Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below. Last years at-large accuracy: 8 out of 8 or 100%.
 Last 6 years at-large accuracy: 46 out of 48 or 95.8%.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the MCLA Men s Division I Championship Tournament

For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide. The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins) [5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results against common opponents [-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI) [-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI) [-] Location of the contests Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Note that the SOS on Laxpower computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The MCLA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? RNK TEAMNAME TOURN AUTO AT-LARGE RANK RNK SIGNIFICANT TOTAL SEL QUAL SEL RPI QW SOS RPI+QW+SOS/2 RPI W L W L T PROB PROB PROB SUM [3] [4] [2] [5] [6] [7] [8] [1] 1 California 100.00 29.80 100.00 1 2 7 6.50 0 0 0 0 12 0 0 2 Chapman 100.00 26.30 100.00 3 3 9 10.50 0 0 0 0 13 2 0 3 Georgia Tech 100.00 24.20 100.00 2 1 13 9.50 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 4 South Carolina 100.00 15.20 100.00 4 5 11 14.50 0 0 0 0 13 2 0 5 Colorado 66.66 28.30 53.50 5 10 8 19.00 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 6 Cal Poly 62.99 20.40 53.50 7 9 6 19.00 0 0 0 0 8 3 0 7 Connecticut 62.62 24.90 50.23 6 13 1 19.50 0 0 0 0 5 3 0 8 Liberty 50.22 27.90 30.96 9 4 34 30.00 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 9 Michigan State 43.55 27.10 22.57 10 25 2 36.00 0 0 0 0 7 6 0 10 Arizona State 43.44 3.80 41.21 8 6 21 24.50 0 0 0 0 11 1 0 11 Stanford 37.98 26.30 15.85 15 14 25 41.50 0 0 0 0 9 3 0 12 Virginia Tech 36.23 0.60 35.84 12 8 14 27.00 0 0 0 0 11 4 0 13 Utah Valley 32.05 24.90 9.52 16 12 43 49.50 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 14 Concordia-Irvine 29.27 24.20 6.69 19 11 46 53.00 0 0 0 0 11 3 0 15 Texas A&M 28.66 28.20 0.64 23 37 26 73.00 0 0 0 0 9 5 0 16 Oregon 28.32 28.30 0.03 32 36 31 83.50 0 0 0 0 5 5 0 17 New Hampshire 28.19 16.10 14.41 11 7 51 43.50 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 18 Southern Methodist 28.07 27.60 0.64 25 20 57 73.50 0 0 0 0 9 3 0 19 Brigham Young 25.56 23.40 2.82 20 34 17 62.50 0 0 0 0 7 6 0 20 Arizona 25.54 24.30 1.63 26 22 37 66.50 0 0 0 0 7 4 0 21 Minnesota 25.16 21.10 5.15 22 21 28 57.00 0 0 0 0 10 5 0 22 Indiana 24.89 24.70 0.25 28 28 42 77.00 0 0 0 0 7 4 0 23 Washington 24.70 24.70 0.00 44 58 40 122.00 0 0 0 0 6 7 0 24 Simon Fraser 23.90 23.90 0.00 58 52 65 142.50 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 25 Clemson 23.62 21.00 3.32 24 19 36 61.00 0 0 0 0 10 5 0 26 Colorado State 23.40 23.40 0.00 35 59 10 99.00 0 0 0 0 3 8 0 27 Kansas 23.31 23.30 0.01 29 24 63 84.50 0 0 0 0 7 2 0 28 Boise State 23.10 23.10 0.00 53 38 74 128.00 0 0 0 0 7 4 0 29 Davenport 22.70 22.70 0.00 18 39 3 58.50 0 0 0 0 4 6 0 30 Santa Clara 22.20 22.20 0.00 38 40 45 100.50 0 0 0 0 6 5 0 31 Boston College 20.74 0.00 