Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below. Last years at-large accuracy: 8 out of 8 or 100%.
 Last 6 years at-large accuracy: 46 out of 48 or 95.8%.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division I Championship Tournament

For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide. The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins) [5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results against common opponents [-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI) [-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI) [-] Location of the contests Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Note that the SOS on Laxpower computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? RNK TEAMNAME TOURN AUTO AT-LARGE RANK RNK SIGNIFICANT TOTAL SEL QUAL SEL RPI QW SOS RPI+QW+SOS/2 RPI W L W L T PROB PROB PROB SUM [3] [4] [2] [5] [6] [7] [8] [1] 1 High Point 81.61 12.60 78.96 1 1 12 8.00 1 59 0 0 4 0 0 2 Maryland 76.24 16.80 71.44 2 2 18 13.00 2 64 0 0 4 0 0 3 Ohio State 61.17 16.70 53.38 8 4 28 26.00 11 68 0 0 3 0 0 4 Navy 59.26 12.60 53.38 6 7 26 26.00 4 65 0 0 2 0 0 5 Army 55.10 10.40 49.89 10 3 32 29.00 7 53 1 0 3 0 0 6 Drexel 54.74 17.90 44.88 5 27 2 33.00 21 1 0 0 1 1 0 7 Duke 53.38 0.00 53.38 9 5 22 25.00 12 2 0 0 3 1 0 8 Penn State 52.40 18.40 41.67 11 9 33 36.50 9 69 0 0 3 0 0 9 Rutgers 47.89 15.20 38.55 4 32 5 38.50 15 18 0 1 2 1 0 10 Penn 46.85 13.50 38.55 7 31 1 38.50 63 5 0 0 0 1 0 11 Notre Dame 46.52 0.00 46.52 3 21 16 32.00 33 67 0 0 1 0 0 12 Richmond 43.84 12.90 35.52 19 10 25 41.50 5 6 1 0 2 1 0 13 Hofstra 43.72 18.30 31.11 16 14 34 47.00 18 61 0 0 2 0 0 14 Loyola 43.13 11.80 35.52 18 6 35 41.50 3 62 0 0 2 0 0 15 Colgate 38.50 8.80 32.56 13 20 23 44.50 26 3 0 0 2 1 0 16 Georgetown 37.06 17.10 24.08 22 12 39 53.50 6 57 0 0 2 0 0 17 Vermont 34.62 15.40 22.71 12 33 21 55.50 16 11 0 0 2 1 0 18 Denver 33.86 17.30 20.02 14 34 19 57.50 34 14 0 0 1 1 0 19 Bucknell 28.94 12.60 18.70 15 40 10 60.00 24 12 0 1 1 2 0 20 Hobart 28.25 15.80 14.78 28 13 46 64.00 14 60 1 0 2 0 0 21 VMI 27.99 14.20 16.08 21 23 36 62.00 27 73 0 0 1 0 0 22 Stony Brook 24.49 12.70 13.50 23 41 4 66.00 69 19 0 0 0 1 0 23 UMass 24.49 17.50 8.47 17 53 3 71.50 70 16 0 0 0 2 0 24 Boston U. 24.07 10.90 14.78 25 24 29 63.50 13 13 0 0 3 1 0 25 Lafayette 19.78 9.90 10.97 32 15 42 68.00 31 7 0 0 3 1 0 26 Marquette 19.50 19.50 0.00 52 16 64 100.00 37 63 0 0 2 0 0 27 Villanova 16.60 16.60 0.00 46 38 45 106.50 43 20 0 0 1 1 0 28 Michigan 16.50 16.50 0.00 45 29 47 97.50 29 9 0 0 1 1 0 29 Johns Hopkins 16.40 16.40 0.00 29 61 9 94.50 57 31 0 1 0 2 0 30 Princeton 16.40 16.40 0.00 63 22 72 121.00 64 70 0 0 1 0 0 31 