Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete list below. Last years accuracy: 13 out of 13 or 100%
 Predictions for the past three years is 35 out of 39 or 89.7%.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Women s Division I Championship Tournament

The NCAA Division I Women s Lacrosse Championship is a 28-team single-elimination tournament, with the top 8 teams seeded. Fifteen conferences receive a berth via automatic qualification (AQ). The remaining 13 teams selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid, then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. TOP WLT = record against top teams. Lst 6 = last 6 games. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss record [2] Strength of schedule [3] Rating Percentage Index (RPI) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results vs. common opponents [4] Significant wins/losses (based on RPI of two teams) [5] Evaluation of the 10 highest-rated teams on an inst. schedule (defined by SOS and W-L%) Secondary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [6] Late-season performance (last six games) [-] Results against teams already selected (AQ and At-Large). Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? RNK TEAMNAME TOTAL AQ AT-LARGE RNK RNK RNK Significant TOP LST 6 TOTAL PROB PROB PROB W-L RPI SOS W L W-L-T W-L-T W L T [1] [3] [2] [4] [5] [6] 1 Fairfield 100.00 100.00 0.00 8 33 75 0 1 0-1-0 6-0-0 15 3 0 2 Florida 100.00 100.00 0.00 28 8 7 0 2 3-6-0 6-0-0 13 6 0 3 Georgetown 100.00 100.00 0.00 44 25 14 1 1 1-5-0 4-2-0 11 8 0 4 High Point 100.00 100.00 0.00 14 27 51 1 1 0-2-0 6-0-0 15 4 0 5 Jacksonville 100.00 100.00 0.00 4 29 57 0 1 0-1-0 6-0-0 16 3 0 6 James Madison 100.00 100.00 0.00 4 16 29 0 0 1-2-0 6-0-0 16 3 0 7 Loyola 100.00 100.00 0.00 14 11 17 1 1 2-2-0 6-0-0 15 4 0 8 Mercer 100.00 100.00 0.00 54 82 110 2 1 0-1-0 4-2-0 10 9 0 9 North Carolina 100.00 100.00 0.00 8 3 4 1 1 5-3-0 6-0-0 15 3 0 10 Northwestern 100.00 100.00 0.00 20 4 1 1 1 4-4-0 5-1-0 14 4 0 11 Princeton 100.00 100.00 0.00 12 7 13 0 1 2-1-0 6-0-0 14 3 0 12 Richmond 100.00 100.00 0.00 3 23 46 1 1 1-1-0 5-1-0 17 3 0 13 Southern California 100.00 100.00 0.00 4 9 19 0 2 1-2-0 4-2-0 16 3 0 14 Stony Brook 100.00 100.00 0.00 14 19 32 2 1 1-2-0 6-0-0 15 4 0 15 Wagner 100.00 100.00 0.00 8 31 44 0 2 1-1-0 6-0-0 15 3 0 16 Boston College 100.00 0.00 100.00 1 2 5 0 1 8-1-0 5-1-0 19 1 0 17 Maryland 100.00 0.00 100.00 2 1 6 0 1 6-1-0 5-1-0 18 1 0 18 Michigan 100.00 0.00 100.00 8 10 25 0 0 1-3-0 3-3-0 15 3 0 19 Syracuse 100.00 0.00 100.00 14 5 2 1 0 3-4-0 4-2-0 15 4 0 20 Virginia 100.00 0.00 100.00 29 6 3 0 1 5-6-0 3-3-0 12 6 0 21 Navy 58.74 0.00 58.74 14 12 23 1 0 0-3-0 5-1-0 15 4 0 22 Notre Dame 47.19 0.00 47.19 21 15 22 2 1 1-3-0 3-3-0 13 4 0 23 Penn 46.68 0.00 46.68 25 13 21 0 1 0-4-0 3-3-0 12 5 0 24 Dartmouth 45.14 0.00 