0-0-0 0 4 0 84 Canisius 12.10 12.10 0.00 76 27 37 0 1 0-2-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 85 LIU Brooklyn 12.10 12.10 0.00 76 106 103 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 86 Loyola 12.00 12.00 0.00 76 19 20 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 1 0 87 Louisville 11.90 11.90 0.00 76 57 3 0 0 0-2-0 0-0-0 0 3 0 88 Hartford 11.70 11.70 0.00 76 97 70 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 89 Saint Joseph's 11.70 11.70 0.00 76 87 71 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 90 Wagner 11.70 11.70 0.00 70 68 104 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 2 0 91 New Hampshire 11.60 11.60 0.00 76 110 44 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 1 0 92 Massachusetts 11.50 10.30 1.34 1 99 46 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 0 0 93 Monmouth 11.50 11.50 0.00 1 100 100 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 0 0 94 La Salle 11.40 11.40 0.00 1 86 96 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 0 0 95 Binghamton 11.30 11.30 0.00 76 78 25 0 0 0-2-0 0-0-0 0 3 0 96 Cornell 11.30 11.30 0.00 76 108 55 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 1 0 97 Manhattan 10.80 10.80 0.00 76 20 64 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 1 0 98 Niagara 10.72 9.40 1.46 1 60 93 1 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 99 Siena 10.70 10.70 0.00 76 88 56 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 100 Colgate 10.53 8.00 2.76 49 42 74 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 1 0 101 Temple 10.43 9.60 0.91 70 89 45 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 1 2 0 102 Bucknell 9.90 9.90 0.00 76 95 29 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 103 George Washington 9.80 9.80 0.00 76 105 82 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 0 1 0 104 Army 9.50 9.50 0.00 1 70 102 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 4 0 0 105 St. Bonaventure 9.50 9.50 0.00 76 45 68 0 2 0-2-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 106 Davidson 9.41 8.20 1.32 1 51 98 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 107 Lehigh 9.40 9.40 0.00 76 66 57 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 108 Quinnipiac 9.30 9.30 0.00 70 104 106 0 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 1 2 0 109 Georgetown 9.15 3.70 5.66 1 61 27 1 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 2 0 0 110 Marquette 8.59 6.00 2.76 49 50 62 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 2 2 0 111 George Mason 8.50 8.50 0.00 76 29 33 0 1 0-2-0 0-0-0 0 2 0 112 Connecticut 5.40 5.40 0.00 76 43 31 0 0 0-2-0 0-0-0 0 3 0 113 Liberty 4.74 0.40 4.36 41 52 75 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 2 1 0 114 Fresno State 3.70 0.00 3.70 1 40 83 1 0 0-0-0 0-0-0 3 0 0 115 UC Davis 1.14 0.00 1.14 49 80 65 0 0 0-2-0 0-0-0 2 2 0 116 Old Dominion 0.00 0.00 0.00 76 96 84 0 0 0-1-0 0-0-0 0 4 0