Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete list below. Last years accuracy: 13 out of 13 or 100%
 Predictions for the past three years is 35 out of 39 or 89.7%.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division I Championship Tournament

The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large). Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL AQ AT-LARGE RNK RNK RNK Significant TOP LST 6 TOTAL PROB PROB PROB W-L RPI SOS W L W-L-T W-L-T W L T [1] [3] [2] [4] [5] [6] 1 Boston College 100.00 29.20 100.00 1 1 3 0 0 6-0-0 5-0-0 16 0 0 2 Maryland 100.00 32.40 100.00 1 2 6 0 0 5-0-0 5-0-0 16 0 0 3 Syracuse 100.00 24.10 100.00 7 5 4 1 0 1-3-0 5-1-0 14 3 0 4 North Carolina 97.27 23.70 96.42 15 4 2 1 1 3-3-0 3-1-0 11 3 0 5 Notre Dame 94.28 23.00 92.57 4 8 13 2 0 2-2-0 3-1-0 13 2 0 6 Southern California 92.64 28.70 89.68 9 9 10 0 2 1-1-0 3-2-0 13 3 0 7 Princeton 78.72 25.50 71.43 16 7 12 0 1 0-1-0 3-0-0 10 3 0 8 Virginia 74.69 0.00 74.69 30 3 1 0 3 4-5-0 3-2-0 11 5 0 9 Northwestern 73.40 24.20 64.90 26 6 5 0 0 1-4-0 2-1-0 10 4 0 10 Michigan 66.70 20.00 58.38 3 10 26 0 0 1-1-0 3-2-0 14 2 0 11 Loyola 51.30 28.10 32.26 20 12 15 1 1 1-2-0 3-1-0 11 4 0 12 James Madison 43.12 28.30 20.67 9 18 31 1 0 1-2-0 3-0-0 13 3 0 13 Massachusetts 42.90 30.00 18.43 9 23 36 0 1 1-1-0 5-0-0 13 3 0 14 Stony Brook 41.85 29.30 17.75 26 20 25 1 0 1-2-0 3-0-0 10 4 0 15 Florida 41.06 25.70 20.67 40 11 7 0 2 3-5-0 4-0-0 9 6 0 16 Denver 41.00 25.20 21.12 6 15 35 0 1 1-1-0 2-0-0 11 2 0 17 Navy 40.50 23.70 22.02 12 13 27 1 0 0-1-0 3-1-0 12 3 0 18 High Point 37.97 29.40 12.14 19 31 46 2 0 0-2-0 5-0-0 12 4 0 19 Dartmouth 37.81 22.70 19.55 28 16 19 1 0 1-3-0 2-1-0 9 4 0 20 Fairfield 37.38 31.70 8.31 12 34 67 0 1 0-1-0 4-0-0 12 3 0 21 Georgetown 36.99 26.40 14.38 51 24 11 0 0 0-4-0 1-3-0 8 7 0 22 Colorado 36.97 25.60 15.28 46 22 14 2 0 1-3-0 3-1-0 8 6 0 23 Jacksonville 36.09 28.00 11.24 12 36 52 1 1 0-1-0 3-1-0 12 3 0 24 Stanford 35.27 21.30 17.75 20 19 32 0 1 0-3-0 3-1-0 11 4 0 25 Richmond 33.14 21.50 14.83 7 29 48 1 1 0-1-0 2-1-0 14 3 0 26 Penn 32.50 17.70 17.98 28 14 28 0 1 0-2-0 1-2-0 9 4 0 27 Boston University 32.26 23.30 11.69 20 35 43 1 0 1-2-0 4-0-0 11 4 0 28 Hofstra 30.50 18.40 14.83 40 26 18 0 1 3-3-0 2-2-0 9 6 0 29 George Mason 29.74 22.80 8.99 30 41 39 1 2 1-2-0 5-0-0 11 5 0 30 Villanova 29.62 21.90 9.89 40 33 33 0 1 0-3-0 2-2-0 9 6 0 31 Saint Joseph's 29.04 25.70 4.49 44 45 41 1 0 0-3-0 3-3-0 10 7 0 32 Cornell 28.08 27.10 1.35 39 40 65 1 0 0-1-0 2-1-0 8 5 0 33 Albany 27.70 24.30 4.49 46 44 40 0 1 0-2-0 1-1-0 8 6 0 34 Wagner 