Automatic Qualifier and At-Large Probabilities

 AQ (left); At-Large (right). Complete List below. Last years at-large accuracy: 8 out of 8 or 100%.
 Last 6 years at-large accuracy: 46 out of 48 or 95.8%.
 
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Probability for receiving an invitation to the NCAA Men s Division I Championship Tournament

For an explanation of how the probabilities are calculated see Guide. The sum of a team s rpi + qw +1/2 sos is a key indicator of the at-large probability. The Division I Men s Lacrosse Championship is a 17-team, single-elimination tournament. Nine conferences are eligible for automatic qualification. However, the two lowest-ranked AQ teams, regardless of conference RPI, will compete in play-in games to determine the final team in the 16-team bracket. The remaining teams are selected at large. If a team has an AQ bid then its at-large probability goes to 0.00. Primary Criteria for Selecting At-Large Teams [1] Strength of Schedule (SOS) Only Top 10 based on RPI* [2] Results of Rating Pertcentage Index (RPI) [3] Record against teams ranked 1-5, 6-10, 11-20, and 21+ [4] Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins) [5] Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses) [-] Head-to-head competition [-] Results against common opponents [-] Significant wins (defeating teams ranked higher in RPI) [-] Significant losses (defeated by teams ranked lower in RPI) [-] Location of the contests Probabilities are based on current data. As rankings and records change, so do the probabilities. Note that the SOS on Laxpower computes all games whereas the SOS appearing here considers only the 10 highest ranked teams. The NCAA has excluded Hampton from the RPI calculation. WHAT IF? scenarios where you can assign a win or loss to remaining games can be found at What If? RNK TEAMNAME TOURN AUTO AT-LARGE RANK RNK SIGNIFICANT TOTAL SEL QUAL SEL RPI QW SOS RPI+QW+SOS/2 RPI W L W L T PROB PROB PROB SUM [3] [4] [2] [5] [6] [7] [8] [1] 1 Duke 100.00 0.00 100.00 3 2 1 5.50 2 22 1 3 10 3 0 2 Penn 100.00 30.90 100.00 2 5 4 9.00 5 2 0 2 7 3 0 3 Penn State 100.00 28.00 100.00 1 1 11 7.50 4 4 0 1 10 1 0 4 Virginia 94.46 0.00 94.46 6 4 7 13.50 12 11 1 2 10 3 0 5 Syracuse 77.50 0.00 77.50 4 8 9 16.50 1 21 1 3 8 3 0 6 Maryland 67.38 21.90 58.23 8 3 18 20.00 7 3 1 1 10 2 0 7 Yale 62.94 26.00 49.92 5 6 22 22.00 10 5 1 1 8 2 0 8 Cornell 57.33 14.80 49.92 14 7 3 22.50 18 1 2 0 8 4 0 9 Loyola 55.66 27.30 39.01 9 11 10 25.00 6 14 1 2 9 3 0 10 Notre Dame 42.45 0.00 42.45 10 13 2 24.00 3 10 2 2 6 5 0 11 Ohio State 36.87 13.40 27.10 7 10 24 29.00 9 7 0 1 8 2 0 12 Villanova 35.66 19.60 19.97 11 18 6 32.00 11 9 1 2 7 5 0 13 Towson 34.89 22.50 15.99 12 15 15 34.50 8 17 1 3 7 4 0 14 Johns Hopkins 30.28 21.60 11.07 13 22 5 37.50 13 6 0 0 6 5 0 15 Mount St. Mary's 28.50 28.50 0.00 39 30 45 91.50 45 39 2 1 8 5 0 16 Denver 27.96 22.30 7.28 15 14 23 40.50 14 15 1 1 7 4 0 17 Vermont 26.70 26.70 0.00 44 31 57 103.50 41 55 1 1 7 4 0 18 Albany 26.50 26.50 0.00 47 37 42 105.00 51 29 1 0 5 6 0 19 Lehigh 25.80 25.80 0.00 27 26 26 66.00 30 27 3 2 8 5 0 20 Marist 25.70 25.70 0.00 37 35 46 95.00 54 43 0 1 7 5 0 21 