Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below. Last years at-large accuracy: 8 out of 8 or 100%.
 Last 6 years at-large accuracy: 46 out of 48 or 95.8%.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division I Championship Tournament

For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide. The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss records [2] strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [3] Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [4] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [5] Power Ratings Rank) Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Note that the SOS on Laxpower computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? RNK TEAMNAME TOURN AUTO AT-LARGE RANK TOTAL SEL QUAL SEL RPI QW SOS PR W L T PROB PROB PROB [3] [4] [2] [5] [1] 1 Biola 0.00 11.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 2 Bridgewater State 0.00 10.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 3 CSU Long Beach 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 4 Central Conn. State 0.00 16.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 5 Colorado Denver 0.00 8.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 6 Colorado Mines 0.00 21.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 7 Columbus State 0.00 7.20 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 8 Dayton 0.00 18.20 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 9 Florida Gulf Coast 0.00 2.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 10 Fort Lewis 0.00 3.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 11 Framingham State 0.00 0.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 12 Grand Valley State 0.00 10.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 13 MSU Denver 0.00 0.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 14 New Haven 0.00 11.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 15 Occidental 0.00 18.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 16 Pacific Lutheran 0.00 8.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 17 Providence 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 18 Rice 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 19 St. Mary's 0.00 13.20 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 20 San Diego 0.00 0.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 21 San Jose State 0.00 20.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 22 Southern Conn. State 0.00 12.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 23 St. Thomas 0.00 18.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 24 Stonehill 0.00 10.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 25 UC Colorado Springs 0.00 1.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 26 UC San Diego 0.00 2.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 27 WPI 0.00 12.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 28 Westfield State 0.00 7.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 29 Worcester State 0.00 6.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 30 Wyoming 0.00 18.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 31 Minn.-Duluth 80.49 17.30 76.40 2 17 19 79.90 1 0 0 32 North Dakota State 75.99 15.60 71.55 32 43 50 76.90 1 1 0 33 St. John's 74.84 20.00 68.55 10 22 48 73.90 1 0 0 34 Rhode Island 74.73 0.00 74.73 3 5 46 70.25 2 1 0 35 Kennesaw State 65.03 17.10 57.81 4 1 5 61.37 4 0 0 36 UT-San Antonio 64.23 12.60 59.07 23 9 8 62.17 3 0 0 37 UNC-Charlotte 63.59 13.70 57.81 33 11 24 63.12 3 0 0 38 Louisiana Tech 60.80 12.20 55.36 28 8 41 61.97 2 0 0 39 Montana 56.83 8.20 52.97 37 80 2 64.91 1 2 0 40 St. Edward's 54.56 10.00 49.52 6 3 44 60.17 3 1 0 41 Cal State San Marcos 52.68 4.10 50.65 44 12 15 65.42 1 0 0 42 Loyola Marymount 47.06 10.50 40.85 1 16 40 59.94 2 0 0 43 Florida Atlantic 46.20 19.90 32.83 8 2 21 56.11 3 0 0 44 Baylor 46.07 17.30 34.78 18 4 11 57.59 3 2 0 45 Montana State 45.34 14.90 35.77 45 18 25 60.92 1 0 0 46 Wake Forest 42.23 4.00 39.82 5 10 34 58.80 2 1 0 47 Kansas State 42.02 11.10 34.78 34 14 39 59.92 1 0 0 48 Northern Arizona 40.65 9.00 34.78 46 19 51 60.92 1 0 0 49 Southeastern Louisia 40.33 7.10 35.77 24 20 29 58.25 2 2 0 50 Washington (Mo.) 39.40 2.60 37.78 29 6 57 57.92 3 1 0 51 UC Davis 33.22 25.40 10.48 22 23 37 53.94 1 1 0 52 North Florida 31.14 5.50 27.13 17 67 4 55.91 3 2 0 53 UC Santa Cruz 29.58 20.60 11.31 35 58 6 53.94 1 1 0 54 Tulane 27.28 0.20 27.13 7 64 17 69.25 0 1 0 55 Southern Oregon 22.06 2.70 19.90 47 21 49 56.42 1 0 0 56 Cal stateChannel Isl 21.30 21.30 0.00 54 72 54 42.42 0 2 0 57 Humboldt State 20.00 20.00 0.00 56 76 13 51.42 0 1 0 58 Northern Colorado 19.70 19.70 0.00 58 78 59 46.92 0 1 0 59 Central Washington 18.30 18.30 0.00 27 7 47 41.92 2 0 0 60 Western Washington 16.70 16.70 0.00 31 24 52 43.92 1 0 0 61 Charleston 16.39 6.60 10.48 36 73 7 55.36 0 2 0 62 UC Irvine 15.60 15.60 0.00 60 56 56 53.92 0 1 0 63 Bridgeport 14.68 11.90 3.16 53 27 62 53.92 0 1 0 64 Western Oregon 13.40 13.40 0.00 50 84 10 49.93 1 2 0 65 College of Idaho 13.20 13.20 0.00 30 13 16 52.92 1 0 0 66 Georgia Southern 13.00 13.00 0.00 40 65 22 47.56 1 1 0 67 Portland 12.70 12.70 0.00 43 70 14 41.91 1 1 0 68 Utah State 10.80 10.80 0.00 61 59 18 53.92 0 1 0 69 Coastal Carolina 9.40 9.40 0.00 9 31 32 46.68 1 1 0 70 Abilene Christian 8.12 2.70 5.57 52 25 28 53.92 0 1 0 71 Dallas Baptist 8.00 8.00 0.00 41 81 42 42.25 1 2 0 72 Louisiana 7.90 7.90 0.00 12 15 43 48.25 1 0 0 73 Seattle University 6.60 6.60 0.00 51 88 45 28.93 0 2 0 74 Marymount California 6.50 6.50 0.00 57 77 60 46.92 0 2 0 75 Oklahoma State 5.60 5.60 0.00 19 69 38 50.59 0 2 0 76 TAMU Corpus Christi 2.50 2.50 0.00 20 71 35 53.59 0 1 0 77 Emory 1.60 1.60 0.00 38 90 30 41.44 0 4 0 78 Gonzaga 0.20 0.20 0.00 15 75 9 41.92 0 1 0 79 Tarleton State 0.20 0.20 0.00 39 89 55 48.37 0 3 0 80 Appalachian State 0.00 0.00 0.00 14 68 1 52.97 1 2 0 81 Centenary (LA) 0.00 0.00 0.00 49 85 23 35.25 0 2 0 82 Creighton 0.00 0.00 0.00 16 74 26 49.92 0 1 0 83 Davidson 0.00 0.00 0.00 55 35 36 53.92 0 1 0 84 Hardin-Simmons 0.00 0.00 0.00 25 66 31 47.77 1 1 0 85 Incarnate Word 0.00 0.00 0.00 11 82 3 42.17 0 3 0 86 Missouri S&T 0.00 0.00 0.00 42 86 27 52.92 0 4 0 87 Missouri State 0.00 0.00 0.00 26 87 33 53.80 0 3 0 88 Portland State 0.00 0.00 0.00 48 91 53 38.92 2 5 0 89 St. Louis 0.00 0.00 0.00 59 48 58 53.92 0 1 0 90 TAMU Galveston 0.00 0.00 0.00 13 83 12 54.57 0 2 0 91 Trinity 0.00 0.00 0.00 21 79 20 54.17 0 1 0