27.66 22.80 6.29 16 37 69 0 1 0-2-0 1-1-0 10 3 0 35 Mount St. Mary's 27.19 25.00 2.92 5 42 90 1 1 1-0-0 3-0-0 12 2 0 36 Vanderbilt 27.04 22.70 5.62 16 30 79 0 1 1-1-0 2-1-0 10 3 0 37 Coastal Carolina 25.90 25.90 0.00 20 49 92 0 1 0-2-0 2-0-0 11 4 0 38 Furman 25.30 25.30 0.00 51 66 72 0 2 0-3-0 2-0-0 8 7 0 39 Johns Hopkins 24.80 11.00 15.51 37 21 23 1 1 0-2-0 1-2-0 10 6 0 40 Penn State 24.74 11.40 15.06 57 17 9 0 1 0-4-0 2-1-0 7 7 0 41 Cincinnati 24.70 24.70 0.00 35 56 104 1 1 0-1-0 3-0-0 9 5 0 42 Detroit Mercy 24.60 24.60 0.00 57 97 112 1 0 0-0-0 3-0-0 7 7 0 43 Manhattan 24.00 24.00 0.00 33 58 98 0 2 0-2-0 2-2-0 10 5 0 44 Towson 23.80 23.80 0.00 81 43 22 1 0 0-4-0 3-0-0 5 9 0 45 Mercer 23.50 23.50 0.00 60 93 111 3 0 0-0-0 2-2-0 7 8 0 46 Stetson 23.40 23.40 0.00 93 105 96 0 0 0-0-0 2-1-0 4 10 0 47 Longwood 23.30 23.30 0.00 60 87 102 2 1 0-2-0 4-0-0 7 8 0 48 Marquette 22.60 22.60 0.00 51 59 78 1 1 0-2-0 2-0-0 8 7 0 49 Monmouth 22.60 22.60 0.00 30 54 89 0 1 0-2-0 3-2-0 11 5 0 50 New Hampshire 22.60 22.60 0.00 35 74 105 0 0 0-2-0 1-2-0 9 5 0 51 Winthrop 22.30 22.30 0.00 67 92 106 2 0 0-1-0 4-1-0 7 9 0 52 Central Michigan 21.80 21.80 0.00 73 90 80 2 1 0-1-0 2-2-0 6 9 0 53 Siena 21.70 21.70 0.00 37 62 85 1 1 0-1-0 4-1-0 10 6 0 54 California 21.00 21.00 0.00 78 53 21 2 2 1-4-0 2-3-0 6 10 0 55 Army 20.38 12.30 9.21 20 38 51 0 1 1-1-0 3-1-0 11 4 0 56 LIU Brooklyn 20.30 20.30 0.00 69 103 113 2 0 0-0-0 2-1-0 6 8 0 57 Bryant 19.70 19.70 0.00 49 71 97 1 1 0-3-0 0-1-0 7 6 0 58 Kennesaw State 19.60 19.60 0.00 73 81 75 0 1 0-2-0 2-2-0 6 9 0 59 Temple 19.50 19.50 0.00 93 73 44 1 1 0-3-0 1-2-0 4 10 0 60 UMBC 18.10 18.10 0.00 83 85 66 3 1 0-2-0 3-1-0 5 10 0 61 Duke 14.16 0.00 14.16 40 27 20 0 0 0-3-0 1-3-0 9 6 0 62 Liberty 13.48 0.00 13.48 20 25 45 0 3 0-4-0 2-2-0 11 4 0 63 Radford 13.30 13.30 0.00 99 100 95 0 0 0-2-0 1-3-0 3 10 0 64 Virginia Tech 12.81 0.00 12.81 57 28 8 1 0 1-6-0 1-4-0 8 8 0 65 Elon 12.40 12.40 0.00 96 60 34 0 1 0-3-0 1-3-0 4 11 0 66 Colgate 12.30 12.30 0.00 69 70 71 1 2 0-2-0 2-1-0 6 8 0 67 Campbell 11.70 11.70 0.00 83 79 60 0 2 0-4-0 1-3-0 5 10 0 68 Harvard 9.00 0.50 8.54 63 32 17 1 2 1-4-0 1-2-0 6 7 0 69 Ohio State 7.62 0.70 6.97 51 39 29 0 1 0-4-0 1-3-0 8 7 0 70 Robert Morris 7.20 7.20 0.00 33 67 110 0 1 0-2-0 1-1-0 8 4 0 71 William & Mary 7.20 7.20 0.00 63 52 62 1 1 0-1-0 1-2-0 6 7 0 72 Brown 5.80 5.80 0.00 63 51 38 1 1 1-1-0 1-2-0 6 7 0 73 Binghamton 5.50 5.50 0.00 107 106 86 1 0 0-1-0 2-1-0 2 12 0 74 Drexel 5.30 5.30 0.00 69 68 73 3 0 0-1-0 1-2-0 6 8 0 75 Delaware 4.60 4.60 0.00 60 65 77 2 0 0-1-0 1-3-0 7 8 0 76 Sacred