45.14 27 17 18 1 0 1-4-0 4-1-0 11 5 0 25 Denver 44.63 0.00 44.63 12 14 37 0 2 2-1-0 4-1-0 14 3 0 26 Colorado 40.01 0.00 40.01 41 21 10 1 1 1-5-0 4-2-0 10 7 0 27 Hofstra 37.96 0.00 37.96 33 28 15 1 1 3-4-0 3-3-0 12 7 0 28 Johns Hopkins 37.44 0.00 37.44 41 20 16 1 1 1-5-0 2-4-0 10 7 0 29 Massachusetts 37.44 0.00 37.44 14 22 41 0 2 1-2-0 5-1-0 15 4 0 30 Duke 35.39 0.00 35.39 44 26 11 1 0 1-6-0 3-3-0 11 8 0 31 Stanford 34.88 0.00 34.88 24 24 34 2 0 1-3-0 5-1-0 13 5 0 32 Liberty 32.31 0.00 32.31 22 30 35 0 0 0-5-0 3-3-0 14 5 0 33 Army 24.11 0.00 24.11 22 34 47 0 2 1-3-0 4-2-0 14 5 0 34 Albany 19.49 0.00 19.49 37 42 33 0 1 0-4-0 4-2-0 11 7 0 35 Villanova 19.49 0.00 19.49 48 36 28 1 1 0-5-0 3-3-0 10 8 0 36 Boston University 17.44 0.00 17.44 37 39 40 1 2 1-4-0 3-3-0 11 7 0 37 Mount St. Mary's 17.44 0.00 17.44 4 35 77 1 1 1-1-0 5-1-0 16 3 0 38 Ohio State 12.82 0.00 12.82 51 38 36 0 1 0-5-0 2-4-0 9 8 0 39 George Mason 10.77 0.00 10.77 37 47 45 2 3 1-3-0 4-2-0 11 7 0 40 Cornell 8.21 0.00 8.21 55 40 39 0 0 0-4-0 1-4-0 8 8 0 41 Saint Joseph's 5.13 0.00 5.13 44 46 50 1 1 0-4-0 3-3-0 11 8 0 42 San Diego State 1.03 0.00 1.03 37 43 68 1 3 0-2-0 3-3-0 11 7 0 43 Siena 1.03 0.00 1.03 33 57 58 0 2 0-2-0 4-2-0 12 7 0 44 Vanderbilt 1.03 0.00 1.03 36 41 71 1 3 1-1-0 1-4-0 10 6 0 45 AAC 0.00 0.00 0.00 69 85 79 1 2 0-3-0 1-5-0 7 10 0 46 Arizona State 0.00 0.00 0.00 83 80 52 1 0 0-2-0 2-4-0 6 12 0 47 Binghamton 0.00 0.00 0.00 109 107 84 1 0 0-2-0 2-4-0 2 15 0 48 Brown 0.00 0.00 0.00 49 48 60 2 1 1-1-0 3-2-0 8 7 0 49 Bryant 0.00 0.00 0.00 58 65 56 1 2 0-5-0 2-4-0 8 9 0 50 Bucknell 0.00 0.00 0.00 102 88 69 2 1 0-2-0 0-5-0 3 13 0 51 Butler 0.00 0.00 0.00 103 105 85 0 1 0-2-0 0-6-0 3 14 0 52 California 0.00 0.00 0.00 79 50 20 1 2 1-5-0 2-4-0 7 12 0 53 Campbell 0.00 0.00 0.00 80 75 49 0 2 0-5-0 2-4-0 6 11 0 54 Canisius 0.00 0.00 0.00 105 93 48 0 1 0-4-0 3-3-0 3 15 0 55 Central Connecticut 0.00 0.00 0.00 107 111 102 0 0 0-2-0 0-5-0 2 14 0 56 Central Michigan 0.00 0.00 0.00 75 94 92 2 0 0-1-0 2-4-0 7 11 0 57 Cincinnati 0.00 0.00 0.00 33 52 78 2 1 0-1-0 4-2-0 12 7 0 58 Coastal Carolina 0.00 0.00 0.00 29 53 98 0 1 0-2-0 4-2-0 12 6 0 59 Colgate 0.00 0.00 0.00 63 59 42 2 2 0-4-0 3-3-0 8 10 0 60 Columbia 0.00 0.00 0.00 96 68 61 2 1 0-2-0 1-4-0 4 11 0 61 Connecticut 0.00 0.00 0.00 103 77 30 2 0 0-4-0 1-5-0 3 14 0 62 Davidson 0.00 0.00 0.00 58 69 94 1 2 0-2-0 1-5-0 8 9 0 63 Delaware 0.00 0.00 0.00 69 72 83 3 0 0-1-0 1-5-0 7 10 0 64 Delaware State 0.00 0.00 0.00 111 116 116 1 0 0-0-0 0-4-0 1 11 0 65 Detroit Mercy 0.00 0.00 0.00 63 91 96 1 0 0-1-0 3-3-0 8 10 0 66 Drexel 0.00 0.00 0.00 77 76 91 3 0 0-1-0 1-4-0 6 10 0 67 Duquesne 0.00 0.00 0.00 51 63 106 0 1 0-3-0 3-3-0 9 8 0 68 East Carolina 0.00 0.00 0.00 90 95 99 2 0 0-1-0 0-6-0 5 12 0 69 Elon 0.00 0.00 0.00 83 49 27 0 1 0-4-0 3-3-0 6 12 0 70 Fresno State 0.00 0.00 0.00 55 67 93 2 0 