Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below. Last years at-large accuracy: 8 out of 8 or 100%.
 Last 6 years at-large accuracy: 46 out of 48 or 95.8%.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the MCLA Men s Division II Championship Tournament

For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide. The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins) [5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results against common opponents [-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI) [-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI) [-] Location of the contests Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Note that the SOS on Laxpower computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. RNK TEAMNAME TOURN AUTO AT-LARGE RANK RNK SIGNIFICANT TOTAL SEL QUAL SEL RPI QW SOS RPI+QW+SOS/2 RPI W L W L T PROB PROB PROB SUM [3] [4] [2] [5] [6] [7] [8] [1] 1 Baylor 100.00 25.00 100.00 5 6 8 15.00 0 0 0 0 8 3 0 2 Dayton 100.00 26.70 100.00 4 3 4 9.00 0 0 0 0 8 2 0 3 Grand Valley State 100.00 23.50 100.00 3 5 5 10.50 0 0 0 0 7 1 0 4 Kennesaw State 100.00 23.80 100.00 2 4 6 9.00 0 0 0 0 8 1 0 5 Minn.-Duluth 100.00 27.30 100.00 1 1 3 3.50 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 6 St. Thomas 100.00 22.50 100.00 6 8 1 14.50 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 7 UT-San Antonio 51.61 23.60 36.66 7 7 10 19.00 0 0 0 0 6 2 0 8 College of Idaho 51.51 28.40 32.27 8 2 24 22.00 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 9 UC Davis 42.01 31.40 15.47 12 10 28 36.00 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 10 Utah State 41.52 27.20 19.67 9 16 14 32.00 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 11 North Florida 40.44 27.20 18.19 11 13 17 32.50 0 0 0 0 10 2 0 12 Central Conn. State 36.27 28.50 10.86 18 14 21 42.50 0 0 0 0 9 4 0 13 Rice 32.88 20.60 15.47 10 9 33 35.50 0 0 0 0 6 1 0 14 Oklahoma State 28.90 28.90 0.00 37 11 78 87.00 0 0 0 0 8 2 0 15 UC Santa Cruz 28.03 24.10 5.18 15 28 19 52.50 0 0 0 0 10 3 0 16 Loyola Marymount 27.00 25.30 2.27 21 12 57 61.50 0 0 0 0 8 1 0 17 Central Washington 25.70 25.70 0.00 35 36 69 105.50 0 0 0 0 6 2 0 18 San Diego 24.90 24.90 0.00 34 59 32 109.00 0 0 0 0 5 4 0 19 Montana 23.60 23.60 0.00 26 44 34 87.00 0 0 0 0 7 5 0 20 Rhode Island 23.58 21.50 2.65 19 15 50 59.00 0 0 0 0 6 1 0 21 Western Oregon 22.30 22.30 0.00 29 31 52 86.00 0 0 0 0 7 3 0 22 St. Mary's 21.10 21.10 0.00 43 55 25 110.50 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 23 Montana State 20.50 20.50 0.00 27 46 26 86.00 0 0 0 0 6 5 0 24 UC San Diego 19.70 19.70 0.00 31 45 43 97.50 0 0 0 0 6 3 0 25 UNC-Charlotte 18.70 18.70 0.00 30 30 58 89.00 0 0 0 0 9 3 0 26 Wyoming 18.70 18.70 0.00 60 60 67 153.50 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 27 Bridgewater State 18.36 18.00 0.44 23 34 31 72.50 0 0 0 0 5 2 0 28 Northern Arizona 17.33 14.30 3.53 20 17 40 57.00 0 0 0 0 7 2 0 29 Stonehill 17.10 17.10 0.00 33 47 51 105.50 0 0 0 0 6 3 0 30 Colorado Denver 16.50 16.50 0.00 39 49 47 111.50 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 31 Charleston 13.24 13.20 0.04 24 48 20 82.00 0 0 0 0 5 4 0 32 Humboldt State 12.70 12.70 0.00 63 74 35 154.50 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 33 Tulane 11.91 0.00 11.91 13 20 16 41.00 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 34 St. Edward's 10.86 0.00 10.86 16 19 15 42.50 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 35 San Jose State 10.70 10.70 0.00 57 76 13 139.50 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 36 Florida Gulf Coast 10.35 4.80 5.83 17 29 9 50.50 0 0 0 0 5 4 0 37 Occidental 9.80 9.80 0.00 86 41 86 170.00 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 38 Florida Atlantic 9.60 9.60 0.00 32 37 49 93.50 0 0 0 0 7 3 0 39 St. John's 8.09 0.00 8.09 14 32 2 47.00 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 40 Colorado Mines 7.60 7.60 0.00 72 58 76 168.00 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 41 Northern Colorado 6.60 6.60 0.00 49 64 27 126.50 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 