Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below. Last years at-large accuracy: 8 out of 8 or 100%.
 Last 6 years at-large accuracy: 46 out of 48 or 95.8%.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division I Championship Tournament

For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide. The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins) [5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results against common opponents [-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI) [-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI) [-] Location of the contests Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Note that the SOS on Laxbytes computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? RNK TEAMNAME TOURN AUTO AT-LARGE RANK RNK SIGNIFICANT TOTAL SEL QUAL SEL RPI QW SOS RPI+QW+SOS/2 RPI W L W L T PROB PROB PROB SUM [3] [4] [2] [5] [6] [7] [8] [1] 1 Army 100.00 100.00 0.00 15 14 24 41.00 19 25 1 2 13 4 0 2 Georgetown 100.00 100.00 0.00 16 13 26 42.00 22 20 1 1 13 4 0 3 Marist 100.00 100.00 0.00 26 28 38 73.00 50 34 0 2 10 6 0 4 Penn 100.00 100.00 0.00 3 4 5 9.50 11 1 0 2 11 3 0 5 Penn State 100.00 100.00 0.00 1 1 12 8.00 3 5 0 1 14 1 0 6 Richmond 100.00 100.00 0.00 19 21 13 46.50 32 21 1 3 10 6 0 7 Robert Morris 100.00 100.00 0.00 24 36 20 70.00 35 40 0 4 9 7 0 8 Towson 100.00 100.00 0.00 6 12 15 25.50 10 14 0 3 11 4 0 9 UMBC 100.00 100.00 0.00 51 53 51 129.50 44 56 3 1 6 8 0 10 Yale 100.00 0.00 100.00 5 5 8 14.00 12 7 1 1 12 3 0 11 Duke 100.00 0.00 100.00 4 3 4 9.00 4 16 2 4 11 4 0 12 Virginia 100.00 0.00 100.00 2 2 11 9.50 6 10 0 3 13 3 0 13 Cornell 86.25 0.00 86.25 12 7 3 20.50 16 2 2 0 10 5 0 14 Loyola 86.25 0.00 86.25 7 8 10 20.00 8 13 1 2 11 4 0 15 Notre Dame 79.94 0.00 79.94 9 11 2 21.00 2 9 1 3 8 6 0 16 Johns Hopkins 68.26 0.00 68.26 8 15 1 23.50 5 3 0 2 8 7 0 17 Maryland 57.78 0.00 57.78 11 6 17 25.50 7 4 1 0 11 4 0 18 Syracuse 48.43 0.00 48.43 10 9 16 27.00 1 23 2 2 9 4 0 19 North Carolina 16.40 0.00 16.40 18 16 6 37.00 15 6 2 0 8 7 0 20 Denver 12.48 0.00 12.48 13 17 18 39.00 13 17 1 3 10 5 0 21 Villanova 5.52 0.00 5.52 17 23 9 44.50 14 15 2 2 8 7 0 22 High Point 4.55 0.00 4.55 20 10 30 45.00 20 60 3 2 13 3 0 23 Ohio State 2.96 0.00 2.96 14 18 31 47.50 9 19 2 2 8 4 0 24 UMass 0.01 0.00 0.01 21 19 37 58.50 25 30 1 2 10 5 0 25 Air Force 0.00 0.00 0.00 23 22 28 59.00 36 32 1 1 10 5 0 26 Albany 0.00 0.00 0.00 49 49 40 118.00 52 37 1 0 5 9 0 27 Bellarmine 0.00 0.00 0.00 63 65 62 159.00 62 61 1 1 3 10 0 28 Binghamton 0.00 0.00 0.00 69 67 63 167.50 61 66 2 1 2 11 0 29 Boston U. 0.00 0.00 0.00 27 27 42 75.00 23 50 2 