0-1-0 0-4-0 7 7 0 71 Furman 0.00 0.00 0.00 44 70 82 0 2 0-2-0 5-1-0 11 8 0 72 Gardner-Webb 0.00 0.00 0.00 77 106 111 1 0 0-2-0 1-4-0 6 10 0 73 George Washington 0.00 0.00 0.00 90 84 64 3 3 0-3-0 1-5-0 5 12 0 74 Hartford 0.00 0.00 0.00 112 114 104 0 0 0-1-0 0-6-0 1 16 0 75 Harvard 0.00 0.00 0.00 72 44 24 2 2 1-4-0 1-4-0 6 9 0 76 Holy Cross 0.00 0.00 0.00 97 92 62 1 1 0-3-0 1-4-0 4 12 0 77 Howard 0.00 0.00 0.00 116 115 112 0 1 0-1-0 0-5-0 0 13 0 78 Iona 0.00 0.00 0.00 112 108 72 1 0 0-2-0 0-6-0 1 16 0 79 Kennesaw State 0.00 0.00 0.00 63 83 81 0 0 0-2-0 3-3-0 8 10 0 80 Kent State 0.00 0.00 0.00 109 109 73 0 1 0-3-0 1-5-0 2 15 0 81 La Salle 0.00 0.00 0.00 87 89 80 2 0 0-3-0 1-4-0 5 11 0 82 Lafayette 0.00 0.00 0.00 90 99 89 2 0 0-2-0 0-6-0 5 12 0 83 Lehigh 0.00 0.00 0.00 58 54 55 1 1 0-2-0 4-2-0 8 9 0 84 LIU Brooklyn 0.00 0.00 0.00 80 98 101 0 0 0-2-0 2-4-0 6 11 0 85 Longwood 0.00 0.00 0.00 58 90 108 3 1 0-2-0 5-1-0 8 9 0 86 Louisville 0.00 0.00 0.00 95 45 12 1 2 0-7-0 1-5-0 5 13 0 87 Manhattan 0.00 0.00 0.00 32 64 105 2 2 0-2-0 3-3-0 11 6 0 88 Marist 0.00 0.00 0.00 63 62 54 0 1 0-4-0 3-3-0 8 10 0 89 Marquette 0.00 0.00 0.00 55 55 53 2 1 0-4-0 3-3-0 9 9 0 90 Massachusetts-Lowell 0.00 0.00 0.00 90 103 113 2 1 0-2-0 2-4-0 5 12 0 91 Monmouth 0.00 0.00 0.00 29 60 97 0 0 0-2-0 3-3-0 12 6 0 92 New Hampshire 0.00 0.00 0.00 41 73 100 0 0 0-2-0 2-4-0 10 7 0 93 Niagara 0.00 0.00 0.00 90 97 76 1 0 0-3-0 2-4-0 5 12 0 94 Old Dominion 0.00 0.00 0.00 98 87 67 1 0 0-3-0 1-5-0 4 13 0 95 Oregon 0.00 0.00 0.00 105 81 38 2 0 1-2-0 1-5-0 3 15 0 96 Penn State 0.00 0.00 0.00 58 18 8 0 1 0-8-0 3-3-0 8 9 0 97 Presbyterian 0.00 0.00 0.00 112 112 88 0 1 0-4-0 0-6-0 1 16 0 98 Quinnipiac 0.00 0.00 0.00 87 96 86 1 1 0-2-0 1-4-0 5 11 0 99 Radford 0.00 0.00 0.00 101 102 109 1 0 0-2-0 1-4-0 3 11 0 100 Robert Morris 0.00 0.00 0.00 25 61 115 0 1 0-3-0 5-1-0 12 5 0 101 Rutgers 0.00 0.00 0.00 87 56 31 0 2 0-4-0 0-5-0 5 11 0 102 Sacred Heart 0.00 0.00 0.00 107 100 65 0 2 0-3-0 0-5-0 2 14 0 103 Saint Francis 0.00 0.00 0.00 83 101 107 2 1 0-2-0 2-3-0 5 10 0 104 St. Bonaventure 0.00 0.00 0.00 112 110 87 1 0 0-2-0 0-6-0 1 16 0 105 Stetson 0.00 0.00 0.00 98 104 95 0 0 0-1-0 2-4-0 4 13 0 106 Temple 0.00 0.00 0.00 80 66 43 2 2 0-3-0 3-3-0 6 11 0 107 Towson 0.00 0.00 0.00 69 37 26 1 0 0-6-0 5-1-0 7 10 0 108 UC Davis 0.00 0.00 0.00 51 51 59 1 1 0-3-0 3-3-0 9 8 0 109 UMBC 0.00 0.00 0.00 83 79 66 2 1 0-4-0 3-3-0 6 12 0 110 Vermont 0.00 0.00 0.00 49 78 103 2 2 0-1-0 1-4-0 8 7 0 111 Virginia Commonwealt 0.00 0.00 0.00 75 71 63 3 3 0-3-0 3-3-0 7 11 0 112 Virginia Tech 0.00 0.00 0.00 63 32 9 1 0 1-7-0 0-6-0 8 10 0 113 William & Mary 0.00 0.00 0.00 72 58 70 1 1 0-2-0 1-4-0 6 9 0 114 Winthrop 0.00 0.00 0.00 68 86 90 3 3 0-2-0 3-3-0 8 11 0 115 Wofford 0.00 0.00 0.00 98 113 114 1 0 0-1-0 2-4-0 4 13 0 116 Yale 0.00 0.00 0.00 72 74 74 1 0 0-2-0 2-3-0 6 9 0