42 Westfield State 6.00 6.00 0.00 44 53 61 127.50 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 43 Southern Conn. State 4.40 4.40 0.00 64 51 64 147.00 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 44 New Haven 3.90 3.90 0.00 47 85 30 147.00 0 0 0 0 4 7 0 45 Biola 3.10 3.10 0.00 42 43 55 112.50 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 47 Wake Forest 2.72 2.70 0.02 28 33 44 83.00 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 48 MSU Denver 2.60 2.60 0.00 56 75 59 160.50 0 0 0 0 5 6 0 49 Dallas Baptist 1.90 1.90 0.00 65 62 75 164.50 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 50 Worcester State 0.60 0.60 0.00 75 66 80 181.00 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 51 TAMU Galveston 0.57 0.00 0.57 22 26 46 71.00 0 0 0 0 4 1 0 53 Cal State San Marcos 0.10 0.10 0.00 41 81 12 128.00 0 0 0 0 3 7 0 54 Abilene Christian 0.00 0.00 0.00 83 39 79 161.50 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 55 Appalachian State 0.00 0.00 0.00 48 61 37 127.50 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 56 Bridgeport 0.00 0.00 0.00 77 91 54 195.00 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 57 Cal stateChannel Isl 0.00 0.00 0.00 74 88 66 195.00 0 0 0 0 1 8 0 58 CSU Long Beach 0.00 0.00 0.00 66 35 84 143.00 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 59 Centenary (LA) 0.00 0.00 0.00 84 71 81 195.50 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 60 Coastal Carolina 0.00 0.00 0.00 67 84 39 170.50 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 61 Columbus State 0.00 0.00 0.00 61 67 65 160.50 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 62 Creighton 0.00 0.00 0.00 82 72 73 190.50 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 63 Davidson 0.00 0.00 0.00 73 73 48 170.00 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 64 Emory 0.00 0.00 0.00 80 77 71 192.50 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 65 Fort Lewis 0.00 0.00 0.00 76 89 53 191.50 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 66 Framingham State 0.00 0.00 0.00 59 63 36 140.00 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 67 Georgia Southern 0.00 0.00 0.00 58 82 38 159.00 0 0 0 0 2 7 0 68 Gonzaga 0.00 0.00 0.00 50 68 41 138.50 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 69 Hardin-Simmons 0.00 0.00 0.00 70 56 63 157.50 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 70 Incarnate Word 0.00 0.00 0.00 55 69 11 129.50 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 71 Kansas State 0.00 0.00 0.00 81 70 82 192.00 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 72 Louisiana 0.00 0.00 0.00 46 54 42 121.00 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 73 Louisiana Tech 0.00 0.00 0.00 62 57 60 149.00 0 0 0 0 2 4 0 75 Missouri State 0.00 0.00 0.00 40 52 22 103.00 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 76 North Dakota State 0.00 0.00 0.00 25 40 7 68.50 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 77 Pacific Lutheran 0.00 0.00 0.00 79 90 70 204.00 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 78 Portland 0.00 0.00 0.00 52 78 29 144.50 0 0 0 0 3 7 0 81 St. Louis 0.00 0.00 0.00 53 18 85 113.50 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 82 Seattle University 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 87 74 202.00 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 83 Southeastern Louisia 0.00 0.00 0.00 38 50 23 99.50 0 0 0 0 2 3 0 84 Southern Oregon 0.00 0.00 0.00 36 42 56 106.00 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 85 TAMU Corpus Christi 0.00 0.00 0.00 51 65 18 125.00 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 86 Tarleton State 0.00 0.00 0.00 85 79 83 205.50 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 87 Trinity 0.00 0.00 0.00 45 38 45 105.50 0 0 0 0 3 3 0 88 UC Irvine 0.00 0.00 0.00 69 80 72 185.00 0 0 0 0 3 8 0 89 WPI 0.00 0.00 0.00 68 83 62 182.00 0 0 0 0 2 6 0 90 Washington (Mo.) 0.00 0.00 0.00 54 21 77 113.50 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 91 Western Washington 0.00 0.00 0.00 71 86 68 191.00 0 0 0 0 2 6 0