Saint Joseph's 16.14 14.10 2.38 35 17 53 78.50 8 71 1 0 2 0 0 32 Towson 16.00 16.00 0.00 36 18 54 81.00 10 72 1 0 2 0 0 33 Cornell 0.00 15.90 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 50 55 0 0 0 0 0 34 Delaware 15.90 15.90 0.00 41 11 60 82.00 20 56 1 0 2 0 0 35 UMass Lowell 15.70 15.70 0.00 66 42 67 141.50 71 45 0 0 1 1 0 36 Binghamton 15.50 15.50 0.00 44 39 27 96.50 48 22 0 0 0 1 0 37 Harvard 15.20 15.20 0.00 30 48 11 83.50 55 40 0 1 0 1 0 38 Sacred Heart 15.00 15.00 0.00 31 65 24 108.00 17 28 0 0 1 2 0 39 Wagner 15.00 15.00 0.00 61 66 59 156.50 41 43 0 0 1 2 0 40 St. John's 14.90 14.90 0.00 50 30 52 106.00 44 8 0 0 1 1 0 41 Albany 14.80 14.80 0.00 68 44 65 144.50 46 49 0 0 0 1 0 42 Providence 14.60 14.60 0.00 49 63 43 133.50 19 38 1 0 1 2 0 43 Fairfield 14.40 14.40 0.00 33 46 14 86.00 52 36 0 0 0 1 0 44 Hartford 14.10 14.10 0.00 69 47 66 149.00 54 48 0 0 0 1 0 45 Marist 14.00 14.00 0.00 60 59 44 141.00 58 41 0 0 0 2 0 46 Mount St. Mary's 14.00 14.00 0.00 34 67 15 108.50 61 39 0 1 0 2 0 47 Brown 13.90 13.90 0.00 62 19 68 115.00 49 54 0 0 1 0 0 48 Detroit Mercy 13.80 13.80 0.00 58 26 61 114.50 32 4 1 0 1 1 0 49 St. Bonaventure 13.51 11.40 2.38 24 52 6 79.00 68 17 0 1 0 2 0 50 Robert Morris 13.40 13.40 0.00 26 64 7 93.50 66 26 0 0 0 2 0 51 Manhattan 13.30 13.30 0.00 51 62 48 137.00 36 30 0 0 1 2 0 52 Quinnipiac 13.20 13.20 0.00 71 68 73 175.50 65 52 0 0 0 2 0 53 Yale 13.00 13.00 0.00 67 51 63 149.50 73 47 0 0 0 1 0 54 Bryant 12.70 12.70 0.00 48 36 49 108.50 25 25 0 0 1 1 0 55 Holy Cross 12.70 12.70 0.00 43 58 37 119.50 42 35 0 1 1 2 0 56 Air Force 12.60 12.60 0.00 59 35 62 125.00 35 21 0 0 1 1 0 57 Mercer 12.60 12.60 0.00 64 72 55 163.50 59 46 0 0 0 3 0 58 Dartmouth 12.10 12.10 0.00 39 45 20 94.00 51 29 0 0 0 1 0 59 Jacksonville 12.10 12.10 0.00 57 70 40 147.00 56 44 0 1 0 3 0 60 Siena 12.10 12.10 0.00 27 50 8 81.00 67 33 0 1 0 1 0 61 Furman 11.80 11.80 0.00 42 69 30 126.00 28 32 0 0 1 3 0 62 UMBC 11.80 11.80 0.00 37 56 17 101.50 72 15 0 0 0 2 0 63 Canisius 11.40 11.40 0.00 53 60 50 138.00 38 37 0 0 1 2 0 64 Bellarmine 11.20 11.20 0.00 65 71 56 164.00 47 50 0 0 0 3 0 65 Monmouth 10.80 10.80 0.00 70 49 71 154.50 60 51 0 0 0 1 0 66 Lehigh 10.30 10.30 0.00 47 55 41 122.50 30 27 0 0 1 2 0 67 Virginia 9.71 0.00 9.71 20 43 13 69.50 22 10 0 0 1 2 0 68 North Carolina 6.01 0.00 6.01 38 8 57 74.50 23 66 1 0 3 0 0 69 Cleveland State 0.00 0.00 0.00 54 54 51 133.50 40 34 0 0 1 2 0 70 Hampton 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 0 0 0.00 53 58 0 0 0 0 0 71 NJIT 0.00 0.00 0.00 55 73 38 147.00 62 42 0 0 0 3 0 72 Syracuse 0.00 0.00 0.00 56 37 58 122.00 45 23 0 0 1 1 0 73 Utah 0.00 0.00 0.00 40 57 31 112.50 39 24 0 0 1 2 0