Heart 4.60 4.60 0.00 105 104 91 1 1 0-1-0 0-1-0 2 10 0 77 East Carolina 3.80 3.80 0.00 83 89 83 1 0 0-2-0 0-4-0 5 10 0 78 Connecticut 3.60 3.60 0.00 108 75 30 2 1 0-5-0 0-4-0 2 13 0 79 Arizona State 3.40 3.40 0.00 78 77 53 1 0 0-2-0 2-0-0 6 10 0 80 Wofford 2.80 2.80 0.00 101 114 114 2 0 0-1-0 1-3-0 3 12 0 81 Old Dominion 2.10 2.10 0.00 101 83 49 0 0 0-3-0 0-4-0 3 12 0 82 Delaware State 2.00 2.00 0.00 111 116 116 1 0 0-0-0 0-2-0 1 9 0 83 Kent State 2.00 2.00 0.00 108 110 84 0 0 0-3-0 1-3-0 2 13 0 84 Butler 1.80 1.80 0.00 101 101 70 0 1 0-3-0 0-4-0 3 12 0 85 Howard 1.10 1.10 0.00 116 115 115 0 1 0-1-0 0-2-0 0 10 0 86 Saint Francis 0.40 0.40 0.00 98 102 108 1 1 0-2-0 0-2-0 3 9 0 87 Yale 0.40 0.40 0.00 63 76 94 2 0 0-1-0 2-1-0 6 7 0 88 Columbia 0.30 0.30 0.00 92 64 50 2 1 0-2-0 1-1-0 4 9 0 89 Holy Cross 0.30 0.30 0.00 93 91 64 1 1 0-2-0 1-2-0 4 10 0 90 Rutgers 0.30 0.30 0.00 81 47 24 0 2 0-3-0 0-3-0 5 9 0 91 Massachusetts-Lowell 0.20 0.20 0.00 96 98 109 2 2 0-1-0 1-3-0 4 11 0 92 American 0.00 0.00 0.00 73 82 74 1 3 0-2-0 0-1-0 6 9 0 93 Bucknell 0.00 0.00 0.00 100 88 58 2 1 0-1-0 0-3-0 3 11 0 94 Canisius 0.00 0.00 0.00 108 94 42 0 1 0-2-0 2-2-0 2 13 0 95 Central Connecticut 0.00 0.00 0.00 106 111 103 0 0 0-1-0 0-2-0 2 11 0 96 Davidson 0.00 0.00 0.00 67 69 76 2 2 0-2-0 0-5-0 7 9 0 97 Duquesne 0.00 0.00 0.00 51 61 87 0 1 0-2-0 2-3-0 8 7 0 98 Fresno State 0.00 0.00 0.00 45 57 100 1 0 0-1-0 1-2-0 7 5 0 99 Gardner-Webb 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 107 107 1 0 0-2-0 1-4-0 6 10 0 100 George Washington 0.00 0.00 0.00 89 86 57 3 2 0-2-0 1-4-0 5 11 0 101 Hartford 0.00 0.00 0.00 112 113 99 0 1 0-0-0 0-4-0 1 14 0 102 Iona 0.00 0.00 0.00 113 108 56 1 0 0-2-0 0-5-0 1 15 0 103 La Salle 0.00 0.00 0.00 83 84 63 1 0 0-3-0 1-3-0 5 10 0 104 Lafayette 0.00 0.00 0.00 83 99 93 2 1 0-0-0 0-4-0 5 10 0 105 Lehigh 0.00 0.00 0.00 69 55 54 1 1 0-1-0 2-1-0 6 8 0 106 Louisville 0.00 0.00 0.00 89 46 16 1 2 0-5-0 1-4-0 5 11 0 107 Marist 0.00 0.00 0.00 73 63 47 0 0 0-3-0 1-1-0 6 9 0 108 Niagara 0.00 0.00 0.00 89 96 61 1 0 0-3-0 2-3-0 5 11 0 109 Oregon 0.00 0.00 0.00 104 80 37 2 0 1-2-0 1-4-0 3 13 0 110 Presbyterian 0.00 0.00 0.00 113 112 81 0 1 0-4-0 0-3-0 1 15 0 111 Quinnipiac 0.00 0.00 0.00 83 95 88 1 1 0-2-0 1-3-0 5 10 0 112 San Diego State 0.00 0.00 0.00 51 48 55 1 3 1-2-0 0-4-0 8 7 0 113 St. Bonaventure 0.00 0.00 0.00 113 109 82 0 0 0-2-0 0-5-0 1 15 0 114 UC Davis 0.00 0.00 0.00 48 50 59 1 2 0-3-0 3-1-0 9 7 0 115 Vermont 0.00 0.00 0.00 49 78 101 2 2 0-0-0 0-3-0 7 6 0 116 Virginia Commonwealt 0.00 0.00 0.00 73 72 68 2 3 0-3-0 2-2-0 6 9 0