5 11 6 0 30 Brown 0.00 0.00 0.00 32 34 19 75.50 37 18 1 2 7 9 0 31 Bryant 0.00 0.00 0.00 62 69 59 160.50 60 62 1 1 3 11 0 32 Bucknell 0.00 0.00 0.00 36 48 23 95.50 33 28 3 0 6 9 0 33 Canisius 0.00 0.00 0.00 54 52 52 132.00 48 65 4 3 8 8 0 34 Cleveland State 0.00 0.00 0.00 43 31 41 94.50 55 24 1 0 8 7 0 35 Colgate 0.00 0.00 0.00 47 51 39 117.50 27 43 2 1 4 9 0 36 Dartmouth 0.00 0.00 0.00 70 64 64 166.00 69 55 1 0 2 11 0 37 Delaware 0.00 0.00 0.00 33 20 46 76.00 41 12 1 0 10 5 0 38 Detroit Mercy 0.00 0.00 0.00 48 43 61 121.50 47 58 3 4 8 7 0 39 Drexel 0.00 0.00 0.00 28 44 27 85.50 17 35 2 3 7 8 0 40 Fairfield 0.00 0.00 0.00 53 57 48 134.00 56 42 1 0 5 9 0 41 Furman 0.00 0.00 0.00 58 61 44 141.00 68 45 1 1 4 10 0 42 Hampton 0.00 0.00 0.00 73 29 73 138.50 72 73 0 0 6 5 0 43 Hartford 0.00 0.00 0.00 64 68 65 164.50 54 69 3 2 4 11 0 44 Harvard 0.00 0.00 0.00 45 45 34 107.00 40 27 1 0 5 8 0 45 Hobart 0.00 0.00 0.00 29 24 70 88.00 46 38 0 1 11 5 0 46 Hofstra 0.00 0.00 0.00 44 54 33 114.50 26 39 2 1 5 9 0 47 Holy Cross 0.00 0.00 0.00 35 38 45 95.50 31 41 3 3 7 7 0 48 Jacksonville 0.00 0.00 0.00 40 47 21 97.50 43 29 2 1 6 9 0 49 Lafayette 0.00 0.00 0.00 60 66 58 155.00 67 47 0 0 4 11 0 50 Lehigh 0.00 0.00 0.00 30 32 14 69.00 29 31 4 3 9 8 0 51 Manhattan 0.00 0.00 0.00 66 56 72 158.00 63 72 3 0 6 8 0 52 Marquette 0.00 0.00 0.00 38 39 35 94.50 21 33 3 3 6 8 0 53 Mercer 0.00 0.00 0.00 68 70 54 165.00 64 59 1 0 1 12 0 54 Michigan 0.00 0.00 0.00 37 41 25 90.50 18 22 1 1 4 9 0 55 Monmouth 0.00 0.00 0.00 61 60 68 155.00 65 67 1 1 4 8 0 56 Mount St. Mary's 0.00 0.00 0.00 34 33 29 81.50 42 36 2 1 9 7 0 57 Navy 0.00 0.00 0.00 31 35 32 82.00 30 26 1 1 6 7 0 58 NJIT 0.00 0.00 0.00 71 72 60 173.00 71 68 1 1 2 13 0 59 Princeton 0.00 0.00 0.00 25 25 22 61.00 34 11 1 1 7 7 0 60 Providence 0.00 0.00 0.00 46 55 43 122.50 28 48 4 1 7 9 0 61 Quinnipiac 0.00 0.00 0.00 50 40 57 118.50 58 54 2 2 9 7 0 62 Rutgers 0.00 0.00 0.00 22 26 7 51.50 24 8 1 1 7 8 0 63 Sacred Heart 0.00 0.00 0.00 39 37 47 99.50 51 49 1 1 9 6 0 64 Saint Joseph's 0.00 0.00 0.00 52 46 53 124.50 57 44 1 0 7 7 0 65 Siena 0.00 0.00 0.00 56 50 69 140.50 59 63 1 1 6 7 0 66 St. Bonaventure 0.00 0.00 0.00 67 73 49 164.50 73 64 0 0 0 13 0 67 St. John's 0.00 0.00 0.00 57 63 56 148.00 53 51 1 0 4 10 0 68 Stony Brook 0.00 0.00 0.00 41 30 55 98.50 39 52 1 2 9 6 0 69 UMass Lowell 0.00 0.00 0.00 59 62 67 154.50 49 70 3 2 5 9 0 70 Utah 0.00 0.00 0.00 55 58 36 131.00 45 46 2 1 5 10 0 71 Vermont 0.00 0.00 0.00 42 42 50 109.00 38 53 1 2 8 7 0 72 VMI 0.00 0.00 0.00 65 59 66 157.00 70 57 0 1 4 9 0 73 Wagner 0.00 0.00 0.00 72 71 71 178.50 66 71 2 0 2 12 0