Delaware 25.40 25.40 0.00 28 12 61 70.50 39 12 0 0 10 2 0 22 Hobart 25.30 25.30 0.00 29 16 63 76.50 47 30 0 1 9 3 0 23 Air Force 24.31 24.30 0.01 19 25 28 58.00 31 36 0 2 8 4 0 24 Army 24.31 23.80 0.66 17 19 30 51.00 22 26 0 2 9 3 0 25 Richmond 24.10 24.10 0.00 24 24 32 64.00 36 18 1 1 7 5 0 26 Canisius 23.40 23.40 0.00 48 38 54 113.00 40 60 3 3 8 5 0 27 Providence 23.30 23.30 0.00 45 47 44 114.00 29 52 3 1 7 6 0 28 High Point 22.61 22.60 0.01 23 9 52 58.00 23 69 3 2 10 2 0 29 UMass 21.62 21.60 0.02 21 21 31 57.50 25 20 1 1 8 4 0 30 Stony Brook 21.20 21.20 0.00 51 32 58 112.00 42 49 2 1 7 5 0 31 Detroit Mercy 18.90 18.90 0.00 40 28 62 99.00 49 47 2 2 7 4 0 32 Georgetown 18.45 17.70 0.91 16 20 29 50.50 17 24 1 1 9 4 0 33 Sacred Heart 18.00 18.00 0.00 46 48 43 115.50 44 50 1 1 7 6 0 34 Hartford 17.10 17.10 0.00 60 68 59 157.50 52 68 3 1 4 9 0 35 Brown 16.60 16.60 0.00 26 39 20 75.00 24 23 1 2 5 7 0 36 Boston U. 16.35 16.30 0.06 20 23 27 56.50 26 40 2 3 9 4 0 37 Bellarmine 15.40 15.40 0.00 68 65 70 168.00 60 67 3 1 3 8 0 38 Marquette 15.40 15.40 0.00 36 36 41 92.50 28 35 1 3 6 6 0 39 Quinnipiac 14.70 14.70 0.00 54 43 66 130.00 59 61 2 1 6 5 0 40 Siena 14.50 14.50 0.00 53 44 65 129.50 58 57 1 1 6 5 0 41 Robert Morris 13.90 13.90 0.00 38 54 25 104.50 46 41 1 3 5 7 0 42 Drexel 13.80 13.80 0.00 30 49 38 98.00 16 45 1 2 5 6 0 43 Saint Joseph's 13.70 13.70 0.00 52 45 48 121.00 53 46 2 0 6 6 0 44 Hofstra 13.50 13.50 0.00 35 55 16 98.00 21 34 2 2 4 8 0 45 Jacksonville 13.30 13.30 0.00 43 53 19 105.50 37 33 2 0 4 8 0 46 Rutgers 12.50 12.40 0.11 22 27 12 55.00 19 16 1 1 6 6 0 47 Harvard 6.30 6.30 0.00 34 40 35 91.50 35 31 1 0 5 6 0 48 Holy Cross 6.20 6.20 0.00 32 34 47 89.50 27 42 2 3 6 5 0 49 North Carolina 5.31 0.00 5.31 18 17 14 42.00 20 8 1 0 7 5 0 50 Princeton 5.00 5.00 0.00 25 29 21 64.50 34 13 1 1 6 6 0 51 UMBC 4.40 4.40 0.00 57 60 60 147.00 57 53 1 0 3 7 0 52 UMass Lowell 3.90 3.90 0.00 58 64 56 150.00 55 65 2 1 4 8 0 53 Fairfield 3.20 3.20 0.00 49 52 39 120.50 50 37 1 1 5 7 0 54 Michigan 2.70 2.70 0.00 42 46 17 96.50 32 19 0 0 3 8 0 55 Monmouth 2.70 2.70 0.00 62 59 68 155.00 65 64 0 1 3 7 0 56 St. John's 1.70 1.70 0.00 56 61 51 142.50 43 54 1 0 4 8 0 57 Bryant 0.40 0.40 0.00 61 67 50 153.00 61 63 1 1 3 9 0 58 Dartmouth 0.40 0.40 0.00 69 63 67 165.50 68 56 0 0 2 9 0 59 Navy 0.40 0.40 0.00 31 42 37 91.50 33 32 0 1 5 6 0 60 Binghamton 0.20 0.20 0.00 70 72 53 168.50 71 66 0 0 0 11 0 61 Bucknell 0.20 0.20 0.00 33 50 13 89.50 38 25 1 0 4 8 0 62 Mercer 0.20 0.20 0.00 64 69 49 157.50 62 59 0 1 1 10 0 63 Wagner 0.20 0.20 0.00 72 70 71 177.50 66 72 2 0 2 10 0 64 Furman 0.10 0.10 0.00 59 62 40 141.00 64 48 1 1 3 9 0 65 Manhattan 0.10 0.10 0.00 67 57 72 160.00 63 71 3 0 5 7 0 66 Cleveland State 0.00 0.00 0.00 50 41 33 107.50 56 28 2 0 6 7 0 67 Colgate 0.00 0.00 0.00 41 51 8 96.00 15 38 2 1 3 8 0 68 Hampton 0.00 0.00 0.00 73 33 73 142.50 72 73 0 0 5 4 0 69 Lafayette 0.00 0.00 0.00 63 66 55 156.50 67 51 0 0 4 9 0 70 NJIT 0.00 0.00 0.00 71 71 64 174.00 70 70 1 1 2 11 0 71 St. Bonaventure 0.00 0.00 0.00 66 73 36 157.00 73 62 0 1 0 13 0 72 Utah 0.00 0.00 0.00 55 58 34 130.00 48 44 1 1 4 9 0 73 VMI 0.00 0.00 0.00 65 56 69 155.50 69 58 0 1 4 7 0