20.74 14 18 12 38.00 0 0 0 0 8 4 0 32 Buffalo 19.50 0.60 19.01 13 23 5 38.50 0 0 0 0 6 5 0 33 Texas 18.40 18.40 0.00 40 30 69 104.50 0 0 0 0 8 3 0 34 Missouri 17.50 17.50 0.00 54 44 70 133.00 0 0 0 0 7 4 0 35 USC 16.40 16.40 0.00 39 42 44 103.00 0 0 0 0 7 6 0 36 Florida State Univer 15.09 7.20 8.50 17 26 16 51.00 0 0 0 0 10 7 0 37 Arkansas 13.90 13.90 0.00 50 31 78 120.00 0 0 0 0 10 3 0 38 Purdue 13.40 13.40 0.00 42 47 48 113.00 0 0 0 0 5 6 0 39 Oklahoma 11.40 11.40 0.00 47 71 38 137.00 0 0 0 0 6 8 0 40 Pittsburgh 8.50 8.50 0.00 41 45 54 113.00 0 0 0 0 8 6 0 41 Georgia 4.86 2.10 2.82 21 32 20 63.00 0 0 0 0 7 6 0 42 San Diego State 3.50 3.50 0.00 45 72 22 128.00 0 0 0 0 4 9 0 43 Auburn 1.80 1.80 0.00 36 33 62 100.00 0 0 0 0 8 5 0 44 Grand Canyon 1.50 1.50 0.00 30 49 15 86.50 0 0 0 0 4 7 0 45 Nevada 1.36 1.30 0.06 31 35 30 81.00 0 0 0 0 4 4 0 46 LSU 0.50 0.50 0.00 43 60 35 120.50 0 0 0 0 5 7 0 47 Northeastern 0.11 0.10 0.01 34 41 19 84.50 0 0 0 0 6 7 0 48 Sonoma State 0.06 0.00 0.06 27 46 18 82.00 0 0 0 0 5 6 0 49 Alabama 0.00 0.00 0.00 65 56 64 153.00 0 0 0 0 2 6 0 50 Central Florida 0.00 0.00 0.00 55 63 29 132.50 0 0 0 0 3 7 0 51 Central Michigan 0.00 0.00 0.00 60 55 67 148.50 0 0 0 0 3 6 0 52 Chico State 0.00 0.00 0.00 63 74 41 157.50 0 0 0 0 1 8 0 53 Claremont 0.00 0.00 0.00 62 66 59 157.50 0 0 0 0 4 8 0 54 Dominican 0.00 0.00 0.00 51 54 33 121.50 0 0 0 0 3 7 0 55 East Carolina 0.00 0.00 0.00 59 64 50 148.00 0 0 0 0 4 7 0 56 Elon 0.00 0.00 0.00 69 78 66 180.00 0 0 0 0 2 10 0 57 Florida 0.00 0.00 0.00 49 48 23 108.50 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 58 George Washington 0.00 0.00 0.00 56 70 32 142.00 0 0 0 0 2 8 0 59 Houston 0.00 0.00 0.00 73 43 56 144.00 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 60 Idaho 0.00 0.00 0.00 79 27 79 145.50 0 0 0 0 7 1 0 61 Illinois 0.00 0.00 0.00 77 67 77 182.50 0 0 0 0 1 7 0 62 Illinois State 0.00 0.00 0.00 76 68 75 181.50 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 63 Iowa State 0.00 0.00 0.00 74 76 68 184.00 0 0 0 0 2 8 0 65 Ole Miss 0.00 0.00 0.00 61 69 58 159.00 0 0 0 0 3 7 0 66 NC State 0.00 0.00 0.00 57 61 61 148.50 0 0 0 0 5 6 0 67 Nebraska 0.00 0.00 0.00 70 62 49 156.50 0 0 0 0 1 7 0 68 North Texas 0.00 0.00 0.00 75 77 73 188.50 0 0 0 0 2 7 0 70 Oregon State 0.00 0.00 0.00 71 75 52 172.00 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 72 South Florida 0.00 0.00 0.00 78 57 76 173.00 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 73 Tennessee 0.00 0.00 0.00 72 81 55 180.50 0 0 0 0 3 9 0 74 Texas Christian 0.00 0.00 0.00 52 82 24 146.00 0 0 0 0 3 10 0 75 Texas State 0.00 0.00 0.00 67 79 60 176.00 0 0 0 0 3 8 0 76 Texas Tech 0.00 0.00 0.00 64 50 72 150.00 0 0 0 0 3 4 0 77 UC Santa Barbara 0.00 0.00 0.00 33 65 4 100.00 0 0 0 0 2 10 0 78 UCLA 0.00 0.00 0.00 66 73 47 162.50 0 0 0 0 3 8 0 79 UNLV 0.00 0.00 0.00 68 80 53 174.50 0 0 0 0 2 9 0 80 Vanderbilt 0.00 0.00 0.00 48 53 39 120.50 0 0 0 0 5 6 0 81 West Virginia 0.00 0.00 0.00 37 51 27 101.50 0 0 0 0 5 6 0 82 Western Michigan 0.00 0.00 0.00 46 29 71 110.50 0 0 0 0 6 3 0