Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below. Last years at-large accuracy: 8 out of 8 or 100%.
 Last 6 years at-large accuracy: 46 out of 48 or 95.8%.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division I Championship Tournament

For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide. The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Won-loss records [2] strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [3] Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [4] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [5] Power Ratings Rank) Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Note that the SOS on Laxpower computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? RNK TEAMNAME TOURN AUTO AT-LARGE RANK TOTAL SEL QUAL SEL RPI QW SOS PR W L T PROB PROB PROB [3] [4] [2] [5] [1] 1 Arizona State 0.00 1.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 2 Boston College 0.00 19.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 3 Buffalo 0.00 20.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 4 Central Michigan 0.00 18.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 5 Chapman 0.00 8.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 6 Colorado 0.00 26.20 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 7 Colorado State 0.00 24.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 8 Connecticut 0.00 21.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 9 Davenport 0.00 17.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 10 George Washington 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 11 Idaho 0.00 6.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 12 Illinois 0.00 10.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 13 Illinois State 0.00 12.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 14 Indiana 0.00 15.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 15 Kansas 0.00 10.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 16 Liberty 0.00 4.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 17 Miami 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 18 Michigan State 0.00 15.40 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 19 Nevada 0.00 8.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 20 New Hampshire 0.00 19.50 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 21 Northeastern 0.00 19.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 22 Oakland 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 23 Oregon State 0.00 14.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 24 Pittsburgh 0.00 17.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 25 San Diego State 0.00 15.20 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 26 Sierra Nevada 0.00 14.70 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 27 UNLV 0.00 9.60 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 28 Utah Valley 0.00 24.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 29 Virginia Tech 0.00 1.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 30 Washington 0.00 16.80 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 31 West Virginia 0.00 2.30 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 32 Western Michigan 0.00 15.10 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 0 0 0 33 Texas A&M 92.12 9.20 91.33 3 1 4 89.90 4 0 0 34 Dominican 86.77 15.90 84.26 18 4 29 88.73 2 0 0 35 Minnesota 71.75 15.70 66.48 6 15 49 87.37 2 0 0 36 Brigham Young 70.71 24.40 61.25 28 10 20 87.73 1 0 0 37 Auburn 68.34 9.20 65.14 5 2 3 86.43 3 0 0 38 South Carolina 66.68 7.90 63.82 2 5 7 86.43 1 0 0 39 Georgia Tech 64.02 4.00 62.52 33 14 13 88.73 1 0 0 40 Florida State Univer 63.02 10.30 58.78 8 7 6 85.43 2 1 0 41 Concordia-Irvine 61.52 18.30 52.91 31 12 28 86.73 1 0 0 42 Texas Christian 57.81 12.50 51.78 16 54 2 85.90 1 1 0 43 Missouri 55.85 20.80 44.25 25 16 39 83.70 2 0 0 44 Georgia 54.34 18.10 44.25 13 9 23 81.48 2 1 0 45 USC 53.88 15.70 45.29 1 6 12 81.73 1 0 0 46 Oregon 52.18 23.80 37.24 34 17 50 81.73 1 0 0 47 California 50.66 16.10 41.19 17 3 10 79.98 2 0 0 48 Texas 47.77 8.00 43.22 35 21 21 85.23 1 0 0 49 Stanford 44.01 18.20 31.55 21 20 34 79.98 2 0 0 50 East Carolina 41.99 3.00 40.19 12 33 17 80.43 1 1 0 51 Southern Methodist 37.63 13.50 27.89 15 52 26 79.90 1 1 0 52 Chico State 35.31 0.00 35.31 11 65 22 84.73 0 1 0 53 Purdue 33.89 11.60 25.22 7 18 45 79.48 1 0 0 54 Santa Clara 30.04 8.60 23.46 38 63 8 79.73 1 1 0 55 Oklahoma 29.84 19.80 12.52 19 62 18 78.43 1 1 0 56 Arizona 29.10 5.20 25.22 9 22 24 79.73 1 1 0 57 Vanderbilt 26.26 1.40 25.22 23 76 27 79.48 1 2 0 58 Arkansas 25.77 7.20 20.01 14 8 43 79.03 3 0 0 59 Sonoma State 24.16 10.80 14.98 20 19 9 78.73 1 0 0 60 Simon Fraser 19.50 19.50 0.00 48 72 48 76.73 0 1 0 61 Iowa State 19.20 19.20 0.00 24 75 41 74.37 1 3 0 62 Boise State 18.50 18.50 0.00 42 68 46 70.73 0 1 0 63 Texas State 16.30 16.30 0.00 39 66 14 70.90 0 1 0 64 Clemson 14.80 14.80 0.00 30 11 25 72.44 1 0 0 65 Central Florida 14.80 2.60 12.52 43 26 32 79.23 1 0 0 66 Claremont 13.90 13.90 0.00 29 78 44 64.73 0 3 0 67 Elon 11.80 11.80 0.00 32 13 47 75.44 1 0 0 68 UC Santa Barbara 9.88 1.50 8.51 36 80 11 79.98 0 2 0 69 LSU 9.49 0.20 9.31 26 77 1 78.43 1 3 0 70 North Texas 9.00 9.00 0.00 47 71 40 73.23 0 1 0 71 Cal Poly 7.60 7.60 0.00 10 64 16 76.98 0 1 0 72 Florida 6.93 0.00 6.93 44 34 38 79.23 1 0 0 73 Grand Canyon 5.70 5.70 0.00 45 69 37 75.73 0 1 0 74 Tennessee 5.60 5.60 0.00 49 53 5 79.23 3 0 0 75 UCLA 5.30 5.30 0.00 50 74 42 71.73 0 1 0 76 Texas Tech 4.30 4.30 0.00 40 67 31 77.90 1 1 0 77 NC State 2.60 2.60 0.00 27 79 30 76.48 2 2 0 78 Alabama 0.50 0.50 0.00 41 82 33 72.44 0 3 0 79 Houston 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 61 36 70.90 0 1 0 80 Ole Miss 0.00 0.00 0.00 46 70 15 69.73 0 1 0 81 Nebraska 0.00 0.00 0.00 37 81 35 71.70 0 4 0 82 South Florida 0.00 0.00 0.00 22 73 19 76.43 0 2 0